ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[Vortex]

Latest hi-res imagery indicates the LLC is moving east and is getting close to tucking back underneath the convection to the east..GFDL track-wise looks to have done an excellent job in the short-term

[ronjon]

Center is looking broader and elongated E-W ... getting a bit closer to strong convection, though. This may qualify for TD by 11pm.

yeah I think with D-Max tonight that the eastern portion of the elongated center will tighten up along with increased convection. Circulation while broad, is quite vigorous.

[Ntxw]

For anyone with doubts regarding “it’s too late to get anything strong”…We only have to look back the last 5-15 years and 2 very powerful storms come to mind. Mitch and Wilma formed within days of the current date….The structure of 99 is well defined and once shear decreases over the next 24 hours this system will have all the necessary ingredients to become what the GFDL/HWRF have been advertising… a POWERFUL hurricane….How this storm interacts or doesn’t with the Yucatan and/or western Cuba will have significant impacts on areas to the north to include the eastern Gulf/FL….While a US threat is purely speculation at this point we have seen some increase in this *possible* solution the last 24 hours…

I hear a lot of comparison with Mitch/Wilma for every storm basically that the models bomb 3+ days out in October. These are two signature storms are the exception not the norm. It can happen, but odds are not likely to that magnitude. Nonetheless I do agree the potential is there but we still have a lot of time to watch it. I think the euro has done a pretty decent job short term, if it gets on boat then I would give it more chances.

[SouthDadeFish]

Great loop of what has been going on near the center:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Looks like recon may find a TD by the time they head out there again. Center is very close to the convection.

[Blown Away]

Latest hi-res imagery indicates the LLC is moving east and is getting close to tucking back underneath the convection to the east..GFDL track-wise looks to have done an excellent job in the short-term

Let's hope the GFDL is wrong long term! IMO, 99L keeps drifting generally eastward and the longer it takes to begin that SW movement the less likely it will landfall in CA which keeps 99L farther north and more susceptible to being pulled northward by troughs.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a Special Tropical Weather Outlook in the next hour?

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not so sure that it's drifting eastward, but instead that the center is just reforming. Looks pretty stationary to me.

[fci]

For anyone with doubts regarding “it’s too late to get anything strong”…We only have to look back the last 5-15 years and 2 very powerful storms come to mind. Mitch and Wilma formed within days of the current date….The structure of 99 is well defined and once shear decreases over the next 24 hours this system will have all the necessary ingredients to become what the GFDL/HWRF have been advertising… a POWERFUL hurricane….How this storm interacts or doesn’t with the Yucatan and/or western Cuba will have significant impacts on areas to the north to include the eastern Gulf/FL….While a US threat is purely speculation at this point we have seen some increase in this *possible* solution the last 24 hours…

I hear a lot of comparison with Mitch/Wilma for every storm basically that the models bomb 3+ days out in October. These are two signature storms are the exception not the norm. It can happen, but odds are not likely to that magnitude. Nonetheless I do agree the potential is there but we still have a lot of time to watch it. I think the euro has done a pretty decent job short term, if it gets on boat then I would give it more chances.

Thank you!
I think there is the tendency too for people to want to "remind" people of historic devastating storms anytime there is a storm or even Invest in the vicinity. Comparisons to Mitch/Wilma consistently for any October disturbance in the Carib. If there is an Atlantic disturbance that will be north of The Islands, Andrew comes up. If a system weakens from a TS or TD and even becomes a remnant low in the Atlantic, inevitably the Katrina comparison comes up. "You never know" and "Don't forget that TD10 weakened and then regenerated to Katrina".........
All of the above are, as NTXW says, are exceptions to the norm.
However, I know that this is a "discussion" forum and comparisons are certainly allowable and discussions are encouraged.

[Blown Away]

I'm not so sure that it's drifting eastward, but instead that the center is just reforming. Looks pretty stationary to me.

I agree, but the new position will be farther east.

