Five years ago tonight...

[neospaceblue]

The unimaginable began to happen.

Tuesday, October 18, 2005
8:00 PM EDT

...WILMA UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

11:00 PM EDT

...WILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH WILMA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY BECOMING A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.

Wednesday, October 19, 2005
12:32 AM EDT

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: WILMA (24L)
Mission Number: 07
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 07
Time: 04:32:40Z
Latitude: 16.9°N
Longitude: 81.9°W
Location: 218 mi NNE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
Minimum height at 850 mb 516 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: ESE (116°) @ 187 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 3 mi NNE (15°)
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 901 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 63°F at 5043 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 79°F at 5108 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 77°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 5 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 850 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

1:00 AM EDT

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS 150 MPH WINDS IN WILMA...

AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 150
MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE
HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB...26.61 INCHES.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE.

Supplementary Vortex Data Message
Inbound Ob #1: 18.6°N 080.9°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: ESE (110°) @ 59 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 18.4°N 081.1°W; 850mb height: 4700 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 61 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 18.2°N 081.2°W; 850mb height: 4700 feet; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 68 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 18.0°N 081.4°W; 850mb height: 4700 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 67 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 17.8°N 081.6°W; 850mb height: 4600 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 73 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 17.6°N 081.7°W; 850mb height: 4500 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 84 mph
Inbound Ob #7: 17.3°N 081.7°W; 850mb height: 4400 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 64°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 60 mph
Inbound Ob #8: 17.1°N 081.8°W; 850mb height: 4200 feet; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 66°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 71 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 187 mph at 16.9°N 081.9°W
First inbound ob surface wind: NA

Outbound Ob #1: 16.6°N 082.0°W; 700mb height: 12900 feet; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Flt level wind: W (280°) @ 50 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 16.4°N 082.2°W; 700mb height: 13100 feet; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: WNW (300°) @ 40 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 16.3°N 082.4°W; 700mb height: 9900 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: NW (310°) @ 55 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 16.1°N 082.7°W; 700mb height: 9900 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: NW (320°) @ 58 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 16.0°N 082.8°W; 700mb height: 10000 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: NW (320°) @ 53 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 15.8°N 083.0°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: WNW (290°) @ 48 mph
Outbound Ob #7: 15.6°N 083.2°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: NW (320°) @ 53 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 161 mph at 16.8°N 081.9°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: NA
Storm Name: WILMA (24L)
Mission Number: 07
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY

2:30 AM EDT

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

4:00 AM EDT

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: WILMA (24L)
Mission Number: 07
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 16
Time: 08:00:30Z
Latitude: 17.1°N
Longitude: 82.3°W
Location: 219 mi NNE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
Minimum height at 700 mb 2082 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NW (320°) @ 191 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 3 mi SW (221°)
Sea level pressure: 884 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 50°F at 10082 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 9984 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 50°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 5 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z

5:00 AM EDT

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884
MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED.

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988.

8:00 AM EDT

...WILMA MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE
CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW...

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE
LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

=====================================================

Posts from the night that Wilma bombed:
Discussion Thread
Recon Thread

Show of hands: How many people here had to double take when they woke up that morning and saw that 884 pressure?

[SouthDadeFish]

How I envy those who stayed up to watch the recon data for this. I remember going to sleep that night thinking, wow this thing is just gunna explode. I wake up to a cat five. Unbelievable. We may never see any development quite this rapid for the rest of the century.

[Chacor]

In the Atlantic, probably not; conditions would have to be ridiculously favourable and the pressure gradient would also have to co-operate. Elsewhere in the world... we've just seen with Megi that it's quite possible.

[SouthDadeFish]

Sorry I should have been more specific. I meant the Atlantic. The WPAC is a whole different animal.

[HurricaneBill]

[neospaceblue]

I remember I was 12 years old, and it was my second year tracking hurricanes. I woke up for school that morning and turned on TWC, expecting to see a Category 3 (I wasn't awake for the 11 PM advisory) and screamed when I saw the 884 millibar pressure. I was thinking how crazy it was because just 24 hours before, it was just a tropical storm and 48 hours prior, still a tropical depression.

[Ptarmigan]

Wilma took 4 days from tropical depression to most intense hurricane on record. Wilma had a pinhole eye and was more intense than Gilbert. It would not surprise if the Atlantic Basin has seen more intense hurricane than Wilma in the past.

[Aquawind]

Wow that is a pinhole picture Bill.. Scary memories alright..