ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[Vortex]

It sure looks like well have advisories initiated by 11pm tonight based on recon and current imagery....Also, NHC probablly won't show a whole lot of movement.

[LarryWx]

It sure looks like well have advisories initiated by 11pm tonight based on recon and current imagery....Also, NHC probablly won't show a whole lot of movement.

Vortex,
Despite what the models have been showing, I think that you need to be very vigilant with Richard "to be". The models have been playing catchup and 99-L is sooo much further north than was projected by these same models. It has now managed to move far enough north to now be in a climatologically dangerous position for S FL in mid to late OCT. Nearly half of all TC's that formed near the current position of 99-L in mid to late Oct hit the south half of FL as a full-fledged hurricane! That is about as high of a threat a location can possibly have this far in advance from a climo point of view. So, whether you want it or not, you may very well be seeing some major action!

[chaser1]

Certainly appears that 99L is getting its act together; low and mid level convergence appears to continue to increase. Perhaps a slight bit of SW shear towards its western quadrant. Right now, it would seem hard to argue against the BAMD for motion. Quicker deepening will have Richard "touring" the N. Atlantic with time. On the other hand, ridging building in from the west Gulf ( and/or a skinny ridge re-asserting itself over Cuba, Hispaniola, etc. ), would certainly seem to indicate that any storm south of C. Cuba a few days out....and with any vertical depth might have to be pushed back to the west.

October systems can really have "squirlly motion". Where I could easier see motion taking a storm towards the N.E. or S.W., I just can't seem to rationalize how this system would have adequate time to deepen, then hang around long enough to eventually be a threat to Florida in 132 hours or so. On the other hand, this much larger system than Paula might really wreck havoc for E. Cuba and Haiti with the threat of torrential flooding.

[Ntxw]

Vortex,
Despite what the models have been showing, I think that you need to be very vigilant with Richard "to be". The models have been playing catchup and 99-L is sooo much further north than was projected by these same models. It has now managed to move far enough north to now be in a climatologically dangerous position for S FL in mid to late OCT. Nearly half of all TC's that formed near the current position of 99-L hit the south half of FL as a full-fledged hurricane! That is about as high of a threat a location can possibly have this far in advance from a climo point of view. So, whether you want it or not, you may very well be seeing some major action!

Climo danger, yes. Close proximity for comfort, yes. But climo isn't what the pattern is right now, it's what has happened in the past. We shouldn't be looking at the models for definitive answers anyway, just guidance. Pattern setup right now says S. Florida is currently safe from any major system impacts, most atm would be rain drawn up from the tropical moisture (which in some cases is needed for the northeast coast due to very dry conditions recently.). S. Floridians are generally prepared for systems and keeping an eye won't hurt. Currently however nothing really points to this thing driving into S Florida. A lot will depend on the SE ridge and it looks to be strong enough to deter the system from hitting.

It needs to sit in the Caribbean to strengthen, but that will take too much time as the ridge takes hold. If it moves too fast, it won't have enough time to fully strengthen and run into shear north of the Antilles imo for now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[latitude_20]

Is it likely that they would upgrade before the next recon flight goes in tomorrow morning?

[cycloneye]

The next mission departs at 4:30 AM EDT. It says Cyclone instead of invest.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 20/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
C. 20/0830Z
D. 18.0N 83.0W
E. 20/1130Z TO 20/2130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[wxman57]

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/4503/goes2245201029273berh.jpg

Latest

The LLC appears to be on the very left edge of this image, west of the area of convection. Little movement now, steering currents have dried up. High pressure will be building to its north now, so it won't be able to travel much more to the north.

