ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[Blown Away]

October tracks of storms within 100 miles of 99L.

[Battlebrick]

Special update or will they wait until 11?

[MGC]

TD???....still looks too weak with the convection displaced.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Special update or will they wait until 11?

11

[StormingB81]

Special update or will they wait until 11?

I Would think Special Update..They took it off NRL site to put it as a TD...I don't think they will wait to 11

[Brent]

Special update or will they wait until 11?

Wait til 11

[Blown Away]

Predictions, does the NHC track kill 99L over the Yucatan or is the track farther east along the coast?

[CourierPR]

Predictions, does the NHC track kill 99L over the Yucatan or is the track farther east along the coast?

I think it depends on how much it deepens. Personally, I have a hunch that the approaching trough next week will be stronger than many predict.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Of all the invest numbers from 90L to 99L,is the first time this season that 99L is renumbered.

[Ivanhater]

Predictions, does the NHC track kill 99L over the Yucatan or is the track farther east along the coast?

With the model consensus in pretty good agreement going into the Yucatan, I see no reason to not go with that track.

[StormingB81]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I Think it will go to west of Cuba staying offshore then going into the gulf oh mexico then going into florida hopefully as a minimal storm..

[gatorcane]

Predictions, does the NHC track kill 99L over the Yucatan or is the track farther east along the coast?

With the model consensus in pretty good agreement going into the Yucatan, I see no reason to not go with that track.

I am not convinced at all that it gets buried in the yucatan. I don't see a good consensus that you are seeing. The models will likely shift around.

It could end up in the GOM. Too early to say for sure it will or will not head into the gom or Florida.

[dixiebreeze]

/2345 UTC 17.0N 81.4W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic

[Ntxw]

I am not convinced at all that it gets buried in the yucatan. I don't see a good consensus that you are seeing. The models will likely shift around.

It could end up in the GOM. Too early to say for sure it will or will not head into the gom or Florida.

Most of the models that predicted wild swings into S. Florida in the near future have shifted south along with the rest. A lot will depend on how soon the ridge breaks down and when it does how strong is the trough taking it's place as well has how much impact with land effects the system if any. There's also a lot of consensus that the slug of moisture will eventually effect the gulf (whether it be S. Florida or anywhere else) in the longer term but the question is what will become of it then.

[Blown Away]

Predictions, does the NHC track kill 99L over the Yucatan or is the track farther east along the coast?

With the model consensus in pretty good agreement going into the Yucatan, I see no reason to not go with that track.

I am not convinced at all that it gets buried in the yucatan. I don't see a good consensus that you are seeing. The models will likely shift around.

I see a track looping just north of Honduras and landfall as a hurricane just south of Cozumel then weakening into a TS over the NE Yucatan. Climatology says a NE hook at some point towards SFL/Cuba.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm guessing the NHC cone will have a track W then WNW into Belize and dying in the Yucatan. How anti-climactic.

[wxman57]

Predictions, does the NHC track kill 99L over the Yucatan or is the track farther east along the coast?

Into the Yucatan vicinity northern Belize. Maybe something like the red arrows on the model plot below. But if it takes that track, it would emerge into the gulf a sheared TD and in an environment of shear ahead of a cold front. Consensus tracks are being drawn too far northward by the HWRF taking it into Tampa.

[plasticup]

http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/3240/hurricanerichard.jpg

October tracks of storms within 100 miles of 99L.

Hahaha that is probably the least predictive map I have ever seen. Every storm ends up somewhere different - it really shows what a crazy time of year this can be!

[Ivanhater]

Predictions, does the NHC track kill 99L over the Yucatan or is the track farther east along the coast?

With the model consensus in pretty good agreement going into the Yucatan, I see no reason to not go with that track.

I am not convinced at all that it gets buried in the yucatan. I don't see a good consensus that you are seeing. The models will likely shift around.

It could end up in the GOM. Too early to say for sure it will or will not head into the gom or Florida.

Really? I see excellent agreement for a track into the Yucatan compared to a couple days ago.

[StormingB81]

Doesnt that Orange track look similiar to a charley track...