ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Will that slug of dry air to the west of 99L hold it back a bit? It might.....I think the GDFL is a bit too aggressive bring 99L to Cat-4 in just 126 hours.....MGC

I agree about GFDL being too agressive. HWRF intensity looks more plausible.

[Macrocane]

Did Otto and Nicole had a "well-defined LLC"?

Nicole's was never found by RECON or at least there was never a VDM and Otto was very broad.

They like to play around with the definition of a tropical cyclone.

I guess you're talking about Otto's first stages, because later it was a very well organizad hurricane. Other examples of no well defined centers are TD-2 and TD-5.

[HURAKAN]

I guess you're talking about Otto's first stages, because later it was a very well organizad hurricane. Other examples of no well defined centers are TD-2 and TD-5.

Yeah, early stages. Later there was no discussion about how defined was the LLC!! lol

[Florida1118]

Did Otto and Nicole had a "well-defined LLC"?

Nicole's was never found by RECON or at least there was never a VDM and Otto was very broad.

They like to play around with the definition of a tropical cyclone.

I guess you're talking about Otto's first stages, because later it was a very well organizad hurricane. Other examples of no well defined centers are TD-2 and TD-5.

And yet if the NHC DIDNT upgrade Nicole or Bonnie etc., we most likely would be nagging about how they should have upgraded them. The NHC gives the human element to Hurricanes. Im sure if we all walked in to the office and had their jobs for a season, we wouldnt be complaining about how certain things weren't done a certain times. And yes Ive done it too, Im not calling anyone out.

[Chacor]

Interesting fact:

If this develops into a TC, it will be the first INVEST 99L of the season to become a cyclone.

90L: Hermine
91L: Colin and Igor
92L: Karl
93L: Alex and Julia
94L: TD5 and Lisa
95L: Danielle and Matthew
96L: TD2, Earl and Nicole
97L: Bonnie, Fiona and Otto
98L: Gaston and Paula

[cycloneye]

They will wait for recon that will go early in the morning to then pull the trigger (If they have to) depending on what they find.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Looking great tonight. If convection increases over the center as helped by D-MAX, I can easily see TS Richard tomorrow

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm actually a bit concerned with this system and I'll tell you why. The GFDL is now showing a Cat 4 hurricane in the yucatan channel at 5 days and if you look at the upper level flow at that point a powerful hurricane would still be steered in the general direction of Florida. The GFDL and now the Bams are the only models to get this system as far north as Jamaica while forming it but the BAMS never get it strong while the GFDL does. Current loops show the system is almost as far north as Jamaica right now. A stronger system that far north would not be driven into C.A. or the lower yucatan as suggested by the models that show a much weaker system being driven west by the strong westerly flow, especialy at lower latitudes. IF you look at the 18z GFS at the 500mb and 300 mb levels, this pattern is clearly evident.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
andhttp://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc ... =Animation
The bottom line is that I feel is that if this system gets strong quickly, inside 96 hours, I feel it is going to make it north of Cuba.

Every global model (the high has already formed) has a strong high pressure to it's north acting as wall shortly through the 5 days and beyond. It would be strong easterly flow moving it w/wsw. But with calm conditions to it's north due to the high, I can see how the scenario of a strong tropical cyclone can play out. People in the Peripheral of the Caribbean should keep a close watch.

Any system this time of year that is festering in the NW Carib where 99L needs to be watched in Florida. Just think, this past weekend, models showed it slamming into Central America through Southern Nicaragua. Now look where it has ended up.

The GFDL is certainly an eye-opener as it brings a CAT 4 to just west of the Western tip of Cuba. Looks like it would be in position to get steered N or NE ahead of a trough in classic late October fashion.

Thankfully, GFDL is an outlier at the moment.

[boca]

Strong high pressure is expected to build eastward which would force the system towards the west and keep it away from Florida and the GOM.Climatology isn't gospel all the time but as a guideline but not in this case.

[gatorcane]

Strong high pressure is expected to build eastward which would force the system towards the west and keep it away from Florida and the GOM.Climatology isn't gospel all the time but as a guideline but not in this case.

Boca, I can see it moving west but the strength of the system and the speed at which it moves will be key. By day 6, GFS already breaks down the 500MB ridge, and it gets nudged to just east of the Bahamas which would setup a scenario where it could move north then northeast following this 500MB flow.

[SouthDadeFish]

I found it interesting that in the 8pm outlook, the NHC changed their wording for the conditions to marginally favorable. Looks like dry air is pushing in from the NW. That won't do it any favors. However, it looks like we finally have deeper convection forming closer to the center. Will be interesting to see if the dry air kills off this convection.

[boca]

Strong high pressure is expected to build eastward which would force the system towards the west and keep it away from Florida and the GOM.Climatology isn't gospel all the time but as a guideline but not in this case.

Boca, I can see it moving west but the strength of the system and the speed at which it moves will be key. By day 6, GFS already breaks down the 500MB ridge, and it gets nudged to just east of the Bahamas which would setup a scenario where it could move north then northeast following this 500MB flow.

Will this sytem still be around in 6 days is the key just like you said with its forward speed.It would basically have to meander around for the next week.

[MGC]

Looks like the shear is kicking up too....hopefully the shear and dry air hold back development.....MGC

[Macrocane]

Looks like the shear is kicking up too....hopefully the shear and dry air hold back development.....MGC

Actually the latet shear analysis from CIMSS shows the disturbance under 10 kt of wind shear wich is not unfavorable and the dry air is north of the system and is not affecting it yet.

[CourierPR]

Looks like the shear is kicking up too....hopefully the shear and dry air hold back development.....MGC

Actually the latet shear analysis from CIMSS shows the disturbance under 10 kt of wind shear wich is not unfavorable and the dry air is north of the system and is not affecting it yet.

This afternoon AccuWeather indicated that shear is not an inhibiting factor to development.

[HURAKAN]

Latest - looks good

[Aquawind]

Impressive Alright!

[Florida1118]

TWO coming out very soon...

[Florida1118]

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 165 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Sanibel]

Cyclones in this area that head west underneath a ridge can sometimes get strong.


I don't know if conditions will support this though.