ATL: RICHARD - Models

[ronjon]

18z HWRF - 942 mb and 95 knots into Sarasota FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010102018-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF - 942 mb and 95 knots into Sarasota FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010102018-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

IMO, to fast having 99L off the SW FL coast in just 5 days.

[Dean4Storms]

18z HWRF - 942 mb and 95 knots into Sarasota FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010102018-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Just don't see that happening.

[Vortex]

Overall the majority of the models and GFS ensembles are pointing towards Gulf coast and/or FL in 6-8 days....Climatology would suggest FL but as Ivan pointed out earlier if there is a ridge(GFS) over the FL peninsula with an advancing cold front across the midwest middle of next week it would make sense that that the area from LA-AL could actually be most at threat....


Model plots:


https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_99.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

The GFS tried to do the same shananigans with Paula. It never developed her even when she was a cat 2. This has already moved north of where the GFS thought, so I would favor a track slightly north of what the GFS is saying. The GFDL seemed to do a good job with Paula, really being the only one intensifying her, and I am agreeing with its thinking this time too.

[Ptarmigan]

I noticed some of the models have it towards the Texas coast. Don't know how valid it is. I know Texas has been hit by tropical cyclones as late as November.

[Ivanhater]

Nice consensus

This could get quite strong before hitting the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

Nice consensus

This could get quite strong before hitting the Yucatan.

Will be interesting to see if models shift more east. That is not really a climatologically favored track for this time of year.

I wouldn't say it is hitting the Yucatan just yet

[Vortex]

Nice consensus

This could get quite strong before hitting the Yucatan.

This storm may have those from Houston to Key west keeping close tabs on this developing storm the next few days...

[Vortex]

00Z Nam rolling and thru H60 much stronger than prior runs and further N at this point in the run....

H60 Hurricane between honduras and the caymans...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS 500MB Flow by Day 5. I can see why the HWRF is bending it towards Florida:

[Weatherfreak000]

Nice consensus

This could get quite strong before hitting the Yucatan.

]http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2010/nineteen/images/Storm-19-Spaghetti.gif[/img]

Scary consensus plots for the Northern GOM....

[Stormcenter]

What is so scary about a TD not even in the GOM?

Does anyone honestly think a model track this far that has changed so much just the last
few days will actually pan out? I'm sorry but I don't.
Anyway it's almost late October and yeah we had Ida last year but this is 2010 and she
really didn't amount to much anyway when she made her U.S. landfall as a sub-tropical storm.
Just my 2 cents and nothing more.

Nice consensus

This could get quite strong before hitting the Yucatan.

]http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2010/nineteen/images/Storm-19-Spaghetti.gif[/img]

Scary consensus plots for the Northern GOM....

[Vortex]

00Z NAM..strong hurricane with a heading wnw/nw end of run...If it just misses the Yucatan to the E or clips the northern Yucatan this would likely result in a powerful hurricane...


Loop:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Ridge is eroding also as a cold front pushes into the southern plains:

[Vortex]

Look at the differences regarding intensity and land interaction between the last 3 runs of the NAM. Also further N each run...


12Z NAM H 84..remant low dissipating over Nicaragua/Honduras

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif


18Z Nam H84 a bit further N and just brushing Honduras and near Hurricane strength...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif


00Z NAM at H84 further N and east of belize..stengthening Hurricane...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif



The trends continue further North and Stronger with much of the guidance...

[PTrackerLA]

The northern gulf coast would welcome a sheared TD or TS at this point as most of the northern gulf coast from from Houston to the panhandle of Florida is in moderate to severe drought with extreme drought in some cases further inland. Check out the current drought monitor: http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt ... nitor.html

Will be interesting to watch nonetheless, I'm just hoping we finally see some rain next week. It's been exceptionally dry this year.

[Weatherfreak000]

What is so scary about a TD not even in the GOM?

Does anyone honestly think a model track this far that has changed so much just the last
few days will actually pan out? I'm sorry but I don't.
Anyway it's almost late October and yeah we had Ida last year but this is 2010 and she
really didn't amount to much anyway when she made her U.S. landfall as a sub-tropical storm.
Just my 2 cents and nothing more.

Nice consensus

This could get quite strong before hitting the Yucatan.

]http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2010/nineteen/images/Storm-19-Spaghetti.gif[/img]

Scary consensus plots for the Northern GOM....

Yes I do think it is possible....the NHC literally discussed it OPENLY as well as the pro mets and members here. We aren't seeing things. Give it a rest man


THE MAJORITY OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW LOOPING MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...
SOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...

[caneman]

WeatherFreak000, even if it did make it to the North Gulf it would most likely be a sheared mess. PLease lets settle down the hype and see how it all plays out.

[Patrick99]

Interesting. Climatology says keep a lookout.....things change quickly this time of year.