ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

This is south of CV islands.

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invest_al902010.invest
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040
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201010211211
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010102012, , BEST, 0, 96N, 185W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102018, , BEST, 0, 97N, 195W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102100, , BEST, 0, 98N, 205W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102106, , BEST, 0, 99N, 215W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 225W, 20, 1010, LO

[cycloneye]

This was the 8 AM TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EVEN
THOUGH THIS IS HISTORICALLY NOT A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN LATE OCTOBER...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[KWT]

Talk about coming out of no where!

An interesting looking system, its very rare for a CV system to form at this time of the year, indeed I'd imagine it'd be nearly exceptional. Still it does look to be quite interesting at the moment, I'd personally go for 20% right now.

ps, the ECM eventually develops this in 3-4 days time.

[Cyclone1]

Suddenly the tropical depression in the Caribbean has lost my interest for this little oddball. Wow. This would make for a fascinating storm.

[HURAKAN]

impressive little system

[abajan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like it has a pretty decent chance of development but practically 0% chance that it will come all the way across the Atlantic to threaten our region. Too early to call it a fish though because who’s to say the Azores, for instance, won’t be threatened by it at some point?

[hurricaneCW]

Forget the track, we know nothing can come across this late in the season. It will be fascinating to see if anything can come out of it though.

[KWT]

It'd certainly be impressive if anything formed, I suspect it has a shot further north where the SST's are only just starting to cool down in any major fashion BUT the upper levels are pretty cold already compared to what they were a few months ago.

[brunota2003]

Wow...when was the last time there was an invest for an area that far SE in late October?

[cycloneye]

It looks like early September with this invest way out there.

[KWT]

I'm not sure the last time we had a system that far SE in the tropical Atlantic at this time of the year, its certainly on the uncommon side thats for sure!

[AJC3]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like it has a pretty decent chance of development but practically 0% chance that it will come all the way across the Atlantic to threaten our region. Too early to call it a fish though because who’s to say the Azores, for instance, won’t be threatened by it at some point?

Moreover, the CVI are a few hours away from being affected by some rain bands/lower end squalls coming in from the SE.

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't a typical October track extrapolated onto this area send it straight back towards Europe?

[clfenwi]

Playing with the hurricane historical tracks for a little bit, there's no storms on record forming within 200 miles of this area after September. Latest I could find in the 65 nm area for September was the last hurricane of 1893 ( track ), which is in the books with a start date of September 26. 1996 Isidore and 1998 Jeanne (which followed Ivan's path that year) had more of the track one would expect for the time of year.

[KWT]

I suspect Crazy a track NW and then eventually to the north perhaps close to the Azores, but early days yet. Probably has a fair shot at coming close to being upgraded.

[CrazyC83]

Shockin' Shary potential?

[abajan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like it has a pretty decent chance of development but practically 0% chance that it will come all the way across the Atlantic to threaten our region. Too early to call it a fish though because who’s to say the Azores, for instance, won’t be threatened by it at some point?

Moreover, the CVI are a few hours away from being affected by some rain bands/lower end squalls coming in from the SE.

I purposely neglected to mention the Cape Verde islands because I figured it would need time to develop into a TS and would have already passed them by the time it did so. Perhaps I’m wrong about that though.

[HURAKAN]

nice loop

[HURAKAN]

Shockin' Shary potential?

Shockin' Shary sounds cool!!!

[Gustywind]

pretty surprising at this time of the season...