ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

18/1745 UTC 15.5N 83.5W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic

1st estimate

[wxman57]

Looks like the trof axis bypasses 99L on Wednesday. Building high pressure over the NW and north-central Gulf Thursday would move it back to the south and southwest then west. High to the north over the eastern Gulf is quite strong by Fri/Sat, pushing whatever is there SW-WSW into the southern Yucatan or Honduras.

If it does stay out over the water and stall as per the 12Z GFS, EC and Canadian, then I don't see much to keep it below hurricane strength. In fact, could be a major hurricane as per the GFDL if it stays over water.

[drezee]

Well someone thinks we have a closed rotary circulation

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well someone thinks we have a closed rotary circulation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/MT ... 8_SWND.png

looking at vis. loop. I concur:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

[SouthDadeFish]

850 mb vorticity is stacked with the convection. However, the mid level center appears to be NW of this convection.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 99, 2010101900, , BEST, 0, 150N, 826W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[SouthDadeFish]

Woah, by the 00Z best track, this thing looks pretty well organized. Unless my eyes are deceiving me, is that banding starting to develop in the recent frames, spiraling into the main convective mass?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

[MGC]

Looks to me like a weak circulation is near 17N 84W.....don't know what level it is at. Convection looks to be displaced to the SE....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity continues to increase

[wxman57]

Looks to me like a weak circulation is near 17N 84W.....don't know what level it is at. Convection looks to be displaced to the SE....MGC

Surface obs would argue against a position so far north. Instead, obs point to a center near the 00Z NHC position of 15N/82.6W. That's centered under the convection. See the red crosshairs in the image below. With the system remaining over water for the next 3-4 days, I think that development chances over the next 48 hrs would be closer to 80-90% than the 30% the NHC is estimating. In fact, I think it could well qualify for TD status tomorrow. Of course, the NHC didn't classify Paula for another 48-60 hours after it appeared to become a TD in the same area, so who knows when it would be upgraded?

As for a track - a slow north drift for a few days, followed by a turn back to the south, then southwest then west and inland into Honduras, possibly even Belize.

[gatorcane]

Yeah it's looking good. It has definitely gotten further north than we thought a few days ago where the general consensus was inland into central america already.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Dean4Storms]

Scratching my head a bit on this one. I would think by the increased organization we are seeing tonight that a deeper system could unfold. Could a deeper system get further northward faster before the ridging over the Gulf turned it back south and then eventually west allowing to maybe move inland over the Yucatan and then turn more NW around the SW periphery of the Gulf ridge and make it into the Gulf?

[gatorcane]

Scratching my head a bit on this one. I would think by the increased organization we are seeing tonight that a deeper system could unfold. Could a deeper system get further northward faster before the ridging over the Gulf turned it back south and then eventually west allowing to maybe move inland over the Yucatan and then turn more NW around the SW periphery of the Gulf ridge and make it into the Gulf?

That's what I am wondering. Ridging doesn't build until days 4 and 5

[abajan]

Looking very good now IMO. I’d say formation potential within 48 hours should be up to at least 50% by the next TWO.

[Ntxw]

Scratching my head a bit on this one. I would think by the increased organization we are seeing tonight that a deeper system could unfold. Could a deeper system get further northward faster before the ridging over the Gulf turned it back south and then eventually west allowing to maybe move inland over the Yucatan and then turn more NW around the SW periphery of the Gulf ridge and make it into the Gulf?

Saving grace is that there is a lot of shear from the Yucatan to Cuba north. It won't really die down until that ridge builds in. Trade off one for the other which right now looks to keep this potential problem away from U.S. interest atm.

[Florida1118]

Looking very good now IMO. I’d say formation potential within 48 hours should be up to at least 50% by the next TWO.

Im going with 60%...I mean really you cant say its going to plow into land anymore, so not much inhibiting it.

[Florida1118]

Nevermind...They dont like him.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HONDURAS-
NICARAGUA BORDER. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.