ATL: RICHARD - Models

[MWatkins]

Glad I don't have to make a forecast like the NHC does, but if I had to pick a camp?

Camp 1: NOGAPS, CMC and GFS keep richard fairly weak and take it westward...no change.

Camp 2: HWRF, EURO and GFDL aren't in yet, but not expecting changes from those models either.

Looking at vapor imagery, looks like the trough axis is sitting right around western Cuba. The dry environment to the west is moderating some...and the convection looks a little more consolidated than 6 hours ago.

I am leaning toward Camp 2 if I had to pick right now...but that's a low confidence forecast , would like to see the rest of the 12Z guidance come in and see what the next crew finds down there.

MW

[wzrgirl1]

Glad I don't have to make a forecast like the NHC does, but if I had to pick a camp?

Camp 1: NOGAPS, CMC and GFS keep richard fairly weak and take it westward...no change.

Camp 2: HWRF, EURO and GFDL aren't in yet, but not expecting changes from those models either.

Looking at vapor imagery, looks like the trough axis is sitting right around western Cuba. The dry environment to the west is moderating some...and the convection looks a little more consolidated than 6 hours ago.

I am leaning toward Camp 2 if I had to pick right now...but that's a low confidence forecast , would like to see the rest of the 12Z guidance come in and see what the next crew finds down there.

MW

That was what I thought you might say. Let's see what happens. Should be an interesting couple of days until we see the 5-day and 3-day forecasts come in to better agreement.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is the water vapor wide view loop. showing that trough axis near western Cuba.

[jconsor]

I'm leaning more toward a landfall anywhere
from Apalachee Bay south toward SW FL at this point. The ECMWF ensemble has a significantly weaker ridge over the Bahamas and SW Atlantic than the operational ECMWF, implying a track further east and significantly faster than the operational.

[northjaxpro]

It is setting up potentially to be some very interesting days ahead monitoring Richard.

Lots of scenarios could play out with this cyclone, but if Richard intensifies in the next few days, I would definitely be inclined to think that the GFDL, HWRF and Euro models would be the models of choice. A strengthening cyclone more likely would move more north and east.

The scenario which really would allow an opportunity for Richard to intensify into a potential major hurricane would be for its inner core to track through the Yucatan Channel without any land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. That is what I will be really watching to see if this materializes over the next 4-5 days.

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF is slower and to the right previous runs. 120H:

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest HWRF is slower but still aimed at FL. Might be even farther south....

[SouthDadeFish]

Oops I didn't mean to repeat, you just beat me to it. GFDL should be out shortly.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF is slower which is a step in the right direction. Being the HWRF is the right outlier and has it over western Cuba at 114 hours. Look at what the 12z GFS has waiting for it, a bigger and expansive ridge over S.Florida. If the HWRF slows down even more, it is going to hit the ridge on future runs.

12z GFS

[SouthDadeFish]

Or this ridge wont ever be as strong as the GFS says it will be. Perhaps the Euro ensembles will be correct.

[Vortex]

Latest HWRF is slower but still aimed at FL. Might be even farther south....

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... 2_wind.png

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... 112_31.png

FWIW, classic October track....

[Ivanhater]

Or this ridge wont ever be as strong as the GFS says it will be. Perhaps the Euro ensembles will be correct.

We will have to see, but the GFS and others are trending toward a stronger ridge, not a weaker one. Either way you cut it, it certainly is an interesting late season storm!

[Ntxw]

Or this ridge wont ever be as strong as the GFS says it will be. Perhaps the Euro ensembles will be correct.

I wouldn't doubt the ridge if anything. It's a La Nina pattern, the SE ridge is king (it's going to get might warm in Florida before it cools off after the system showing how prevalent the ridge will be). It will depend on how deep/timing of the trough coming in is at that time to recurve the system if it avoids land before then.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm just disappointed with the way the GFS has handled the last two storms. It is a very interesting storm, that's for sure. NOAA will fly the G-IV tomorrow night and then we'll see whats up

[Ivanhater]

That is some ridge over the SE on the 12z GFS. If the HWRF and GFDL continue the slower movement in future runs, the Florida Peninsula has a wall in front of it. Well see...

[northjaxpro]

Or this ridge wont ever be as strong as the GFS says it will be. Perhaps the Euro ensembles will be correct.

I wouldn't doubt the ridge if anything. It's a La Nina pattern, the SE ridge is king (it's going to get might warm in Florida before it cools off after the system showing how prevalent the ridge will be). It will depend on how deep/timing of the trough coming in is at that time to recurve the system.

Excellent point Ntxw. This La Nina has been a strong one this season, and the persistent High pressure ridge over the Continental SE US has been a mainstay since July. So theoretically, it is very possible with this persistent pattern that the GFS may be onto something with holding the ridge firmly over the region by early next week.

We just have to wait and see if GFS verifies or not.

[SouthDadeFish]

I guess a ridge was in place since July except when Nicole and Paula passed by.

[northjaxpro]

Overall, the pattern of the SE US Ridge has been in place for the most part for the past few months. That is the point. Of course, the ridge can get temporarily displaced some to the east dependent upon the strength of any mid latitude troughs or shortwaves coming through the westerlies. That of course happened with Paula and Nicole to a certain extent with the ridge.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL Text

937
WHXX04 KWBC 211752
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD 19L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.4 80.7 155./ 5.0
6 16.3 80.4 129./ 2.5
12 16.2 80.6 225./ 1.5
18 16.3 80.7 322./ 2.3
24 16.7 80.9 331./ 4.3
30 16.7 81.1 259./ 1.5
36 17.0 81.5 306./ 5.1
42 16.9 81.8 256./ 3.3
48 17.2 82.3 306./ 5.5
54 17.5 83.1 286./ 7.9
60 17.8 83.9 292./ 8.7
66 18.2 84.8 292./ 9.7
72 18.8 85.8 302./11.2
78 19.4 86.8 300./11.0
84 20.2 87.6 317./10.3
90 20.9 88.1 326./ 9.2
96 21.8 88.2 352./ 8.9
102 22.7 87.9 20./ 8.8
108 23.5 87.3 34./10.0
114 24.4 86.8 31./10.5
120 25.5 86.0 34./13.0
126 26.9 85.2 32./15.8

[SouthDadeFish]

Overall, the pattern of the SE Us Ridge has been in place for the most part for the past few months. That is the point. Of course, the ridge can get temporarily displaced some to the east dependent upon the strength of any mid latitude thoughs or shortwaves coming through the westerlies. That of course happened with Paula and Nicole to a certain extent with the ridge.

Yeah you're right, I get you. Just saying there have been other exceptions this season I found interesting that the Forecast office in Miami mentioned TD 19 multiple times this morning:

THE LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME...TAKE DEPRESSION #19 WEST INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WEAKENS IT...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW
FOR THE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO RELAX BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF DEPRESSION #19. FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON DEPRESSION #19...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.