Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

abajan,the wet phase of MJO will arrive around the last days of this month and last into mid November.

[abajan]

abajan,the wet phase of MJO will arrive around the last days of this month and last into mid November.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO.forecast.olr.png

Interesting. Thanks for the info.

[Macrocane]

Good afternoon. October has been unusually dry this year, something weird considering that 2010 is already the wettest year on record in El Salvador, the country had not experienced rainfall since October 2nd but yesterday most of the country received some rains, here are some amounts:

Cerron Grande 58.3 mm/2.3 inches
San Francisco Gotera 20 mm/0.79 inches
San Salvador 7 mm/0.28 inches
San Miguel 6.5 mm/0.26 inches
Santa Ana 5 mm/0.2 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE OCT 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A CUT-OFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO 70 WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT IT ALL BUT DISAPPEARS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FRIDAY AFTER NEXT. ON THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
SHIFT TO CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT WEST AND FADE BEFORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
BECOME RE-FOCUSED IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE SOUTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE...LIKELY HAVING SPAWNED OUT OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW AT UPPER LEVELS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS
MOVING WEST AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES...AND ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GENERATED OFF OF
VIEQUES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LATE...JUST AS
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...AND SHOULD GENERATE OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
AND AROUND THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM COAMO WEST AFTER 3 PM AST.
DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE
IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND 20/00Z...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE LIKELY TO LAST LONGER TONIGHT...POSSIBLY PAST
8 PM AST. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE NORTH COAST
WEST OF ARECIBO. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST AS THE WAVE PASSES...BUT WINDS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE THIS TURNING RIGHT AWAY...AIDING IN SOME OF THE
CONVERGENT SHOWERS THAT THE NAM IS FORECASTING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY WITH ALTERNATING DRY AND SOMEWHAT WET
AIR PASSING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF
SHOWERS ON THE EAST COAST IN THE EARLY MORNINGS AND STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. NO MAJOR BREAKS IN THIS PATTERN ARE FORESEEN AT THIS
TIME FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJPS AND POSSIBLY TJBQ/TJMZ THROUGH 20/02Z.
ELSEWHERE...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER TISX AND TIST TIL 19/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY AND IN THE CARIBBEAN RISE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS THEN BUILD SLOWLY DUE TO
LOCAL WINDS IN BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN
THE INTERIM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 75 87 78 87 / 10 20 20 20

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall for
Tue Oct 19 2010 (abbreviated)

San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.3C 85F 52.1mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.3C 88F 44.0mm
Havana, Cuba 30.2C 86F
Nassau, Bahamas 29.9C 86F trace

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
944 PM AST TUE OCT 19 2010

.UPDATE...LATEST DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
QUICKLY DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE HOWEVER NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. LATEST TJSJ 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING...AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A CONTINUED
DRYING TREND ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WITH MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT AND LATEST UPPER AIR DATA NOW
DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO NEAR 1.38 INCHES. LATEST GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALED FAIRLY WELL...WITH CONTINUED DRYING TREND
FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER THE
WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WIND IN SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 AM AST WED OCT 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE APPROACHING
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING RACES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
THURSDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN IN LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY APPROACHING TNCM AND TKPK. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MOISTURE TO
BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS INCREASED LLVL
MOISTURE. WITH A ESE STEERING WIND FLOW ANTICIPATED...MAY EVEN SEE
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA LATER IN THE
DAY.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BEFORE WE SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GET STEERED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WIDESPREAD AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. LEFT INHERITED FORECAST MOSTLY IN TACT AS THESE PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS APPEAR TO BE
MAIN SOURCE OF WEATHER FOR NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE TJMZ VICINITY FROM 20/17Z THROUGH
20/21Z...IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 76 / 20 30 30 30
STT 87 77 87 77 / 20 20 20 20

[msbee]

Good morning from Grenada
The weather here is gorgeous. not a cloud in the sky and not much wind where I am..so that means HOT!

We had a beautiful sunset last night.

[Gustywind]

Good morning from Grenada
The weather here is gorgeous. not a cloud in the sky and not much wind where I am..so that means HOT!

We had a beautiful sunset last night.

Nice pic Barbara, i really enjoy it that's wonderfull!!!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST WED OCT 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LATEST SATELITE
IMAGES DEPICTED A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS...APPROACHING TO THE U.S. VIRGIN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS BAND OF MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH MOST MOISTURE CONFINED TO
PASSING BANDS. GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC PWAT PRODUCT
SHOWED A RELATIVE DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
IN ADDITION... THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST DECREASING TREND OF PWAT
VALUES JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
COMBINE EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TIST...TISX UNTIL AT LEAST 20/02. FOR
TOMORROW...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE TJMZ VICINITY FROM 21/17Z THROUGH
21/21Z...IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALSO
INCREASING THE LOCAL WATERS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 75 88 / 40 40 30 30
STT 78 87 77 88 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,18z GFDL is the first model that I see that has a very strong hurricane (80kts) making landfall in Belize.Lets wait and see if this is only one model or there is a trend from the other ones in that direction.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[BZSTORM]

BZSTORM,18z GFDL is the first model that I see that has a very strong hurricane (80kts) making landfall in Belize.Lets wait and see if this is only one model or there is a trend from the other ones in that direction.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

thxs Luis for the heads up, I was just seeing that really hope that 80kts is not a reality, BZ MET DEPT lives and dies mostly by the GFS so don't know when they will start really worring, couldn't come at worse time, friday and saturday we have big public meeting in South fighting the issue of our tourism board suddenly deciding that we should turn our quaint village into a cruise destination PORT, and basically throw out 30yrs of investment in overnight eco toursim.......it will kill all local small hotel business and heavily impact overnight tourism. So we already have a kind of storm and this would just be dreadful on top of it, trying to watch the storm and its convoluted paths & deal with this cruise ship issue (1200 passengers 2 times a week - the local population is barely 1200) is starting to fry my brain.

