CSU biweekly forecast Oct 13-Oct 26, 2010: Average

[clfenwi]

For their last bi-weekly forecast of the season, the CSU team is calling for average activity (between 4.7 and 8.6 units of ACE). The existence of Hurricane Paula is the driving factor as the MJO is in an unfavorable phase and most global models are not predicting any additional tropical cyclogenesis during the next few days.

The previous forecast was a bust. Despite Nicole, Otto, and Paula forming, ACE for the period did not break into the above average level that had been predicted. That drops the forecast success rate to 40% (2 out of 5).

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/october_13_2010.pdf

[clfenwi]

Pauline dissipated just a little too quickly to bring ACE for this period to 'average'. Currently at 4.595 and the lowel threshold for average is 4.7 units. Forecast now rides on the future of 99L. Intensification as shown by GFDL and HWRF would bring ACE into the 'above average' category. It would take a weak, somewhat short-lived tropical storm to bring ACE into the 'average' level and keep it there.

[clfenwi]

99l became Richard, of course. Richard becoming a hurricane brought ACE for the period to 9.33 units, which is in the 'above average' level for the period. That made this forecast a bust, lowering their success rate to 33% (2/6, a drop from last year's 50% (3/6).