ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Interesting:

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THEN TURNS IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH
THE LATTER SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

AND:

LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE FUTURE INTERACTION WITH LAND.

Looks like they are not sold on a Yucatan hit either just yet

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0232.shtml?

[wxman57]

Looks nearly identical to my track on the previous page. I guess they agreed with me. I don't agree with only 55kts for peak intensity, though. Could easily be a Cat 1-2 hurricane.

[Ntxw]

Looks nearly identical to my track on the previous page. I guess they agreed with me. I don't agree with only 55kts for peak intensity, though. Could easily be a Cat 1-2 hurricane.

Gotta say you did Wxman! Pretty good forecast you've done for this system so far. The ridge pattern is unusual for this time of year that's for sure, might even throw climo out the window. They are probably being conservative on the intensity but nothing looks to be stopping this from being a decent hurricane.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
Appears the NHC is completely discounting SFL in the short term...things of course are always far more complex in the long term and the initial NHC track is usually never right...perhaps it might make landfall further North and more in line with the consensus models....either way if it made it into the BOC the NGOM would have to be looking out. Opal anyone?

[Ptarmigan]

Looks nearly identical to my track on the previous page. I guess they agreed with me. I don't agree with only 55kts for peak intensity, though. Could easily be a Cat 1-2 hurricane.

I have to agree with you on that. The water in that area is warm.

[gatorcane]

Climatological tracks for October within 65NM of where this depression is located.

Look how many of them impacted Florida or just east of Florida in the Bahamas. It's really hard to believe that it heads west into the Yucatan, though three have in 150 years of recoreded history. Just about all of the others impacted Florida or the Bahamas.

[psyclone]

i would imagine it's too late for an opal type threat to the northern gulf coast, especially after the relatively chilly weather of the past 3 weeks or so. i would guess tchp over the gulf is meaningfully lower now than it was when opal struck.

[Ntxw]

Climatological tracks for October within 65NM of where this depression is located.

Look how many of them impacted Florida. It's really hard to believe that it heads west into the Yucatan, though three have in 150 years of recoreded history. Just about all of the others impacted Florida:

I don't think it has any other choice than towards the Yucatan. High pressure is steering it, it's evident the high is in control since it's now already forcing this depression south. Whether it impacts Florida or the northern gulf is what happens after it approaches the Yucatan/Belize vicinity in a few days...

[Weatherfreak000]

The atmosphere doesn't have a memory gatorcane

[wxman57]

Climatological tracks for October within 65NM of where this depression is located.

Look how many of them impacted Florida or just east of Florida in the Bahamas. It's really hard to believe that it heads west into the Yucatan, though three have in 150 years of recorded history. Just about all of the others impacted Florida or the Bahamas.

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3918 ... tracks.jpg

Climo says one thing, but current model guidance puts a big HIGH right over south Florida and the Bahamas in 5-6 days. Well, time for bed.

[gatorcane]

Climatological tracks for October within 65NM of where this depression is located.

Look how many of them impacted Florida or just east of Florida in the Bahamas. It's really hard to believe that it heads west into the Yucatan, though three have in 150 years of recorded history. Just about all of the others impacted Florida or the Bahamas.

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3918 ... tracks.jpg

Climo says one thing, but current model guidance puts a big HIGH right over south Florida and the Bahamas in 5-6 days. Well, time for bed.

Am I missing something? Here is the 18Z GFS at 5-6 days:

[wxman57]

Am I missing something? Here is the 18Z GFS at 5-6 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

That's about the time it would enter the southern Gulf by the northern Yucatan. Look another 24 hours and you'll see the ridge over the Bahamas Monday night shifting right over south Florida on Tuesday. Now with that flow pattern, it could go toward the NE Gulf (FL Panhandle) but it would encounter increasing shear as it moves north.

[boca]

The atmosphere doesn't have a memory gatorcane

Thats funny, but gatorcane has a point if you look at the 18Z GFS the high is over the Bahamas unless the high is moving west.I thought a big trough or cold front was supposed to sweep thru the area towards the middle to late next week.

[gatorcane]

I see that now, thanks Wxman. A ridge that strong in late October? I will see it to believe it! Of course, what a trough we had a month ago that pushed Nicole to the NE.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Am I missing something? Here is the 18Z GFS at 5-6 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

That's about the time it would enter the southern Gulf by the northern Yucatan. Look another 24 hours and you'll see the ridge over the Bahamas Monday night shifting right over south Florida on Tuesday.

Real question is why are we hanging hat on the GFS when last night it had it morphing into a Epac storm? GFS has been a Fail daily with this one...

[Ivanhater]

Euro also shows this ridge and brings the leftovers of Richard into New Orleans. Might get some rain from Richard here in Pensacola next week.

[hurricaneCW]

I see that now, thanks Wxman. A ridge that strong in late October? I will see it to believe it! Of course, what a trough we had a month ago that pushed Nicole to the NE.

The models are really amplifying that SE ridge due to a huge lakes cutter so don't doubt its strength. I'm not surprised, the La Nina is only getting stronger, we'll have to transition to a strong SE ridge sooner or later.

[Ntxw]

12z euro had the exact solution basically. High from the Bahamas building into S Florida in the same time frame with a low coming up from the northern Yucatan.





If that pans out, good moisture for the southeast which most sorely need.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection is really popping just SE of the center. Looks much better than just three hours ago.

[FireRat]

It's hard for a storm to stay in the NW Caribbean for 5 days....any unexpected speeding west of the storm could place it in the Yucatan or in the Y.C. about October 23-24. If the trough unexpectedly rushes in too, then we have trouble for Florida (The only way I see this thing being a Fla threat, and about a 10 percent chance maybe). Otherwise the storm shall make landfall in the Yucatan by the 24th-25th at the very latest IMO.