2010 WPAC Season

[somethingfunny]

The 1998 analog continues. Megi looks like Zeb #2, after such a quiet season.

[StormingB81]

WOW!! Another 2 Invest pop up...Scary thing is 97W is SW of guam if it goes south of Megi rack how scary identicle would that be to 1998? When they has 2 back to back hit PI in a week.

[crownweather]

Ok, I feel kind of dumb asking this question, but I'll ask anyways: why are storms in the West Pac given two names. ie. Megi/Juan.

[Chacor]

Megi is the internationally-recognised name.

PAGASA chooses to issue their own names for public advisories for the Philippines for storms in their area. They are the only known agency to do this.

[euro6208]

i pray that next month won't see another super storm making landfall in the philippines or anywhere else in the WPAC

[Chacor]

Since 1951, there are 145 storms in the JMA best-track forming in November.

Most intense on that list are Typhoon June (1975) at 875 hPa; Typhoon Marge (1983) at 895 hPa; Typhoon Gay (1992), 900 hPa.

[Macrocane]

From accuweather.com

A Tropical Rarity: Atlantic Outdoing Western Pacific

While dangerous Super Typhoon Megi is dominating tropical headlines, there has actually been fewer named tropical systems in the western Pacific than the Atlantic this year. That is quite a rare feat.

Megi is the 14th system to reach tropical storm status or higher in the western Pacific Ocean. Compare that to the 16 named storms in the Atlantic Basin.

An average of 11 systems become tropical storms or stronger in the Atlantic Basin each year. The Japan Meteorological Agency puts that number at nearly 27 in the western Pacific.

Furthermore, the western Pacific averages nearly 11 tropical storms and typhoons (the equivalent of a hurricane in the Atlantic) in just the two months of August and September.

The least active season in the western Pacific, since 1951, occurred in 1998 when only 16 tropical storms and typhoons developed. The year 1969 ranks as the second inactive season with a total of 19 named storms.

On the other end of the spectrum, 1967 holds the record as the most active year with 39 tropical storms and typhoons.

The tropical season in the western Pacific actually lasts the entire year, while hurricane season is limited to the months from June to November in the Atlantic.

The brunt of the season in the western Pacific does occur from July to November with a peak in late August and early September.

This year in the western Pacific is not only noteworthy due to the low number of tropical storms and typhoons, but also since the formation of the basin's first super typhoon occurred unusually late in the season.

Megi strengthened into the year's first super typhoon late Saturday. That occurrence has taken place earlier every year except on three occasions since 1950.

It took until Oct. 22 for the season's first super typhoon to develop in 1978 and until Oct. 25 in 1984. No typhoon achieved super status in 1974.

Maximum sustained winds in a super typhoon have to be at least 150 mph, similar to that of a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.

Igor is the only hurricane in the Atlantic to be the equivalent of a super typhoon this year. Igor even beat Megi to achieve that status by over a month.

It should not surprise many people that the Atlantic has been quite active this season. In June, AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi predicted the development of 18 to 21 named storms.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/38984/tropical_w_pacific_running_unu.asp

[Chacor]

On October 24:
*1969 (total 19 storms) — 15 named storms
*1998 (total 16 storms) — 11 named storms
*2010 (total ?? storms) — 13 named storms

[euro6208]

From accuweather.com


On the other end of the spectrum, 1967 holds the record as the most active year with 39 tropical storms and typhoons.


http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/38984/tropical_w_pacific_running_unu.asp

[euro6208]

ecmwf forecasting a tropical storm making landfall in malaysia, north of singapore. very low latitute!

[Chacor]

Just seen that too. Looks like it's analysing landfall around the Thailand-Malaysia border. Need to see if other models agree... Euro showing 15 m/s winds here next Tues.