ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[Vortex]

low-confidence in the track sums it up...

[Ntxw]

low-confidence in the track sums it up...

That's for sure. But immediate track isn't as low. It's the 3+ days but that's pretty typical for any system.

[Ivanhater]

I think the intensification process has begun as shear seems to abating. I think a hurricane is very possible tomorrow and will not be as long at the NHC is currently thinking (Saturday afternoon).

[maxx9512]

Looking (staring) at the visable loops it seems to have stopped or barely moving south anymore.
I know NHC has it moving but.... Does anyone agree?

[Blown Away]

The NHC track line didn't change much, but I did notice they slowed the 4-5 day NW motion down.

[wxman57]

NHC basically slowed the storm way down over the Yucatan to avoid pointing it anywhere across the northern Gulf Coast, it appears. They do that often when they're not sure where a storm will go. No sense in alarming people unnecessarily, they figure, by pointing a storm at them when they're not very confident if it will even enter the southern Gulf.

[KWT]

Track looks pretty reasonable to me, I wouldn't be shocked though to see it shift just a little east, esp if this one does decide to really take off in the next 24hrs. Wouldn't shock me to see a hurricane tomorrow either, presentation looks better now.

How many storms have actually hit the N.Gulf full stop after the 15th of October by the way, can't be that many away from perhaps the E.Panhandle and the W.Florida coasts.

[Blown Away]

I see stationary with the deep red convection building west likely due to reduced shear.

[northjaxpro]

Looking (staring) at the visable loops it seems to have stopped or barely moving south anymore.
I know NHC has it moving but.... Does anyone agree?

NHC barely had it moving S-S/SE at 3 mph in thier 5:00 P.M. package.

I think the loop will commence later tonight and a more westward drift should start within the next 24 hours or so as the ridge builds in.

[Blown Away]

Track looks pretty reasonable to me, I wouldn't be shocked though to see it shift just a little east, esp if this one does decide to really take off in the next 24hrs. Wouldn't shock me to see a hurricane tomorrow either, presentation looks better now.

How many storms have actually hit the N.Gulf full stop after the 15th of October by the way, can't be that many away from perhaps the E.Panhandle and the W.Florida coasts.

I agree, either dies over CA/Yucatan or hits Florida peninsula. Who knows right now??

[KWT]

Honduras may well need a hurricane watch just in case this system decides to keep drifting southwards a little further. I don't think that will happen but it does need to be watched.

Looking better and better now, I think recon will find a somewhat stronger system, maybe 45kts.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Recon flying towards the system right now so we will soon find out whether the system has strengthened like some of us have expected or not.

[Blown Away]

GFS against climatology right now, I guess we will know in a week or so!

[Dean4Storms]

Mobile, AL AFD.......


MORE INTERESTING GOINGS ON BY WED AND THU. THE STORY WILL BE WRITTEN
BY A SYSTEM CALLED RICHARD. OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL
STORM RICHARD MEANDERS BETWEEN THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND
JAMAICA WITHIN A WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROF OVER
THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS OUT AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR RICHARD TO STRENGTHEN TO
HURRICANE STATUS WHILE ADVANCING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. RICHARD WEAKENING OVER THE YUCATAN IS FORECAST TO PULL
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN A BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF/STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RICHARD IS FORECAST
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH ITS CIRCULATION CURVING NORTHEAST
IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
RICHARD`S FUTURE TRACK AND ITS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL
TROF OUT OF THE PLAINS. WITH GULF TEMPERATURES COOLER AND UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING HOSTILE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...LATEST FORECASTS CALL FOR RICHARD TO BE IN A WEAKENED STATE AS
IT HEADS MORE POLEWARD LATER NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION
ON RICHARD...SEE DISCUSSIONS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. STAY
TUNED. /10

[cycloneye]

Plane flying at operational altitud.Lets see if they find a stronger Richard or not.

[warmer]

convection seem to move to the west now

[wxman57]

I doubt they'll discover anything significant tonight. Once the shear dies off overnight, we should see some big changes as far as organization and movement.

[Ivanhater]

I doubt they'll discover anything significant tonight. Once the shear dies off overnight, we should see some big changes as far as organization and movement.

You seem quite bullish for this system in the NW Caribbean. I agree though. A hurricane is very possible tomorrow imo.

[calmbeforestorm1]

I think the strength is the key to where Richard ends up. The GFDL and HRWF show a very strong system being steered by the mid and upper level flow which would bring it into Florida. A weak system would be steered around the surface high which would take the system into C.A. or the southern yucatan. The NHC forecast track is the least likely solution in my opinion because it's a compromise track. I still maintain that any threat for a strong hurricane hitting the CONUS would be from Tampa southward. BTW. Both the GFDL and HWRF show no southward progress from the present position so the current latitude might be a benchmark for the eventual outcome.

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