[brunota2003]

Take a look at the upper levels on that loop...I noticed that the cirrus clouds are now starting to push toward the W/NW, a sign that the shear is letting up?

[SouthDadeFish]

Buoy 42057 is now reporting WNW winds, a sign the center has reformed to the East. Looks like we have an organizing tropical depression to me.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts

[wxman57]

The rather small vortex that was the center does appear to be weakening and moving under the western edge of the convection. Another weak vortex can be seen to the north moving westward around the broad low center. I do think that a center will reform under the convection in the next 24 hours, giving rise to Richard. If it takes the GFS track, then no hurricane. If it tacks toward the central Yucatan, staying north of Honduras, then it could easily be a Cat 3-4.

[cycloneye]

Starting to organize.

[SouthDadeFish]

Why hasn't recon taken off yet?

[cycloneye]

Why hasn't recon taken off yet?

I think we wont see another mission until tommorow morning as is still a invest.If it were already a TD,then the mission that would be going on right now would be on.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 21/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0319A CYCLONE
C. 20/2030Z
D. 18.0N 82.5W
E. 20/2330Z TO 21/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[Ivanhater]

The rather small vortex that was the center does appear to be weakening and moving under the western edge of the convection. Another weak vortex can be seen to the north moving westward around the broad low center. I do think that a center will reform under the convection in the next 24 hours, giving rise to Richard. If it takes the GFS track, then no hurricane. If it tacks toward the central Yucatan, staying north of Honduras, then it could easily be a Cat 3-4.

I agree. I believe we have a developing depression as we speak.

Pressure falling nicely at this buoy with a wind shift from the WNW.



Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.1 °F

[SouthDadeFish]

Hurricane Wilma also had to fight off wind shear and dry air as it formed and drifted southwest. I found this article very eerie.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_history_of_Hurricane_Wilma#Formation

[AJC3]

Take a look at the upper levels on that loop...I noticed that the cirrus clouds are now starting to push toward the W/NW, a sign that the shear is letting up?

IMO it is, but not all that much...yet. However there's a pretty sharp gradient between the area of moderate to high shear (20-25kt+) and much lower shear (<=10-15kt), and this is pretty much bisecting the broad circulation of 99L. The shear has always been analyzed as being lower farther to the south and east, given the position of the upper level anticyclone. Since the storm has gradually been drifting south/east over the last 12 hours, as it continues to do so conditions form here on out should improve quite a bit. Also, I don't see deep layer dry air as being that much of an inhibiting factor down the road.

Another thing of interest is the BAM suite (a/k/a "the poor man's shear forecast")/ The last BAMD track that I looked at came into much, much better agreement with BAMS/BAMM. Previous BAMD guidance showed 99L racing off toward the NE while BAMS/BAMM took the system west or WSW, implying some really hideous southwesterly upper level shear. It'll be interesting to see if whatever becomes of 99L is able to avoid beating itself up between days 3 and 6, because if it's still alive and near/east of the northern Yucatan in about 168 hours (7 days, give or take), then the stong DLM ridge that will be building over FL early next week (behind the next short wave trough) starts to weaken, and that *could* portend whatever is down there to be drawn up NE toward FL ahead of the next cold front. One final item - preliminary indications from the ECM/GFS are that the cold front will be a doozy...easily the strongest of the season for the SE and FL.

In any event, this is all long range speculation with the usual caveats about uncertainty. There's plenty of time to watch development trends, model trends, etc. etc.

[SouthDadeFish]

Let me add above, I'm not saying this will become another Wilma at all. Just found the comparison interesting. I understand Wilma formed from a monsoonal low and this did not.

[Nimbus]

The westerlies will probably ease between fronts so we won't get lucky like we did with Paula. That will give Richard some time in a low shear environment to intensify. Cuba and south Florida are at greatest risk if Richard doesn't get dried out over CA. Its 144 hours till the ridge is forecast to build in over Florida but we may see a resolution to the forecast before then.