ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Has the SE drift stopped? Who has a good loop?

[dwsqos2]

I'm not impressed with what appears to be a very elongated surface circulation.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm not impressed with what appears to be a very elongated surface circulation.

Going by your posts, you are reacting as if this is a system that has already been established and can do better. Earlier you said that you believe the storm will follow the "stay weak" forecast because it is weak now. Don't judge the system based off what it is now. Judge it based off what it is now compared to what it was before. It is a storm that is continuously strengthening and organizing.

[psyclone]

at the very least this is a heck of a lot more interesting than nicole or paula ever were (from a fl threat standpoint) as those were jokes from go. this one has my attention. i'm sure glad the water off our coast is 77 instead of 87. that should at least help should this guy come up this way (which, at this point, is only one of several reasonable scenarios). i'll happily take a sheared clunker... we need the rain.

[GCANE]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Vortexes all over the place but in the last few frames it appears convection starting to coalesce near the center.

That was an impressive overshooting top in the last few frames very near the LLC - maybe a hot-tower.

[wxman57]

"Final" landfall is far from a done deal. GFS/CMC now shifted well south and take the storm across Honduras with remnants moving into the southern BoC. Question is, will the ridge over FL be strong enough to force it so far west? Can't rule that out, I suppose.

Oh, and as for the 5-day track, the NHC is now producing a 7-day in-house track in a "testing phase" before going public with the 7-day track in 2-3 years. That'll be interesting to see a cone about 1000 miles across at day 7.

[GCANE]

Rain-rate is really picking up.

[SouthDadeFish]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Vortexes all over the place but in the last few frames it appears convection starting to coalesce near the center.

That was an impressive overshooting top in the last few frames very near the LLC - maybe a hot-tower.

Looks like a possible hot tower here too:

[TheBurn]

[GCANE]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Vortexes all over the place but in the last few frames it appears convection starting to coalesce near the center.

That was an impressive overshooting top in the last few frames very near the LLC - maybe a hot-tower.

Looks like a possible hot tower here too: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg

Sure looks like one.

[hurricaneCW]

The shear may be diminishing, but the dry air will be here to stay. It might take a while for Richard to get going. It's going to have to moisten the environment around it and that could take a 2-3 days to do so. Once it does that, anything is possible, strength wise.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 19, 2010102118, , BEST, 0, 161N, 804W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still moving SSE.

[LarryWx]

Oh, and as for the 5-day track, the NHC is now producing a 7-day in-house track in a "testing phase" before going public with the 7-day track in 2-3 years. That'll be interesting to see a cone about 1000 miles across at day 7.

I think the implementation of this would be a very bad idea.

[GCANE]

[Blown Away]

"Final" landfall is far from a done deal. GFS/CMC now shifted well south and take the storm across Honduras with remnants moving into the southern BoC. Question is, will the ridge over FL be strong enough to force it so far west? Can't rule that out, I suppose.

Oh, and as for the 5-day track, the NHC is now producing a 7-day in-house track in a "testing phase" before going public with the 7-day track in 2-3 years. That'll be interesting to see a cone about 1000 miles across at day 7.

7 day cone would be good for recruiting new members for Storm2k!!

[xironman]

The shear may be diminishing, but the dry air will be here to stay. It might take a while for Richard to get going. It's going to have to moisten the environment around it and that could take a 2-3 days to do so. Once it does that, anything is possible, strength wise.

Without shear dry air can have a much weaker effect, there is no transport into the storm.

[Ntxw]

"Final" landfall is far from a done deal. GFS/CMC now shifted well south and take the storm across Honduras with remnants moving into the southern BoC. Question is, will the ridge over FL be strong enough to force it so far west? Can't rule that out, I suppose.

Oh, and as for the 5-day track, the NHC is now producing a 7-day in-house track in a "testing phase" before going public with the 7-day track in 2-3 years. That'll be interesting to see a cone about 1000 miles across at day 7.

7 day cone would be good for recruiting new members for Storm2k!!

And even more heated (albeit friendly) debates! I think Richard will moisten up the surrounding atmosphere, though slowly.

[Cyclone1]

Oh, and as for the 5-day track, the NHC is now producing a 7-day in-house track in a "testing phase" before going public with the 7-day track in 2-3 years. That'll be interesting to see a cone about 1000 miles across at day 7.

I think the implementation of this would be a very bad idea.

Not unless they can up the Accuracy. If we can accurately predict 7-days out, a 7-day one would be amazing.

[ozonepete]

"Final" landfall is far from a done deal. GFS/CMC now shifted well south and take the storm across Honduras with remnants moving into the southern BoC. Question is, will the ridge over FL be strong enough to force it so far west? Can't rule that out, I suppose.

Oh, and as for the 5-day track, the NHC is now producing a 7-day in-house track in a "testing phase" before going public with the 7-day track in 2-3 years. That'll be interesting to see a cone about 1000 miles across at day 7.

7 day cone would be good for recruiting new members for Storm2k!!

LOL! Florida and New York could be in the same cone...

[LarryWx]

Oh, and as for the 5-day track, the NHC is now producing a 7-day in-house track in a "testing phase" before going public with the 7-day track in 2-3 years. That'll be interesting to see a cone about 1000 miles across at day 7.

I think the implementation of this would be a very bad idea.

Not unless they can up the Accuracy. If we can accurately predict 7-days out, a 7-day one would be amazing.

It would be. If a frog had wings, it could fly. The cone is going to have to be quite wide in most cases. More places are going to be in the cone more often. I suspect this will lead to even more overhype.