BOB: GIRI (04B) - Depression

[supercane]

Link to 98B NRL page
98BINVEST.15kts-1010mb-186N-917E.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

ECM develops this into a small storm, it does look pretty convecitvly active at the moment so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this getting upgraded into a storm at some point.

[supercane]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 20-10-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS AND LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -
BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD ISOL WK TO MOD CONVTN OVER BAY BET LAT 8.0N TO 10.5N WEST OF LONG 85.0E ANDAMAN SEA (.)

ARABIAN SEA: -
BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER ARSEA N OF LAT 18.0N EAST OF LONG 70.5E GULF OF CAMBAY (.) SCT LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH EMBDD ISOL WK TO MOD CONVTN OVER REST E ARSEA (.)

THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 21.0°N OVER THE REGION.

[P.K.]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-10-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 20 OCTOBER, 2010 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 20 OCTOBER, 2010 (.)


THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20TH OCTOBER 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 17.50N AND 91.50E, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITTWE, MYANMAR (48062), 450 KM SOUTH OF COX BAZAR, BANGLADESH(41992) AND 650 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA, WEST BENGAL, INDIA (42901).

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION. IT WOULD MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWARDS AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH MYANMAR AND SOUTH BANGLADESH COASTS DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHEAR PATTERN. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 15.0º N AND 20.0ºN AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 89.0º E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -700C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS). 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (280-320 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS THAN 100 KJ/CM2. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 190N AT 200 HPA LEVEL. THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL INDIA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL AND IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

[StormingB81]

It is looking good right now. I think we should see something today on it..

This from JTWC:

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 91.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 201253Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE CORRESPONDING WIND PRODUCT INDICATES 25 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BANDING. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

wow

[Macrocane]

IMD is very slow to upgrade systems but I'm surprised that the JTWC has not issued any warning yet, this already looks like TS strength to say the very least.

[supercane]

BOB 04/2010/03 Dated: 21.10.2010
Time of issue: 0830 hours IST

Sub: Depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal

The depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 21st October 2010 over the same areas near latitude 17.50N and 91.50E, about 350 km south-southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar), 450 km south of Cox Bazar (Bangladesh) and 650 km southeast of Digha (West Bengal, India).

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression. It would move initially northwards and then north-northeastwards towards north Myanmar and south Bangladesh coasts during next 48 hours.

Since the system is likely to move towards north Myanmar and south Bangladesh coasts, it is not expected to affect east coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts will be informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of 21st October 2010.

Source: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm

[StormingB81]

WTIO31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 91.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.1N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.0N 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8N 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.8N 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 91.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 210119Z
AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED
TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND ARE NOW AT 35 KNOTS FROM
BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TC 04B IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST AND IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER MYANMAR NEAR
TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS TIGHTLY GROUPED.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.

[Macrocane]

35 kt is conservative if we look at that microwave, but at least they noticed it, the Euro has been showing a rather strong cyclone making lanfall in the eastern BOB for several days.

[StormingB81]

Looks like it will only be a weak stor mwhich is good..hopefully the rains dont do much flooding..

[Chacor]

Eye on mwave already? Wow.

[supercane]

[supercane]

TXIO27 KNES 210305
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98B)
B. 21/0230Z
C. 17.6N
D. 91.4E
E. THREE/MET-7
F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI
H. REMARKS...6/10 WHITE BANDING FOR A DT OF 3.5. MET IS 2.5 AND PT IS
3.0. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
21/0039Z 17.5N 91.3E TMI
...EARLE
=

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 91.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 91.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.0N 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.8N 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.8N 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.9N 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 91.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE SPIKED FROM PGTW AND KNES
IN RESPONSE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
CYCLONE. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210405Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS AT LEAST 40 KNOTS
AT THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED ON A 210039Z TMI AND A
210403Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. MODERATE WESTERLIES ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FACILITATE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TILL LANDFALL WITH BURMA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24.
THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TWO WEAK TO MODERATE
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN WALKED SOUTH, CLOSER TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[HURAKAN]

latest

[KWT]

IR is really unimpressive but then again the microwave shows a pretty solid looking eyewall feature present, so I'd imagine 50-55kts probably is about where it is right now, ECM done a good job suggesting this region could form...