ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Battlebrick]

40 kts SFMR?

[KWT]

Very much a one sided depression looking at that microwave at the moment, still its got quite a while over some pretty impressive heat content still (despite the upwelling from other storms) and most other parameters other then perhaps the dry air to the west look good so strengthening looks probable.

[ronjon]

TD 19 looking more and more like this potential track.

[KWT]

40 kts SFMR?

Looks rain contaminated to me therefore it won't count, plus flight level winds don't look all that impressive either really.

[clfenwi]

40 kts SFMR?

115930 1527N 07935W 9635 00402 0090 +209 +198 210026 028 040 018 03
120000 1526N 07934W 9623 00413 0091 +211 +195 214027 027 032 015 00
120030 1525N 07933W 9630 00408 0089 +228 +188 214027 027 028 005 00
120100 1524N 07932W 9629 00409 0090 +225 +184 212027 027 029 004 00
120130 1523N 07931W 9629 00408 0091 +212 +182 206026 028 031 011 03
120200 1522N 07930W 9635 00400 0092 +200 +180 211024 026 050 021 03

40 knots were recorded, but the '3's in the last colum indicate the SFMR readings are questionable..

[cycloneye]

32kts at SFMR uncontaminated.

[KWT]

Wow that'd certainly set this forum alight if that happened ronjon, the GFDL does kinda look like that sort of track on its 06z run actually...hmmmm...

[wxman57]

NHC track looks too slow, too weak, and too far to the west. It could just hit the northern Yucatan as a major hurricane next Monday and remain a hurricane in the southern Gulf (vs. a TD). But with high pressure building over south Florida, it may have nowhere to go but N-NNE toward the FL Panhandle. I don't see it going to south FL, though.

Really? Both hurricane models suggest sw Florida. Climo argues strongly for a south Florida hit. I'm not sure either but it's possible peninsula Florida could be an eventual target looking at the models.

By SW Florida, I think of Ft. Myers/Naples (Wilma territory). Can't rule out a hit closer to Tampa, for sure, but I don't see it turning ENE-E from near the northern Yucatan to hit SW florida.

[caneman]

Me thinks they need to go ahead upgrade to T.S. because if there is any chance of HWRF or GFDL verifying, they need to play it safe becasue we are within a 5 day timeframe for a potential hit on W.Fl.

[KWT]

32kts at SFMR uncontaminated.

Justifies 30kts at the moment but nothing more, esp based on the flight level winds still not exactly being impressive.

[caneman]

NHC track looks too slow, too weak, and too far to the west. It could just hit the northern Yucatan as a major hurricane next Monday and remain a hurricane in the southern Gulf (vs. a TD). But with high pressure building over south Florida, it may have nowhere to go but N-NNE toward the FL Panhandle. I don't see it going to south FL, though.

Really? Both hurricane models suggest sw Florida. Climo argues strongly for a south Florida hit. I'm not sure either but it's possible peninsula Florida could be an eventual target looking at the models.

By SW Florida, I think of Ft. Myers/Naples (Wilma territory). Can't rule out a hit closer to Tampa, for sure, but I don't see it turning ENE-E from near the northern Yucatan to hit SW florida.

A bit concerning indeed, considering this is the time of year when we are at most risk. GFDL shouldn't be allowed to forecase intensity any longer. I mean 160 mph - come on!!

[xironman]

The NW quadrant would be where the strongest winds will be, especially with this one.

[HURAKAN]

The NW quadrant would be where the strongest winds will be, especially with this one.

Stronger winds should be where the convection is, or the eastern quadrant

[Hurricane]

I have a question... I know the fronts move storms around a lot, but why does Wxman say this storm won't hut Texas when Texa is in the middle of the path? How can he be so certain?

[KWT]

A bit concerning indeed, considering this is the time of year when we are at most risk. GFDL shouldn't be allowed to forecase intensity any longer. I mean 160 mph - come on!!

Remember though thats not surface winds its showing, I suspect you could easily take 20-30mph off the surface winds based from what I've seen from that, still the GFDL showing a very powerfyul hurricane coming in, stronger then Wilma and the Tampa 21 hurricane as well...

[cycloneye]

Interesting data at SFMR of 44kts uncontaminated.

[Vortex]

Climo as well as the GFDL/HWRF strongly argue a SW/W coast of FL hit.....If that ridge is slightly displaced to the east over FL next week or weaker all bets are off...I'd say between Pensacola and Naples looks good at this point..The futher south it makes impact the stronger....

[xironman]

The NW quadrant would be where the strongest winds will be, especially with this one.

Stronger winds should be where the convection is, or the eastern quadrant

Your right, I should have said NE.

[Battlebrick]

122200 1603N 07915W 9628 00415 0105 +180 +155 139028 029 050 024 00
50 kts uncontaminated?