ATL: RICHARD - Models

[LarryWx]

I must say that the 12Z Euro is at least mildly interesting in that it shows what looks like it could be a 1011 mb TD at hour 96 at ~100 miles E of Honduras (a little better organized than the 0Z Euro and much better organized than the 12Z gfs' essentially nothing n the W. Caribbean. After that, it moves slowly WSW into Nicaragua/Honduras and sort of weakens.

Regardless, the bottom line is that the Euro has now become the more interesting of it and the gfs to me as of 12Z today.

[cycloneye]

12z Models has it moving NW.

Code: Select all

278
WHXX01 KWBC 181232
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC MON OCT 18 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101018 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101018  1200   101019  0000   101019  1200   101020  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.1N  82.5W   15.8N  83.8W   16.6N  84.9W   17.4N  85.6W
BAMD    15.1N  82.5W   16.4N  83.5W   18.1N  83.4W   20.0N  82.0W
BAMM    15.1N  82.5W   16.1N  83.5W   17.1N  83.8W   18.0N  83.5W
LBAR    15.1N  82.5W   16.8N  83.6W   18.9N  84.0W   21.3N  83.1W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101020  1200   101021  1200   101022  1200   101023  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.0N  86.0W   17.6N  87.1W   16.7N  89.6W   17.2N  92.5W
BAMD    21.6N  79.5W   25.8N  71.0W   32.5N  58.8W   40.4N  45.7W
BAMM    18.3N  83.0W   17.5N  82.4W   15.9N  84.5W   15.2N  89.4W
LBAR    23.5N  80.8W   30.4N  72.3W   38.7N  54.5W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        43KTS          42KTS          40KTS          45KTS
DSHP        43KTS          42KTS          40KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.1N LONCUR =  82.5W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  13.1N LONM12 =  81.0W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  79.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[KWT]

Well the models are just about everywhere right now, really have got a 360 degree spread!

[caneseddy]

12z NAM keeps our system offshore but then bends it south into Honduras and leaves it over Honduras for several days

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[LarryWx]

Folks, continuing with the more favorable trend theme, the 12Z gfs is the most favorable looking run of at least the last four gfs runs by a good margin with a closed LLC about 100 miles ENE of the HN/NC border out in the open w. Caribbean at hour 72. The prior three ruins had virtually no W. Caribbean LLC. Not only that, the energy/moisture is concentrated quite a bit further north than these three runs and this run was still initialized a little too far south. It is all about the trends and they are good right now. The models seem to be playing catch-up.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS shows more favorable upper level winds starting in about 36-48 hours.

[xironman]

GDFL which was really good on Paula is on board

[caneseddy]

GDFL which was really good on Paula is on board

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/5686/slp16.png

That run is eerily similar to many of the GFS runs from last week having the storm come into South Florida...not saying it will follow that pattern, just wanted to point it out

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

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086
WHXX01 KWBC 181828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC MON OCT 18 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101018 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101018  1800   101019  0600   101019  1800   101020  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.7N  83.2W   16.5N  84.3W   17.2N  85.0W   17.8N  85.4W
BAMD    15.7N  83.2W   17.2N  83.8W   18.9N  82.9W   20.4N  81.1W
BAMM    15.7N  83.2W   16.7N  83.8W   17.6N  83.7W   18.2N  83.2W
LBAR    15.7N  83.2W   17.3N  83.8W   19.4N  83.7W   21.4N  82.4W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          35KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101020  1800   101021  1800   101022  1800   101023  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.0N  85.4W   16.3N  86.4W   14.9N  88.9W   14.4N  92.1W
BAMD    21.6N  78.5W   24.7N  70.9W   29.4N  59.9W   33.8N  48.6W
BAMM    18.1N  82.6W   16.5N  82.7W   14.8N  85.7W   13.9N  90.9W
LBAR    23.8N  80.3W   29.9N  72.3W   38.1N  55.3W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        39KTS          41KTS          49KTS          55KTS
DSHP        39KTS          41KTS          33KTS          31KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.7N LONCUR =  83.2W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  14.3N LONM12 =  81.8W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  12.8N LONM24 =  80.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[caneseddy]

Both the 00z run and 12z run of the HWRF have this system becoming Hurricane Richard and looping it back into Honduras; however, the 12z run has Richard pulling an identical track as Matthew whe landfalling in Central America as a major hurricane

00z:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt ... hwrf_n.cgi

12z: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt ... hwrf_n.cgi

[caneseddy]

18z NAM does not do much with 99L

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[LarryWx]

18z NAM does not do much with 99L

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Since the NAM loves to develop numerous false TC's, that's not a good sign. However, I'm still not giving up on Richard forming from this.

