WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[shah8]

I'm just looking at the JMA track and forcasted intensity...

Isn't this about to be China's Katrina?

[Chacor]

China has suffered hits at strength before, so I wouldn't quite make that comparison. However, it would be one of the stronger storms, in terms of JMA analysis, to have hit China in recent time.

[hurricaneCW]

Is Hong Kong in danger from what appears to be a large and strengthening typhoon?

[Chacor]

Certainly, Hong Kong is in the five-day cone from both JMA and JTWC. If the JMA forecast verifies, Hong Kong could be looking at being in the 50-kt winds radius.

[shah8]

I've been checking, all of Hong Kong's significant storms were Category 2, and they are typically smallish storms. This is a storm that's looking to be large, and at least cat 3 if models are correct. And this is going to push water up the delta, where the other significant storms (other than Wanda) came from the east. This also seems to be a major rain threat as well, given the waterlogged circumstances in S China.

[supercane]

WTSS20 VHHH 190145
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 190000 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MEGI (1013) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE
EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.




WTPQ20 BABJ 190000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC
00HR 16.3N 118.8E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 16.7N 116.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 18.0N 114.9E 925HPA 57M/S
P+72HR 19.7N 113.7E 925HPA 57M/S
P+96HR 20.8N 112.2E 925HPA 57M/S
P+120HR 22.4N 109.8E 980HPA 30M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 190000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190000UTC 16.6N 118.7E
MOVEMENT WSW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 200000UTC 17.1N 115.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
48HR
POSITION 210000UTC 18.7N 114.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 220000UTC 20.0N 114.5E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[supercane]

JTWC 03Z advisory still at 90kt:

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.7N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.5N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.0N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.6N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 118.6E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS
32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//

[Infdidoll]

I've been checking, all of Hong Kong's significant storms were Category 2, and they are typically smallish storms. This is a storm that's looking to be large, and at least cat 3 if models are correct. And this is going to push water up the delta, where the other significant storms (other than Wanda) came from the east. This also seems to be a major rain threat as well, given the waterlogged circumstances in S China.

I think your observations are very valid, given China's recent situation.

[AussieMark]

Joan and Ivan were 905mb, Keith was 910. Of course, its possible if not probable that all 3 were really under 900.

What about Paka?

[shah8]

Missed out on the the 1937, and the early 1960s typhoons. Those were nasty.

[AussieMark]

Missed out on the the 1937, and the early 1960s typhoons. Those were nasty.

from what I have read Typhoon Vera of 1959 was a beast.

[windysocks]

From the HK Observatory website:

Outlook : Winds strengthening gradually mid-week this week.

Looks like the understatement of the year!

It certainly has been a long time since HK had a Cat 3 or above typhoon. When I was a child in HK we seemed to have at least one ferocious typhoon per summer, but in the last twenty or so years the weather patterns seem to have changed.

I'm a little worried - my home is just a stone's throw from a sea inlet.

[StormingB81]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101019/wl_nm/us_typhoon_2

SOme good news coming out of PI..if there is any..The rice crops werent nearly damaged as they though....and death toll is only 10 right now which people thought would be in the hundreds...

and a slide show

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Typhoon-M ... 022220.jpg

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 16.6N 118.6E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 17.3N 116.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 210000UTC 18.1N 115.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 220000UTC 19.8N 115.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


WTPQ20 BABJ 190300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 190300 UTC
00HR 16.3N 118.7E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 16.8N 116.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 18.2N 114.8E 925HPA 57M/S
P+72HR 20.0N 113.3E 925HPA 57M/S
P+96HR 21.0N 111.9E 925HPA 57M/S
P+120HR 22.5N 109.6E 990HPA 23M/S=


WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TY 15W HAS CONTINUED TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AND HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NM
DIAMETER IRREGULAR EYE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 182321Z TRMM 37H
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND STRONG CORE CONVECTION OVER ALL
QUADRANTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL CHINA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THE TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 72 TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK.
B. TY 15W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24-72 BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING
OF THE WESTERN STR, WHICH HAS SHIFTED WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
AND EVIDENCE OF A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA.
MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE DATA) HAS
SUBSEQUENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A STAIR-STEP PATTERN. ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, JGSM, NOGAPS, GFDN) PLUS WBAR
NOW SUPPORT THIS TRACK AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS. THE GFS INDICATES A SHARP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. ANALYSIS OF
THE GFS SLP FIELDS INDICATES POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A
WEAK SYSTEM FORMING NORTHEAST OF LUZON; A LOBE OF LOWER PRESSURES
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TY 15W IS EVIDENT AS WELL AS THE
INTERACTION. THIS TRACK IS DEEMED AS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STEERING STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING WESTERN STR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CHINA, AND SHOULD TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TY 15W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU
48 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AS THE STR RE-BUILDS NORTH NEAR TAU 72. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION
NEAR TAU 96.//

TXPN23 KNES 190316
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 16.4N
D. 118.7E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...RAGGED EYE WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO SWIRL INTO THE
CENTER MAKES THE PRECISE CENTER LOCATION OF EYE DIFFICULT TO LOCK
DOWN. OW EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MG FOR AN EYE NUMBER OF 4.5. RING OF
BLACK ADDS 0.5, BUT RAGGED EYE SUBTRACTS 0.5 LEAVING A DT OF 4.5. MET
IS A 5.O. PT IS A 4.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
=

613
TCNA20 RJTD 190300
CCAA 19030 47644 MEGI(1013) 17165 11187 133/3 2//// 93005=

[hurricaneCW]

I think the combination of MEGI hitting in a relatively low populated area, MEGI being smaller than the regular pacific typhoon, and how quickly it moved across Luzon really lowered the damage potential. I do think that we'll see a lot more devastation at its 2nd landfall, especially if it landfalls near Hong Kong which is a distinct possibility. It may be weaker than the 1st hit, but it's going to be a lot larger.

[phwxenthusiast]

by the way, Baguio City reported 430mm of rain for the past 24hours... that's almost 16in!!

[Pleasing05]

Im near the NCR area, its still raining here, though its just mild to moderate.

though this troubled me, PAGASA said that it was moving in a quasi-stationary..

Severe Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "JUAN" (MEGI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 19 October 2010
Typhoon "JUAN" has intensified and moved quasi-stationary.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 180 km West Northwest of Dagupan City
Coordinates: 16.5°N, 118.7°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of up to
210 kph
Movement: Forecast to move Quasi-stationary for the next 12 hours then
West Northwest at 7 kph
Forecast Positions:
Wednesday morning: 380 km West Northwest of Dagupan City
Thursday morning: 560 km West Northwest of Dagupan City

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT:

[Pleasing05]

[Chacor]

Megi does appear to have stalled. Hopefully it'll start upwelling itself.