WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[phwxenthusiast]

TCFA issued by JTWC...

WTPN21 PGTW 200930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 148.1E TO 16.7N 140.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS SUSTAINED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. OBSERVATIONS FROM
SAIPAN INDICATE A 4 MB DROP IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. ALSO, A 200346Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED
BANDING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT
IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH IS SUPPRESSING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC MODELS
INDICATE A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES WITH THE
SYSTEM'S REORIENTATION TO THE TUTT CELLS IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY
210930Z.//
NNNN



http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp9510.gif

[Chacor]

Saipan reporting pressures in the region of 1004-1005 hPa.

NWS Guam has issued a special weather statement:

WWMY80 PGUM 200814
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
614 PM CHST WED OCT 20 2010

GUZ001>004-210600-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
614 PM CHST WED OCT 20 2010

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE ISLANDS OF CNMI THIS EVENING...JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS
OF PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. AT 5 PM THE CENTER WAS ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE TO BE NEAR 16.5N AND 146.5E...OR ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 230 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. MOVEMENT
WAS TOWARDS THE WEST AT 20 MPH.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CNMI. WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 20 TO 40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THE OTHER NORTHERN ISLANDS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER
RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

SIMPSON/EDSON

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 15.9N 146.3E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 16.0N 141.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

That looks to me like a TD


Also, I know the first part of this is about MEGI, but the second part is my thoughts on 95W guys, like always I make sure to put a shout out to Storm2k. Witch is great because some of these videos are getting a few K hits!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6pv47wGRxA[/youtube]

[KWT]

ECM develops this one this morning 00z run and takes it towards Taiwan, I suspect much depends on how quickly it develops, the quicker it develops the greater the chance the trough that picks up Megi will also lift this one out a few days later.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed KWT, hopefully that trough will pick this one up as well.

[euro6208]

the next name if this becomes a tropical storm will be CHABA. last time it was used, chaba was a powerful supertyphoon with 155 knots sustained that affected guam and the cnmi with heavy rain and strong winds. luckily it didnt hit any land. will this chaba be as strong? we will see

[Chacor]

Waiting for 12z warning to be issued.

[Chacor]

12Z fix from JMA:
NAMELESS 18160 11458 14194 215// 92510=
16.0N, 145.8E, T1.5, moving 250/10kt.

[Chacor]

And that 12z warning:
WTPQ21 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 16.0N 145.8E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 16.0N 140.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[JTE50]

the next name if this becomes a tropical storm will be CHABA. last time it was used, chaba was a powerful supertyphoon with 155 knots sustained that affected guam and the cnmi with heavy rain and strong winds. luckily it didnt hit any land. will this chaba be as strong? we will see

when I was in Saipan a year ago and interviewed some of the locals "Chaba" was the one they all remembered.

[Infdidoll]

Chaba? Sounds like something a reggae singer would yell out in the middle of a song.

Saw ECMW's model run...I'm really starting to trust ECMW's runs after seeing them make quite a few correct predictions this year. I've been very, very impressed. Just wonder how Megi will affect this one in the coming days...along with all the other conditions out there. Feels like the West Pac is one big, unstable turmoil at the moment.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Chaba? Sounds like something a reggae singer would yell out in the middle of a song.

Saw ECMW's model run...I'm really starting to trust ECMW's runs after seeing them make quite a few correct predictions this year. I've been very, very impressed. Just wonder how Megi will affect this one in the coming days...along with all the other conditions out there. Feels like the West Pac is one big, unstable turmoil at the moment.

Not to mention this strong Low that will blowing up in the N pac. Its that time of the year.

[dhoeze]

Hope this wont hit Philippines or any other countries for that matter. A lot of people still with no homes which was destroyed by Typhoon Megi.. God be with us...
Good night gurus...

[dexterlabio]

In Western Pacific, typhoons must always come in pairs.

[P.K.]

The thread title needs updating.

WTPQ21 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 16.4N 144.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 16.0N 139.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Battlebrick]

Here we go..

[StormingB81]

After Megi, I don't know how well we can take into account of NOGAPS However, They are hinting at a recurve....we shall see...

However ECMWF Is also calling for a recurve....

[StormingB81]

My Guess is JTWC will start issuing at 1100 advisory.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[StormingB81]

and from NWS GUAM:

THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS OF CNMI THIS MORNING...JUST
WEST OF THE ISLAND ANATAHAN. AT 4 AM THIS MORNING THE CENTER WAS
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE TO BE NEAR 16.8N AND 144.5E...OR ABOUT 140
MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 230 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. MOVEMENT
WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 MPH.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN.

WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WINDS OVER THE MARIANAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH IN SHOWERS TODAY.

THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF FORMATION AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER
RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH TONIGHT.