[HURRICANELONNY]

18z NAM does not do much with 99L

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Since the NAM loves to develop numerous false TC's, that's not a good sign. However, I'm still not giving up on Richard forming from this.

If the Nam doesn't develop it. Richard will form.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 190034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC TUE OCT 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101019 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101019  0000   101019  1200   101020  0000   101020  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.0N  82.6W   15.9N  83.5W   16.7N  84.1W   17.2N  84.4W
BAMD    15.0N  82.6W   16.5N  83.1W   17.7N  82.6W   18.4N  81.8W
BAMM    15.0N  82.6W   16.3N  83.0W   17.2N  83.0W   17.6N  82.8W
LBAR    15.0N  82.6W   16.5N  83.2W   18.2N  83.1W   20.0N  82.4W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          34KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          34KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101021  0000   101022  0000   101023  0000   101024  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.0N  84.5W   14.8N  86.2W   12.4N  89.2W   10.8N  91.9W
BAMD    18.6N  80.9W   18.5N  79.8W   18.4N  80.5W   17.8N  83.2W
BAMM    17.3N  82.8W   15.6N  84.2W   13.8N  88.1W   13.1N  93.3W
LBAR    22.0N  81.0W   27.8N  76.1W   34.7N  61.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        43KTS          47KTS          56KTS          58KTS
DSHP        43KTS          41KTS          28KTS          32KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.0N LONCUR =  82.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  14.1N LONM12 =  81.9W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  81.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[SouthDadeFish]

Both the 18Z GFDL and HWRF bring future Richard north a little ways then bounce back into CA.

[xironman]

GDFL stays locked on development, both it and HWRF do a loop near Jamaica and come back to hit the Yucatan.



Euro kills it after a couple of days, but a similar track

[weatherwindow]

IF IF IF the gfdl verifies, it would leave 99 just southeast of cozumel. that is normally far enough north to be picked up by one or another short wave...i believe this a threat to western cuba and,possibly, central cuba...obviously, this is an amateur interpretation and all are referred to products issued by nhc

[SouthDadeFish]

In terms of intensification, the GFDL and HWRF are very realistic in my opinion. They wait over a day and a half to strengthen to storm as it gets itself together, then it takes off. We should note from this the potential this storm has. The cat 4 predicted by the GFDL isn't a pretty picture, although the GFDL has been known to overdo things...

[Blown Away]

Do we have the 06z models?

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 191238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC TUE OCT 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101019 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101019  1200   101020  0000   101020  1200   101021  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  83.3W   17.3N  83.6W   17.7N  83.6W   17.5N  83.3W
BAMD    16.5N  83.3W   18.3N  82.9W   19.8N  81.5W   21.2N  79.2W
BAMM    16.5N  83.3W   17.6N  83.1W   18.1N  82.7W   18.0N  82.2W
LBAR    16.5N  83.3W   18.2N  83.2W   19.9N  82.5W   21.8N  81.4W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          31KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          31KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101021  1200   101022  1200   101023  1200   101024  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.6N  83.3W   14.3N  84.2W   12.7N  86.1W   12.3N  88.9W
BAMD    23.0N  76.1W   28.5N  65.9W   34.7N  50.2W   40.3N  36.4W
BAMM    17.4N  82.1W   15.8N  83.8W   14.4N  87.6W   14.1N  92.7W
LBAR    24.3N  79.6W   31.9N  70.6W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        38KTS          43KTS          56KTS          61KTS
DSHP        38KTS          43KTS          29KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.5N LONCUR =  83.3W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  15.1N LONM12 =  82.7W DIRM12 = 329DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  14.1N LONM24 =  81.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM