ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

GFS and Euro show a well established ridge over S. Florida. At this time, the panhandle is at greatest risk. Always need to watch to see if it changes though.

[Sanibel]

I don't think Wilma comparisons should be used. Wilma was at the tail-end of an unusually favorable streak of conditions in a very receptive environment. This year we have chilly air arriving in Florida early and strange Nina upper wind patterns. However I'll still be watching for black IR bursts in Richard.


Richard is arriving right in synch with the MJO plus phase - right?

[Weatherfreak000]

Yes models are shifting north and east as expected. I don't think a western Gulf solution was ever favored. However, it can't keep shifting east completely with a ridge in place over the Florida Peninsula. The models may come in with a weaker ridge, but imo there will still be a ridge over S.Florida.

My point exactly here, you guys probably know that for the models to realistically shift north and east to the extent where SFL is severely threatened, we would have to see this area NOT make landfall in the Yucatan or anywhere else, move quickly North and either beat the ridge or miraculously plow through it. No disrespect here....but using Climatology to determine track? I was one of the first members to preach on and on earlier this month and late September concerning the SFL landfall. (I have to say this again.)


HOWEVER, the atmosphere does. not. have. a. memory.


Edit: Looking possible for a nice Cat 1/TS event for you Ivanhater.

[Sanibel]

HOWEVER, the atmosphere does. not. have. a. memory.

I agree, however, climatology is, technically, a record of the atmosphere's 'memory'.

[caneman]

MY 2 cents worth. Why even project out 5 - 6 days. I believe a there is a 300 mile error out that far. Looks like Florida in general is at risk. Trying to pin it down anymore than that is futile. Wait til its 3 days before doing that because the models will continue to flop either East or West and/or both.

[caneseddy]

Yes models are shifting north and east as expected. I don't think a western Gulf solution was ever favored. However, it can't keep shifting east completely with a ridge in place over the Florida Peninsula. The models may come in with a weaker ridge, but imo there will still be a ridge over S.Florida.

My point exactly here, you guys probably know that for the models to realistically shift north and east to the extent where SFL is severely threatened, we would have to see this area NOT make landfall in the Yucatan or anywhere else, move quickly North and either beat the ridge or miraculously plow through it. No disrespect here....but using Climatology to determine track? I was one of the first members to preach on and on earlier this month and late September concerning the SFL landfall. (I have to say this again.)


HOWEVER, the atmosphere does. not. have. a. memory.


Edit: Looking possible for a nice Cat 1/TS event for you Ivanhater.

Actually, Wilma did make landfall in the Yucatan before trucking it towards SW/S Florida

[HURAKAN]

Nice loop

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think Wilma comparisons should be used. Wilma was at the tail-end of an unusually favorable streak of conditions in a very receptive environment. This year we have chilly air arriving in Florida early and strange Nina upper wind patterns. However I'll still be watching for black IR bursts in Richard.


Richard is arriving right in synch with the MJO plus phase - right?

I think we're in a very favorable streak, especially since it's la nina. The Caribbean is still very active in October and November. Just because Florida had seen chilly weather earlier than 2005 doesn't mean anything at this point. The entire east coast is undergoing a big pattern change or a change into a classic la nina pattern.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
Not of it's memory Sanibel, but its action. Climatology is defined as, "weather conditions averaged over a period of time".


This has NOTHING to do with TS Richard because you can never make assumptions based on statistical averages when the numbers are always gonna be different, the numbers being the synoptic pattern. Even if it were true the game was rigged, the numbers will still always be different, and you cannot rig the synoptic pattern. Hurricane Ike, anyone?

[cycloneye]

I don't think Wilma comparisons should be used. Wilma was at the tail-end of an unusually favorable streak of conditions in a very receptive environment. This year we have chilly air arriving in Florida early and strange Nina upper wind patterns. However I'll still be watching for black IR bursts in Richard.


Richard is arriving right in synch with the MJO plus phase - right?

The wet phase of MJO is starting to arrive with a peak between early to mid November.

[HURAKAN]

Richard may not be the last Caribbean storm this year. Incredible

[Sanibel]

And let's not forget it is still possible Richard could bust over Yucatan.

[AdamFirst]

Local CBS affiliate opening up their noon news broadcast with Richard...alludes to the NHC discussion saying the track might shift north and east and that we need to keep an eye on it.

[caneman]

And let's not forget it is still possible Richard could bust over Yucatan.

Not likely Sanibel. Maybe knocked down one category but not bust.

[KWT]

Thanks for that loop Hurakan, it does look like its trying to wrap up but any strengthening for now is going to be slow to occur from the looks of things.

[StormX]

Mhhh Richard could strike at any point between New Orleans and Tampa:



But first he have to survive Yucatan, as everybody know, Yucatan is often a graveyard for tropical storms!

[Vortex]

I won't be surprised a bit if it just brushes the yucatan and a landfall between the panhandle and Naples look about equal at this point....models will likely continue to shift east.....

[Vortex]

If we look back even 2 days we've seen a dramatic shift N and E....no reason this won't continue...the strength of the ridge is going to be a key player....

[Ntxw]

I don't understand comparisons to wilma other than track. and even that isn't quite the same. Wilma was an unprecedented combo of perfect atmospheric conditions with extremely warm waters in which has never come together in such an alignment before or after (hence strongest Atlantic system to date). Conditions now are favorable but not to that magnitude by any means...a lot of dry air around vs the monsoonal endlessness of moisture then. Still see Richard as a nice hurricane before Yucatan impacts imo.

Location of Ridge (it's la nina, ridge will be strong naturally) and how much the trough comes into play will determine where this thing goes after.

[KWT]

Paula showed how favourable the NW Caribbean is, getting upto 85kts and probably having slightly less time then Richard will have over water, I suspect we probably see a 2-3 out of this but its certainly not out of the question Richard becomes even stronger then that.

The Caribbean certainly is living up to its reputation of being active in late part of the season in a La Nina...