ATL: RICHARD - Models

[gatorcane]

I see more models show a Florida hit now. I could have stressed enough last night how skeptical I was of this just barreling into the yucatan. Climo suggests this not likely

[Vortex]

6Z HWRF continues to with bring future "Richard" as a hurricane into SW FL...




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

6Z GFDL makes future Richard a very powerful storm....continues with a FL hit...



http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _nest3.png

[KWT]

I personally think thoswe hurricane models are a little too far east actually but the idea IMO is more likely then some of the other solutions being banded about by the models at the moment.

Long ole way to go yet though people!

[caneman]

Living here on Clearwater Beach, I most certainly hope that doesn't verify. 160 + mph I highly doubt it. What is time frame on that, I see 126 hours but is that on end run? What is the time frame it has it actually hitting Tampa Bay?

[ronjon]

Living here on Clearwater Beach, I most certainly hope that doesn't verify. 160 + mph I highly doubt it. What is time frame on that, I see 126 hours but is that on end run? What is the time frame it has it actually hitting Tampa Bay?

Monday night or very early Tuesday morning.

[caneman]

A little scary becasue our last big one came towards the end of Hurricane season but lots can change. This time of year, we are at most risk.

[Vortex]

6Z GFDL loop....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

GFDL looks alot like Wilma for Cancun with it being about 120-125kts at the surface, would be a very powerful landfall for sure if that happened!

[Dean4Storms]

Lets hope these solutions back off or Flarduh is in for some rough weather!

[Blown Away]

Compared to last night the models are slowly hooking towards Florida. IMO, if our TD doesn't die over the Yucatan it will move towards the Florida. I wouldn't rule out an ultimate track going south of Florida.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models with TS Richard header

WHXX01 KWBC 211242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC THU OCT 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD (AL192010) 20101021 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101021 1200 101022 0000 101022 1200 101023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 80.7W 16.0N 81.0W 15.4N 81.6W 14.9N 82.5W
BAMD 16.5N 80.7W 16.5N 80.8W 16.8N 81.2W 17.1N 81.8W
BAMM 16.5N 80.7W 16.2N 80.8W 16.0N 81.3W 15.9N 82.0W
LBAR 16.5N 80.7W 16.5N 80.7W 17.5N 81.1W 18.9N 81.6W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101023 1200 101024 1200 101025 1200 101026 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 83.6W 14.1N 86.5W 15.2N 88.7W 17.2N 89.6W
BAMD 17.1N 82.9W 17.4N 86.7W 18.3N 90.2W 18.8N 91.3W
BAMM 15.5N 83.1W 15.4N 86.7W 15.9N 89.4W 16.2N 90.4W
LBAR 20.4N 82.0W 24.0N 82.9W 27.8N 81.6W 32.5N 73.2W
SHIP 63KTS 75KTS 78KTS 65KTS
DSHP 63KTS 75KTS 52KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 80.7W DIRCUR = 155DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 81.2W DIRM12 = 115DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 82.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Interesting to see the consensus run is actually a little south of where it was on the last run, they still strongly suggest a Central America landfall then a curve up towards the Gulf...I'd imagine it'd be alot weaker if it took that track, maybe just a TS....of course the GFDL/HWRF track would lead to something much more impressive!

[ronjon]

Interesting to see the consensus run is actually a little south of where it was on the last run, they still strongly suggest a Central America landfall then a curve up towards the Gulf...I'd imagine it'd be alot weaker if it took that track, maybe just a TS....of course the GFDL/HWRF track would lead to something much more impressive!

We'll need to look for clues from the 12z GFS as this is the last reliable global model with a far western track. If it shifts east more in line with the 00Z Euro, then confidence will greatly increase for an eastern GOM solution.

[Blown Away]

Interesting to see the consensus run is actually a little south of where it was on the last run, they still strongly suggest a Central America landfall then a curve up towards the Gulf...I'd imagine it'd be alot weaker if it took that track, maybe just a TS....of course the GFDL/HWRF track would lead to something much more impressive!

The 12z TVCN skirts along the NE Yucatan into the GOM and then gets crazy. NHC likes to hug the TVCN and they hinted in their disco they may shift north, so we have the TVCN, GFDL, and HWRF moving generally towards the NE Yucatan/channel. With the advertised cold front next week I don't think anything but a sheared TD or remnant low makes it to the NGOM and I think the chances Florida's west coast gets a strong system are increasing each day!

[Nimbus]

The models either have Richard recurving toward Florida south of Cedar Key or spending so much time over the Yucatan that a ridge has time to build in.

Historically the Tampa bay area has been hit in October by cat 3 storms that move up into the eastern gulf quickly along the current GFS track. If a system has a low shear environment in the Caribbean like the great Cuban hurricane SST's will support a cat 5 storm south of Cuba. Hopefully the upper air forecast will become clearer fairly soon, 5 days out the GFS should start to be taken seriously.

[KWT]

Yeah, if the Consensus model is right upto 72hrs out then the only direction this storm would be heading in would be Florida. I suspect we'll see a shift northwards and a big slow down due to the uncertainty.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Wowsers at the GFDL run. That would be an example of saving some of the worst for last.

Still, if the models keep shifting towards the straight of Yucatan or rather Northern Yucatan, I reckon the press will be all over this in no time.

[sponger]

Agreed! The press circus will go nuts. I think I will get some fuel for the ole generator just in case.

[AdamFirst]

Totally reminds me of the early stages of wilma at this point. I will reserve judgement though, when it's a little farther down the line.