ATL: RICHARD - Models

[Vortex]

I also think with the pattern areas as far west as ms/al may need to keep an eye on this one...Will the US finally sucumb to a hit??????

[caneman]

It would be highly unusual for a system this late to make it into the No. GOM. so I highly doubt it. I'd have to see many more model runs to buy into that. Looking more likely that it could threaten Florida. Hopefully some shear will be in place by then and cooler waters so it doesn't get too strong.

[Ntxw]

It would be highly unusual for a system this late to make it into the No. GOM. so I highly doubt it. I'd have to see many more model runs to buy into that. Looking more likely that it could threaten Florida. Hopefully some shear will be in place by then and cooler waters so it doesn't get too strong.

I have personal doubts on a N Gulf hit too. I don't think Floridians should worry yet, the thing is still taking it's sweet time to get it's act together. Your talking a long ways out before any potential threat to the US if at all. Models are having a hard time with this thing even 12-24 hours out nonetheless a week...however, it's doing the right thing by moving south and slowing down if it wants to strengthen.

[Ivanhater]

It would be highly unusual for a system this late to make it into the No. GOM. so I highly doubt it. I'd have to see many more model runs to buy into that. Looking more likely that it could threaten Florida. Hopefully some shear will be in place by then and cooler waters so it doesn't get too strong.

The GFS, EURO, and Canadian are all showing a pattern favoring this heading north in the GOM with a ridge placed over the Florida Peninsula. So in that regard, that track is favorable right now. Ida in November last year for example or Kate in November.

However, what the intensity will be is highly dependent on land interaction and shear at that time in the Gulf. Models could also change and break down the ridge faster and have the system getting hung up over the Yucatan. All speculation right now.

[Weatherfreak000]

12z Euro brings 99L into SE Louisiana after the Yucatan took a toll on it.

unbelieveable.

[Stormcenter]

Come on now this northern GOM landfall is as likely as the Buffalo Bills winning the
Super Bowl this season. The models (as always) are yanking your chains here. IMO

[Macrocane]

Last year nobody beleived that Ida could get into the Gulf of Mexico, it was november and it was an El Niño year but it happened, IMO it may happen again, still too early to tell though.

[jinftl]

Until there is some consistency between individual model runs and among the different models, each run is pretty much science fiction....look what happened with paula (compared to what some model runs were saying days in advance in regards to florida being 'in trouble').

[x-y-no]

Some sort of shredded remnant could conceivably get to the northern Gulf coast. I don't believe a tropical system could though.

[caneman]

Starting to wonder if C.A. is where it is going to head.

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam has a strong small system that never hits land, unlike previous runs that has it slamming into Central America

[Vortex]

important to note the trend there...

[SouthDadeFish]

If the GFS follows the NAM, then I really believe this is headed for the Yucatan or parts north of that.

[SouthDadeFish]

NAM also shows shear sharply retreating out of the NW Carib by 72-84 hours.

[sunnyday]

Another hurricane "hit" on SFL shown by the HWRF. I've seen that more than once this season.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFDL shear forecast:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=gfdlxsec&storm_identifier=AL992010&starting_image=2010AL99_GFDLXSEC_201010201200

HWRF shear forecast:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=gfdlxsec&storm_identifier=AL992010&starting_image=2010AL99_GFDLXSEC_201010201200

No wonder they strengthen Richard so much. Also note the HWRF does show 30 knots of shear at the very end of the run.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS still advertises the Peninsula of Florida protected with a ridge firmly in place over Florida through day 8. Anything during that time frame would be steered around the high. However, the high breaks down by day 9, so if something hangs around for more than a week, the peninsula may be in danger, but it seems unlikely something will be around by day 9.

[Vortex]

If there is a threat to FL I think it will likekly be in the the 6-8 day range....

[gatorcane]

Some sort of shredded remnant could conceivably get to the northern Gulf coast. I don't believe a tropical system could though.

Different story for South Florida though. A strong hurricane could still impact that area as SSTs are still warm and upper-level winds are more favorable.

My eye is on this system as ridging looks like it breaks down next week, which could open a door for it to head north. The time of year is right also.

[Dean4Storms]

Going to have to keep an eye for the trend over the next couple of days. Looks like a slim chance it makes it to the Gulf, however I would imagine the cooling SST's and shear/dry air all take a toll on it if it does.