ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah the Best Track at 12z was also at 35kts so an upgrade is just about certain now.

[Ivanhater]

57,there will be a strong Cold Front coming by mid next week right?

The strong front isn't likely to move off the Texas coast until next Thursday. Richard could enter the south-central Gulf Monday during the day on Monday. High pressure to the east could steer it toward a certain S2K member who hates Ivan in the Fl Panhandle. Good news is the models forecast about 50kt SW winds aloft across the central Gulf, so it could do an "Ida" as it tracks toward the coast. But I think it could be a strong but sheared TS at landfall.

Well that is a bit concerning wxman. I would hate to have to change my name to Richardhater. It just doesn't have a nice ring to it

I see the Euro and GFS have the same idea. A nice sheared storm is welcome here. We need the rain and a storm would be able to mix the sand on the beach and get rid of some of the buried oil hopefully.

[PTrackerLA]

[SFLcane]

TPC 11am...

THE STORM HAS BEEN ERRATICALLY MOVING DURING MOST OF ITS LIFE...AND
A LONG-TERM MOTION IS ABOUT 135/5. CURRENTLY RICHARD IS UNDERGOING
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AS IT IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A DISTANT RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BY LATE TOMORROW...RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO
THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE THE
KEY FEATURE IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST. GENERALLY THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH A STRONG RIDGE...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...KEEP RICHARD
ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WITH A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS
THE UKMET/ECMWF...AND TO AN EXTREME DEGREE THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE
RIDGE BEING ERODED RATHER QUICKLY AS A NEW UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THE WEAKER RIDGE IS MORE LIKELY...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. CONSIDERING THAT THE
NEW FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE.

[Blown Away]

The North and East NHC track shifts begin.

[caneseddy]

It seems the NHC is going with the weaker ridge which would imply a possible risk to Florida and also they no longer weaken it to a depression when it exits Yucatan.

Also a bit troubling that they may have to adjust the track Northeastward which could increse the chance the storm traverses over the flatter part of the YP and more towards Florida; maybe the runs from last night showing a clip of the YP were onto something

I'm starting to get that Wilma feeling again, although I don't expect Richard to get as strong as Wilma

[KWT]

Yeah hardly a surprise the track has gotten shifted to the NE, as the NHC have stated it could quite possibly need to get shifted a bit further east yet.

[ronjon]

NHC at 11 am:

"IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF
STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH
IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF RICHARD DEVELOPS THE RIGHT INNER CORE
STRUCTURE."

[caneseddy]

I'm telling you this is starting to feel like Wilma all over again

Of course, many many days to check this out...who knows it may turn into nothing

[Sanibel]

Looks like Richard won't be held down like Paula and should track into the Gulf. (Told you this pattern was defying the inevitable CONUS landfaller).


The trend is north and the tail end of the model tracks are starting to bend towards peninsular Florida.


TWC: Upper winds are predicted to descend south again next week and blow down any cyclone entering the GOM.


A lot depends on how much Yucatan land interaction Richard gets. Land should have a worse effect at this time of year.


This abnormal pattern has fledged a tropical system south of the Cape Verde Islands.

[Ivanhater]

The Euro, GFS and Canadian all show a ridge over the Florida Peninsula as this is moving north into the Gulf. Wxman looks right when he said this should keep moving north toward the Florida Panhandle as a sheared storm. That is the greatest threat right now.

Could change though.

[Weatherfreak000]

The North and East NHC track shifts begin.

No reason to believe that honestly. Seems NGOM is the best bet atm.

[caneseddy]

The Euro, GFS and Canadian all show a ridge over the Florida Peninsula as this is moving north into the Gulf. Wxman looks right when he said this should keep moving north toward the Florida Panhandle as a sheared storm. That is the greatest threat right now.

Could change though.

I'm hesitant to trust the GFS since it has busted on track; the GFS had this system heading into Central America and the EPAC just until recently and the Euro had this as well into Central America; only recently have they caught up with the bulk of the guidance. Also, the GFS busted pretty bad on Paula

It's a wait and see

[Sanibel]

It would be highly anomalous for 2010 to defy climatology completely. Climatology will show up eventually. Richard is starting to line-up a climatological track.


What I would watch for is Richard getting unexpectedly strong and creating its own environment that nudges next week's GOM upper winds back north a touch and allows preservation of hurricane intensity into Florida. My personal view is the SST's have been cooled enough to prevent the higher intensities, however we are slipping back up to 90 degrees here in south Florida over the next few days which might indicate just enough heat to maintain hurricane if the optimum conditions line-up. Probably won't happen, but you never know.

[cycloneye]

If the forecast by NHC of intensity verifies,Richard should put the Atlantic over the 150 ACE units needed to be classified as a hyperactive season. It only needs 8 units to reach it.

[ronjon]

The Euro, GFS and Canadian all show a ridge over the Florida Peninsula as this is moving north into the Gulf. Wxman looks right when he said this should keep moving north toward the Florida Panhandle as a sheared storm. That is the greatest threat right now.

Could change though.

I'm hesitant to trust the GFS since it has busted on track; the GFS had this system heading into Central America and the EPAC just until recently and the Euro had this as well into Central America; only have they caught up with the bulk of the guidance

It's a wait and see

The trend has been for a weaker ridge with time. If the 12Z GFS swings east, look out FL peninsula. I'm not ruling out a panhandle LF. Depends on the speed and strength of the trough entering the NW GOM in 5 days.

[KWT]

The North and East NHC track shifts begin.

No reason to believe that honestly. Seems NGOM is the best bet atm.

Models are shifting eastwards slowly but surely, for now though there are still alot of options on the table, I myself have to favour the Florida option...

Remember what happened with Paula where alot of models buried it into land but instead that never happened because it strengthened more then was expected. Same could well happen here.

[Blown Away]

The North and East NHC track shifts begin.

No reason to believe that honestly. Seems NGOM is the best bet atm.

Well the track has shifted N and E with each advisory, the NHC Discussion suggests the ridge may not be as strong as depicted by the global models and this would result in a more N and E track, and the GFDL/HWRF show SW FL system. Seems like alot of evidence to me.
The models that show NGOM basically bring Richard across central Yucatan, so if those tracks verify, IMO there won't be much left. The NHC track is currently north of these tracks.

[Ivanhater]

Yes models are shifting north and east as expected. I don't think a western Gulf solution was ever favored. However, it can't keep shifting east completely with a ridge in place over the Florida Peninsula. The models may come in with a weaker ridge, but imo there will still be a ridge over S.Florida.

[hurricaneCW]

The comparison to Wilma is quite eerie right now. The slow strengthening at the beginning due to wind shear, the track from the Yucatan and then NE ward, it's in October, and the possibility for a strong hurricane as depicted by some models.

It's also possible that if Richard drifts far enough to the SE, that maybe he'll either clip or make landfall in Honduras. The NHC track is pretty close to Honduras and I assume if Richard ends up further south than shown, then he could get really close to them before heading further north.