WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[oaba09]

I hope everyone is prepared for Megi's 2nd landfall....I'll be praying for you guys...

[windysocks]

A bit cloudy here and the wind has picked up slightly. Strange to think that monstrosity is just offshore!

[StormingB81]

Looking at some of the models it may be closer to tawain which would be great for china. they don;t need any more rain with all the flooding troubles they are having

[euro6208]

Very large typhoon megi- a category 4 and forecast to strengthen more.

[alan1961]

Outer bands showing up on Hong Kong Observatory radar.

[Chacor]

JTWC up to 115 knots but have shifted landfall yet further east at 0900 UTC.

[windysocks]

Signal No. 1 raised here in Hong Kong.

[Typhoon10]

HKO have it recurving to N, then swinging back NNW with it touching down approx 100km east of HK

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, HKO already picking up on the rainbands! That is crazy!!!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well also, my latest video on Megi, I know most of us are exhausted from this storm ( I sure am,) I hope 95W does not blow up.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6pv47wGRxA[/youtube]

[KWT]

I'd be a little surprised if recon found this one to have 115kts, I suspect its very much like Ike at the moment probably with multiple wind Maxima and a large radius of winds...its got a very large inner core which is classic indication of the land interaction that earlier occured.

I suspect it'll weaken somewhat once it starts to get close to land, remember waht nearly always happens to large Gulf hurricanes as theyget close, this is very similar indeed. Landfall between 90-100kts is about right IMO.

ps, with the core being flabby, highest winds will probably be a solid 30-60 miles east and west away from the center of the storm.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hk observatory is great! Don't engage in water sports at the end of the video on this url.
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/briefing/report_e.mp3?20101020104519

[windysocks]

There seems to be a general feeling that Megi will not affect HK too much. The HKO has reduced their tropical cylone information page and is saying that Signal No. 3 is unlikely to be raised tonight.

The winds have definitely picked up here though.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I don't think HK will get the core winds, but the wind field for TS force winds extend out 170nm from the core so the winds will pick still in HK, as you have already said, still a dangerous storm.

[Chacor]

JMA no longer calling to Megi to reintensify to 100 kt, and have dropped the forecast at 72 hours:

WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 18.4N 117.2E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 20.2N 117.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 221200UTC 21.6N 117.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 231200UTC 23.2N 117.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.5N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.6N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.6N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.7N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.2N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.1N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 117.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Getting sheared off to the N there, very good news. Thanks for posting those sat pics and warnings as well Supercane..

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, pretty gusty near HK already, showing a 69kt gust N of the city.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Raw footage of Megi in NE Luzon I shot, in HD - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9tckfJrTnI

Exhausted and going to pass out now in my bed, 1 days rest before moving off for round 2!