WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[dowdavek]

So far this morning on Guam, we have had slightly gusty winds and a little rain. The highest I've clocked on my station was 20mph just a few minutes ago, I'm in north-central Guam so the winds may be a little higher down by the water.

[StormingB81]

I am suprised that it isnt a depression yet....maybe they are waiting for the 1100 advisory to upgrade it and join JMA

[Infdidoll]

Looks like ECMW is now predicting a poleward curve when it reaches Okinawa and going up to mainland Japan.

[StormingB81]

I saw that Infindoll...That would be good with all the rai nwe are getting right now if we were to get a typhoon or even a tropical storm it may flood like crazy here...i mean i bet we had atleast 1-2 inches of rain so far just today!

[Infdidoll]

I saw that Infindoll...That would be good with all the rai nwe are getting right now if we were to get a typhoon or even a tropical storm it may flood like crazy here...i mean i bet we had atleast 1-2 inches of rain so far just today!

This morning was INSANE! I had to go out in that to take my son to school. My shoes, clothing, everything was waterlogged. I had to change. Those were some serious torrential downpours.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 16.7N 143.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 15.8N 139.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

95W looks really good lately...I hink it is very close for JTWC to upgrade. By the time they do it maybe a quick TS!

[Chacor]

Whatever conection there is is sheared southeast of LLC. Not surprised JT haven't upgraded yet.

[StormingB81]

Pressure is down to 1004 though...I think it is ineveitable....Small little system too...

[StormingB81]

Looks like ECMW is now predicting a poleward curve when it reaches Okinawa and going up to mainland Japan.

It is close with a swing either way it could get bad or it could be sunny...gonna have to watch this one though

[dexterlabio]

I'm giving this invest a chance but I don't think it will be as strong as Megi given the current conditions in some areas in the Western Pacific. If shear relaxes more, continuous intensification will be expected.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I agree dexter, if this storm develops it will remain weak, to much shear in the region, the ripe conditions MEGI had are not there. Also the Sub-tropical ridge is much weaker now with the stnry boundary to the N, that will likely make it recurve much sooner,

I think the good news is that it shouldn't effect the PI.

[StormingB81]

True but some bring it really close to Okinawa We MAY have to watch it over here...

[euro6208]

ecmwf has this storm east of okinawa as a possible category 4 typhoon

[supercane]

TXPN26 KNES 210346
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B. 21/0257Z
C. 17.3N
D. 141.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREE SHEAR FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
ARE 1.5. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...EARLE
=

[StormingB81]

anyone else been having problems with NOGAPS?

[StormingB81]

NOGAPS is back up..has this storming turning around maybe one that Iwo To has to watch out for..

[StormingB81]

JTWC re-issued the TCFA:

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS SUSTAINEDCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. OBSERVATIONS FROM
SAIPAN INDICATE A 4 MB DROP IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. ALSO, A 200346Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED
BANDING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT
IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH IS SUPPRESSING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC MODELS
INDICATE A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES WITH THE
SYSTEM'S REORIENTATION TO THE TUTT CELLS IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 200930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

[StormingB81]

ECMWF Brings this alot close to Okinawa then NOGAPS. One we all may have to watch....

[Chacor]

JMA at T1.5 still.