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM,18z GFDL is the first model that I see that has a very strong hurricane (80kts) making landfall in Belize.Lets wait and see if this is only one model or there is a trend from the other ones in that direction.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

thxs Luis for the heads up, I was just seeing that really hope that 80kts is not a reality, BZ MET DEPT lives and dies mostly by the GFS so don't know when they will start really worring, couldn't come at worse time, friday and saturday we have big public meeting in South fighting the issue of our tourism board suddenly deciding that we should turn our quaint village into a cruise destination PORT, and basically throw out 30yrs of investment in overnight eco toursim.......it will kill all local small hotel business and heavily impact overnight tourism. So we already have a kind of storm and this would just be dreadful on top of it, trying to watch the storm and its convoluted paths & deal with this cruise ship issue (1200 passengers 2 times a week - the local population is barely 1200) is starting to fry my brain.

Here is the first advisory track.It passes just north of your location,but is the first advisory and things can change so stay tuned to the latest.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST THU OCT 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DECREASING PW VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AS THE PASSING BAND OF MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH VERY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH ONLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE DAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PASSING PATCHES OF
MOISTURE...BREAKING OFF FROM DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION...TO PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND NOT AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE TJBQ AND TJMZ VICINITY FROM
21/17Z THROUGH 21/21Z...IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 89 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 88 76 89 78 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU OCT 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST
OF THE MONTH. A CUT-OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
LEAVING VERY WEAK GRADIENTS. MOIST INTRUSIONS AT MID LEVELS ARE FEW.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE
HIGH PRESSURES MERGE AND EVENTUALLY DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC.
THIS MAINTAINS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN A
MODERATE TO FRESH GENERALLY EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH WHICH CARRIES MINGLED PATCHES OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND DRIER AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE OFF
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW SCANT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AS OF 3 PM AST
NORTHWEST OF AGUADILLA. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT TODAY
AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY. ANOTHER WEAKER PULSE OF
MOISTURE COMES IN TOMORROW AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LITTLE
CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT ONLY VERY MODEST
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA...
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW PASSING SHRA
WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE USVI AND EASTERN PR.
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHRA ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR...INCLUDING TJMZ FM 22/18-22Z...IN MAINLY
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE ATLANTIC. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEAS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE ATLANTIC DUE TO WIND WAVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS BORDERLINE AND MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
TOO STRONG WITH THE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 88 / 30 30 30 20
STT 76 88 78 89 / 20 20 40 20

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM, here are the latest tracks of all the models that show many tracks in different directions.That is why you have to watch the progress of Richard in the next couple of days.

[BZSTORM]

BZSTORM, here are the latest tracks of all the models that show many tracks in different directions.That is why you have to watch the progress of Richard in the next couple of days.

Thansk for posting the new models. Don't worry Luis, I'm watching intently, not at all surprised by the latest NHC track 11pm ET dropping more South from the 8PM and back to sunday night landfall. Iris taught me to not trust any storm at this time of year in our neck of the woods. Just hate that I might have another hurricane around my wedding anniversary, hell of a way to remember how many years u been married.

[BZSTORM]

this is this evenings weather discussion from Belize met, probably issued around 8pm ET.

NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION DATE: THURSDAY 21ST OCTOBER 2010 (EVENING)

SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER S'RN DISTRICTS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH AND OVER THE SEA. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 00Z SHOWS TS RICHARD NEAR 16N/80W ALMOST STATIONARY, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE W'RN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1017MB HIGH NEAR 30N/90W. A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WEST OF 85W. AT HIGH LEVELS, A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 16N/81W AND A TROF IS OVER THE E'RN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT AND DRY OVER BELIZE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH, WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF BELIZE.

THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT OUT OF THE GULF BY LATE TOMORROW OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THAT TIME. THE RELATIVELY DRY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER BELIZE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS, NAM, NGP & UKMET ALL KEEP CONDITIONS OVER BELIZE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, THEN ALL BRING SOME RAINFALL INTO THE COAST FROM THE EAST. THEY ALL STRENGTHEN THE STORM AND MOVE IT OVER OR JUST NORTH OF NE HONDURAS AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS MOVE THE STORM / HURRICANE SOUTH OR NORTH OF BELIZE. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE DIVERGENT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH, MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

FORECAST: CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE SEA AND OVER SOUTHERN DISTRICTS.

EXTENDED: CONTINUING GENERALLY FAIR FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

MARINE: NORTH 5-15KTS. CHOPPY. 2-4FT.

FORECASTER: RUDON

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM, if all stays as it is right now with the models in a majority way,tracking more south,then Belize for sure will have TS watches and warnings or hurricane watches and warnings being issued there,depending on the future track and intensity in the next two days so be on alert.