WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

I know we all don't trust NOGAPS so much, and GFS isnt developing this storm at all, but here is what Nogaps is showing

[KWT]

0z ECM doesn't even develop this on this run from the looks of things...

[StormingB81]

UPGRADED: Tropical Depression 16w

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210930Z OCT 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.3N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.0N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.2N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.6N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.3N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 140.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
210930Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210930).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W
(MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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[RobWESTPACWX]

I am blown away that JT warning on this one

[StormingB81]

Thanks HURAKAN, I was going to that but baby started to cry i was like good timimg..lol

[StormingB81]

I am blown away that JT warning on this one

WHy Blown away?

[KWT]

A touch surprising the JWTC is forecasting this one to get upto 60kts but we will see, either thats going to be right or the ECM is gonna bust...we will see!

[StormingB81]

From NWS Guam

[StormingB81]

With NWS Guam depending on going back N then NE could come really close to Okinawa..

[StormingB81]

anyone have to JTWC map..My Internet provider is blocked on the JTWC list we can't look at that site..I called they are waiting for JTWC to get us off the blocked list..nice huh

[StormingB81]

From WUnderground..Again something Okinawa may have to keep an eye on..

[RobWESTPACWX]

I am blown away that JT warning on this one

WHy Blown away?

With the large amount of shear to its north and since it is so disorganized I just was a little surprised that it developed at all. Also there is a lot of dry inflow in to it, it almost looks subtropical. On that note I will stick with thinking this will not get that strong, a weak TS tops. Maybe a slight rain maker for Okinawa in the long run. Nothing severe. my thoughts though....

[KWT]

Yeah I tend to agree Rob I just can't see this doing very much at all....who knows we may end up being surprised in the end and the track suggests we probably at least need to keep an eye on it but I don't think it gets quite as high as 60kts...

[ManilaTC]

ECMWF RESOLVES A WEAKER SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE PREMATURE RECURVATURE OF NOGAPS AND THE NEAR WESTWARD STRAIGHT-RUNNING ECMWF SOLUTION.

This concerns me as this would take the storm over Luzon again.

[KWT]

True but note the ECM is weaker according to that forecast, therefore I think its one of those solutions where a stronger system probably recurves up whilst if it stays weak it goes more westwards.

[KWT]

Actually looking at the 12z ECM, its a good deal stronger then the 00z run and develops it and recurves the system towards far south Japan in 8-9 days time...

[StormingB81]

It gets really close to Okinawa too

[StormingB81]

JTWC Track gets interesting people may have to watch this...looks like it is going more west then what first came up

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 139.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.1N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.8N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.6N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.6N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.4N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.4N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 138.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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