[calmbeforestorm1]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm actually a bit concerned with this system and I'll tell you why. The GFDL is now showing a Cat 4 hurricane in the yucatan channel at 5 days and if you look at the upper level flow at that point a powerful hurricane would still be steered in the general direction of Florida. The GFDL and now the Bams are the only models to get this system as far north as Jamaica while forming it but the BAMS never get it strong while the GFDL does. Current loops show the system is almost as far north as Jamaica right now. A stronger system that far north would not be driven into C.A. or the lower yucatan as suggested by the models that show a much weaker system being driven west by the strong westerly flow, especialy at lower latitudes. IF you look at the 18z GFS at the 500mb and 300 mb levels, this pattern is clearly evident.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
andhttp://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc ... =Animation
The bottom line is that I feel is that if this system gets strong quickly, inside 96 hours, I feel it is going to make it north of Cuba.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm actually a bit concerned with this system and I'll tell you why. The GFDL is now showing a Cat 4 hurricane in the yucatan channel at 5 days and if you look at the upper level flow at that point a powerful hurricane would still be steered in the general direction of Florida. The GFDL and now the Bams are the only models to get this system as far north as Jamaica while forming it but the BAMS never get it strong while the GFDL does. Current loops show the system is almost as far north as Jamaica right now. A stronger system that far north would not be driven into C.A. or the lower yucatan as suggested by the models that show a much weaker system being driven west by the strong westerly flow, especialy at lower latitudes. IF you look at the 18z GFS at the 500mb and 300 mb levels, this pattern is clearly evident.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
andhttp://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc ... =Animation
The bottom line is that I feel is that if this system gets strong quickly, inside 96 hours, I feel it is going to make it north of Cuba.

I added the storm2k disclaimer to the post.

[Battlebrick]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

for the GFDL, it brings it to 138 kts at 120 hrs. Isn't that a cat 5, or am I missing something?

[Ntxw]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm actually a bit concerned with this system and I'll tell you why. The GFDL is now showing a Cat 4 hurricane in the yucatan channel at 5 days and if you look at the upper level flow at that point a powerful hurricane would still be steered in the general direction of Florida. The GFDL and now the Bams are the only models to get this system as far north as Jamaica while forming it but the BAMS never get it strong while the GFDL does. Current loops show the system is almost as far north as Jamaica right now. A stronger system that far north would not be driven into C.A. or the lower yucatan as suggested by the models that show a much weaker system being driven west by the strong westerly flow, especialy at lower latitudes. IF you look at the 18z GFS at the 500mb and 300 mb levels, this pattern is clearly evident.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
andhttp://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc ... =Animation
The bottom line is that I feel is that if this system gets strong quickly, inside 96 hours, I feel it is going to make it north of Cuba.

Every global model (the high has already formed) has a strong high pressure to it's north acting as wall shortly through the 5 days and beyond. It would be strong easterly flow moving it w/wsw. But with calm conditions to it's north due to the high, I can see how the scenario of a strong tropical cyclone can play out. People in the Peripheral of the Caribbean should keep a close watch.

[calmbeforestorm1]

Every global model (the high has already formed) has a strong high pressure to it's north acting as wall shortly through the 5 days and beyond. It would be strong easterly flow moving it w/wsw.

I meant easterly flow but the strong high is at the lower levels, not so much the mid and upper levels, enough to stop any further northern progress but not enough to drive a stronger storm very far south and west

[Aquawind]

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/4503/goes2245201029273berh.jpg

Latest

The LLC appears to be on the very left edge of this image, west of the area of convection. Little movement now, steering currents have dried up. High pressure will be building to its north now, so it won't be able to travel much more to the north.

HUh..LLC you say.. and yet no TD even..Seems they have changed the criteria for a TD starting with Paula. While I don't think Florida needs to be concerned they are doing no favors for the other inhabitants in the area..weird.

[brunota2003]

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/4503/goes2245201029273berh.jpg

Latest

The LLC appears to be on the very left edge of this image, west of the area of convection. Little movement now, steering currents have dried up. High pressure will be building to its north now, so it won't be able to travel much more to the north.

HUh..LLC you say.. and yet no TD even..Seems they have changed the criteria for a TD starting with Paula. While I don't think Florida needs to be concerned they are doing no favors for the other inhabitants in the area..weird.

No...one of the criteria is a well-defined LLC.

[Ivanhater]

Well if this system hangs around the NW Caribbean for a while and heads into the Yucatan into the southern Gulf like some models are showing, The Gulf looks to get favorable for something all the way to the Northern Gulf according to the GFS. This system looks more promising than the others.

[MGC]

Will that slug of dry air to the west of 99L hold it back a bit? It might.....I think the GDFL is a bit too aggressive bring 99L to Cat-4 in just 126 hours.....MGC

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah in the longer range, the westerlies look to curve up further north instead of over the gulf (SE ridge-La Nina pattern kicking in). This will open the gulf up. However that's several days away so who knows what will happen by then.

[HURAKAN]

No...one of the criteria is a well-defined LLC.

Did Otto and Nicole had a "well-defined LLC"?

Nicole's was never found by RECON or at least there was never a VDM and Otto was very broad.

They like to play around with the definition of a tropical cyclone.