ATL: RICHARD - Models

[LarryWx]

0z gfs has Richard the strongest and furthest north of the last four gfs runs at 60 hours moving WNW at 1003 mb toward Belize. Very interesting.

Edit: 72 hours 1001 mb moving WNW toward Yucatan/Belize.

Prior three runs were MUCH weaker (1008 mb) and much further south running into Honduras.

Folks, I think that the end-game for Richard is wide open! Those wanting some U.S. action shouldn't give up!

[LarryWx]

0z gfs 168: Richard 300 miles s of TX/LA border moving north.

[Ntxw]

0z gfs doesn't have it much more than a slug of moisture though. A lot of shear 30kts+ that far north. Definitely beneficial rain from this run for the gulf coast region.

[LarryWx]

0z gfs hits SE LA at 186!

[Florida1118]

0z gfs hits SE LA at 186!

As....a sheared blob of crap. Whats so exciting? Erg this is gonna drive us mad.

[LarryWx]

0z gfs hits SE LA at 186!

As....a sheared blob of crap. Whats so exciting? Erg this is gonna drive us mad.

The trend is your friend. The point is to consider the trends. Don't take the exact solution literally. Just a couple of days ago, the models had this going into the EPAC! The point is that the jury is out as to what Richard will do and that includes a U.S. landfall potential, quite possibly FL, since the models have been sooooo far off. Why take them literally now?

[Ivanhater]

Richard brings some much welcomed rain to the North central gulf coast on the 00z gfs, very similar to the Euro.

[Ntxw]

The trend is your friend. The point is to consider the trends. Don't take the exact solution literally. Just a couple of days ago, the models had this going into the EPAC! The point is that the jury is out as to what Richard will do and that includes a U.S. landfall potential, quite possibly FL, since the models have been sooooo far off. Why take them literally now?

I think when a storm is in the Caribbean this time of year, models can be wrong quite often. There isn't much of a 'progressive' pattern down there. However north of it, things become entrenched into the westerly pattern more so. You're right you can't rely on the models for a specific outcome to a storm, but the trend to the pattern isn't as foggy. There's a trough coming in, a mighty one at that which every global model is in agreement on. Richard won't stand much of a chance that far north.

[LarryWx]

The trend is your friend. The point is to consider the trends. Don't take the exact solution literally. Just a couple of days ago, the models had this going into the EPAC! The point is that the jury is out as to what Richard will do and that includes a U.S. landfall potential, quite possibly FL, since the models have been sooooo far off. Why take them literally now?

I think when a storm is in the Caribbean this time of year, models can be wrong quite often. There isn't much of a 'progressive' pattern down there. However north of it, things become entrenched into the westerly pattern more so. You're right you can't rely on the models for a specific outcome to a storm, but the trend to the pattern isn't as foggy. There's a trough coming in, a mighty one at that which every global model is in agreement on. Richard won't stand much of a chance that far north.

1) Agreed. However, we'll see if the models are right about the depth of the trough. Granted, climo does say no to the NW GOM getting a hit.

2) Regardless, S FL is very much in the picture for a potential threat.

[WeatherEmperor]

I see that both the 00Z GFDL and HWRF have a hurricane making landfall near Fort Myers

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

<RICKY>

[LarryWx]

0z Euro is slightly further N vs. 12z Euro as of hour 60 on a similar heading to the 0Z gfs that would likely miss Honduras to the north.

Edit: ATTN Floridians: 102 hour 0Z Euro is ~150 miles NW of the 12Z Euro's 114 hour position. It may not hit FL on this run, but the trend is what is most important.

[Huckster]

I have not posted anything on here in ages. I have been busy for the last several days, but I knew that there was talk about "something" forming in the west Caribbean. Anyhow, TD 19 is now a classified system. As I write these comments, it is October 21st, well past the climatological peak of hurricane season, especially for the northern Gulf Coast. As far as the models are concerned, I am not concerned. I am not going to even try to pretend to have any skill at in forecasting track or intensity of tropical cyclones. Apparently, there have been some rather large spreads amongst the models, especially past 120 hrs.

I have been actively tracking tropical cyclones for most of my short life, for 18 years (I am 28 now). These things are notoriously difficult to forecast, especially early and late in the season. So, I am not going to stress about this storm. However, I will keep an eye on it, especially since there is not a 100% model consensus on its eventual track.

Experience and climatology strongly argued against the near landfall of a hurricane near the Mouth of the Mississippi in the Nov. 9-10 time frame, yet Ida of 2009 nearly did just that. Hurricanes affected the Texas coast and possibly points farther east on 11/0?/1527 and also on 11/05/1839. Obviously there is a lot of information lacking. There weren't a lot of casinos or anemometers in the 17th Century along the Gulf.

One day at a time. That's how you have to take these things, especially in the late season.

In Nomine Jesu, Soli Deo Gloria

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro 114 going through the Channel!! Ruh roh!

126 through the channel. I expect a FL hit on this run. Wow!!

Actually, Richard headed for the FL panhandle/N Peninsula, not S FL, as per 150 hour map.

Landfall 180 hours (10/28) at Pensacola!

Edit: I wouldn't take this run literally, of course. However, I think that this just tells us that anything is very much on the table, especially a S FL landfall as per climo since 1851.

[Extratropical94]

06Z models now all predicting at least a moderate cat.1 intensity at 72-84 hrs... I'm kinda worried because of my Costa maya holiday plans.

[cycloneye]

At 168 hours,look where the 00z ECMWF has Richard.

[GCANE]

If this doesn't landfall in the Yucatan but turns north, it could mean favorable conditions for intensification.

Shear is forecast to be low and CAPE high.

144 hrs in the SE GOM looks pretty good.

Hope it doesn't go there.

[KWT]

End game is still very open, I've felt for a while the GFS idea of this hitting Honduras was an unlikely solution and I still think thats the case, Belize is possible, Yucatan IMO is the highest risk with Florida probably at about the same risk as Belize in the long run.

The 0z GFS is probably a nice sheared out rain maker but you just don't know, its getting late for a N.Gulf landfall but Florida is still very much in the picture according to the models...

[GCANE]

Euro takes it thru the Yucatan channel into the SE GOM as an intensifying TC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[KWT]

If you take the ECM at face value you have a moderate TS heading towards the panhandle, of course its quite possible the ECM is a good deal too weak with this system in the Caribbean so we will see.

[GCANE]

Big change in the dynamic tropopause 100 hrs out.

Wil have a big effect on intensity and steering.

A high tropopause allows for intensification.


http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html