ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

I still don't get the level of potential panic here. Instead of making statements like I’d say formation potential within 48 hours should be up to at least 50% by the next TWO. or Im going with 60%..., why not just sit back, relax with a beverage and wait for NHC to make the calls? So far this year, they've been a lot more accurate this year than any of the panic mongers that have called for total devastation of the entire US coastline several times.

I know this place is mostly opinion, but I half expected some credible statements here. Instead I find some highly questionable conjecture.

[StormingB81]

I say they are just saying what the believe is going to happend...I mean Hurricanes are very unpredictable and some people like to guess and see how close they come to what actually happends...like the poll we took at the begining of the year of how many storms will happen this year...it is a discussion...

[Florida1118]

I still don't get the level of potential panic here. Instead of making statements like I’d say formation potential within 48 hours should be up to at least 50% by the next TWO. or Im going with 60%..., why not just sit back, relax with a beverage and wait for NHC to make the calls? So far this year, they've been a lot more accurate this year than any of the panic mongers that have called for total devastation of the entire US coastline several times.

I know this place is mostly opinion, but I half expected some credible statements here. Instead I find some highly questionable conjecture.

No one is saying the sky is falling and that we need to build bunkers. 2nd, whats the fun in sitting back and relaxing at 2am, All we did was mearly guess on the TWO. I think people have been doing that for....a long time. Please quote 2 or 3 "mongers" on this Invest Discussion.

[abajan]

I still don't get the level of potential panic here. Instead of making statements like I’d say formation potential within 48 hours should be up to at least 50% by the next TWO. or Im going with 60%..., why not just sit back, relax with a beverage and wait for NHC to make the calls? So far this year, they've been a lot more accurate this year than any of the panic mongers that have called for total devastation of the entire US coastline several times.

I know this place is mostly opinion, but I half expected some credible statements here. Instead I find some highly questionable conjecture.

Excuse me? This is a discussion forum not a place to “just sit back, relax with a beverage and wait for NHC to make the calls”. The title of the thread isn’t “ATL : INVEST 99L - Tropical Weather Outlooks”.
What was so incredible about our statements anyway? Most of us here are weather guessers, are we not?

[GCANE]

Structure is defintely looking better.

As SouthDadeFish, Hurakan, and others have been saying, 850mb vorticity is developing nicely.

It looks like the PV is working its way to the surface.

The peristant convection & stratiform precip has developed a warm core and an anti-cyclone is over head.

Most likely the tropopause should continue to rise.

As a result IMHO, there is a good chance this could get a surface circulation going.

From what I see on the latest sounding at 15N 85W, I suspect in the afternoon, as before in this area, surface heating of the landmass could destabilze the air and deep convection could fire and kick up 99L.

[GCANE]

Hmmmm.

To me, it looks like a couple deep infeed-bands are forming on MIMIC-TPW.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[jconsor]

The TPW loop hasn't updated in 24 hours.

[SouthDadeFish]

I believe the NHC went with 30% at 2am because the satellite image isnt telling the whole story with this one. 850mb vorticity is displaced to southern edge of the popcorn convection, and it looks like divergence to the north, partially due to the anticylcone over it, is creating the convection to the north. It still isn't stacked well, with the 500mb vorticity looking almost like a trough or something to me. With all this said, it still is better organized than yesterday, but still has a ways to go.

Keep in mind I'm just an amateur so I could be completely wrong

[GCANE]

The TPW loop hasn't updated in 24 hours.

Thanks for pointing that out Jconsor.

Here is a more up-to-date TPW.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170948.GIF

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

Looking very interesting this morning

[Cyclone1]

Indeed it is looking interesting. Looks like a future Richard.

[HURAKAN]

1st visible

[Vortex]

appears to be forming further north..quite abit further north than the models were implying on Sunday...

[cycloneye]

This would be already in the EPAC as the models had in the past days.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 99, 2010101912, , BEST, 0, 165N, 833W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Frank2]

Both Key West and Miami currently have hurricane-force winds - at 200 mb from the west-southwest - so 99L is not forecast to be an issue for Florida (per TWC)...

It's been mentioned on this site several times over the past few years that the western Caribbean has an almost year-round hurricane season, at least when it comes to favorable upper-air wind and sea surface temps - but like the kid in the commecial who's allowed to only ride her tricycle in an area no greater than the size of the tricycle itself, that's about the same for any tropical system that forms in the western Caribbean from October through May...

True, there are the rare exceptions that reach Florida, but over the past 100 years they amount to less than 5...

Frank

[boca]

A cold front is supposed to safe the day for any threat 99L will be to Florida.according to the NWS the moisture will be shunted back SE into the Caribbean and the later part of the week will be April like.looks like our dry season started about 2 weeks ago unfortunately.

[AdamFirst]

(This is my personal opinion and not an official forecast)

I agree with the notion of what wxman57 said yesterday...I think 99L/future Richard drifts a bit further north, then turn west and skirts the coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua and perhaps entering Belieze. I'm not going to speculate on strength...though I expect a rain event over a wind event.