ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[ronjon]

As if to muddy up the waters further, latest GFS model buries Richard into CA.

[dwsqos2]

Perhaps Richard will follow the path of the 12Z gfs. It certainly isn't intensifying with any haste. In fact, the pressures at buoy 42057 have risen a bit. Satellite intensity estimates fell a bit between 06Z and 12Z. I remain firm with my no 'cane call.

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[cycloneye]

As if to muddy up the waters further, latest GFS model buries Richard into CA.

Keeps it very weak,while GFDL and HWRF have a major.That is why the track differences.

[Ntxw]

CA call isn't totally out of the realms as long as Richard keeps moving south as it's doing. Needs to shift west more soon if it wants to stay over water longer.

[KWT]

dwsqos2, yeah it doesn't look any better, still you've got a TS with 72hrs+ over some still impressive heat content heading westwards in a La Nina Caribbean, I think I'd put the odds of getting a hurricane out of this somewhere around 80-85% at the moment, its got ages to of time to play about with yet...if it looks the same in 36-48hrs then you may be right but even then...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Its not forecast to strengthen till after 48hrs...

[CourierPR]

dwsqos2, yeah it doesn't look any better, still you've got a TS with 72hrs+ over some still impressive heat content heading westwards in a La Nina Caribbean, I think I'd put the odds of getting a hurricane out of this somewhere around 80-85% at the moment, its got ages to of time to play about with yet...if it looks the same in 36-48hrs then you may be right but even then...

I disagree. I think it does look better in structure and organization based on latest satellite photos.

[cycloneye]

The big question is if NHC will shift the track southwards,following GFS,NOGAPS, or they will stay with the northern one.

[GCANE]

Check the small hot-tower SW of Jamacia shown by TRMM Precip-Radar.

Interesting microwave.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

CIMSS says shear is 5.2 m/s (10 knots)

OHC speaks for itself.

[Vortex]

The GFS also had this landfalling over Nicaragua by this point day after day...GFS has done a very good job overall this season. However, to say the GFS has done a poor job to this point is generous...looking back over the last 36 hours the GFDL appears to have done the best job verifying....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Depends what the GFDL and HwRF do Luis. Prob Euro will factor in too...

[cycloneye]

The big question is if NHC will shift the track southwards,following GFS,NOGAPS, or they will stay with the northern one.

I just read the excellent explanation by MW at the models thread that says it all.

[KWT]

Yeah heat content is still pretty awesome at the moment, I see no reason why this can't become a hurricane down the line jusdt as the NHC and most guidence is suggesting bar the globals (Which sucked BIG TIME with Paula's strength)

[CourierPR]

I see a lot of model discussion here. Isn't there a separate thread for that?

[KWT]

I disagree. I think it does look better in structure and organization based on latest satellite photos.

Hmmm IMO its holding steady right now, I don't see any real changes in structure, still has that lopsided look with the circulation on the SW side of the system, until that changes any strengthening is going to be fairly slow. Still these things can change in the space of 4-6hrs so plenty of time for it to attain a look much more condusive for strengtheing.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes there is Courier and like Cycloneye mentioned MWatkins came up with an excellent post regarding Richard's future movement.

[GCANE]

Excellent vertical alignment of the PV column bottom-up.

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Vortexes all over the place but in the last few frames it appears convection starting to coalesce near the center.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm very impressed with the banding that's becoming evident on visible imagery. Impressive for a lopsided system. It also looks like the mid level vorticity is increasing.

[SouthDadeFish]

He's got that comma signature developing with core convective tops cooling. Nice.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1