ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[fci]

Maybe one of those systems that goes towards the East?
Back in 2005; Vince formed well north of 90L but swung back to the Iberian Peninsula.
Well, I guess this will move a little North and just go poof soon anyway...

[KWT]

Looking at the models a track maybe not too different to Julia at least in the short term seems probable followed by a northward motion. That'd be my punt, esp if it was to develop.

[Weatherfreak000]

19 storms this season?

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

[northjaxpro]

19 storms this season?

In a poll that was conducted about a month ago, 19 storms was the number I was going for as well with 3 tropical cyclones developing in October and one in November.

I am definitely amazed that we are seeing a well developed invest that far east in the Atlantic this late in the season. If 90L goes on to become a name system, that will already get us to 19 befor the end of October. It is conceivable we could get two more named cyclones next month before we close the book on Hurricane season 2010.

[CrazyC83]

19 storms this season?

In a poll that was conducted about a month ago, 19 storms was the number I was going for as well with 3 tropical cyclones developing in October and one in November.

I am definitely amazed that we are seeing a well developed invest that far east in the Atlantic this late in the season. If 90L goes on to become a name system, that will already get us to 19 befor the end of October. It is conceivable we could get two more named cyclones next month before we close the book on Hurricane season 2010.

I wouldn't even rule out the return of the Greek sorority Alpha, but that would require a wild finish to the year.

[Macrocane]

30% chance of development in an area just south of Cape Verde islands, are you sure we're in october?

[CrazyC83]

30% chance of development in an area just south of Cape Verde islands, are you sure we're in october?

Not to mention a week and a half from November...that would be shocking if something got going there. I would think it would recurve VERY early...perhaps up into Europe or northwest Africa?

[hurricaneCW]

I wouldn't even rule out the return of the Greek sorority Alpha, but that would require a wild finish to the year.[/quote]

Favorable MJO conditions and continued high ssts in the Caribbean favor more activity after Richard, I could see another storm in the 1st week of November developing in the Caribbean if the upper level conditions are favorable enough.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 90, 2010102118, , BEST, 0, 102N, 235W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[TheBurn]

[Cryomaniac]

Looks pretty good for this time of year in that location. I think it might make a run at being at least TD 20 if not Shary.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

19 storms this season?

I am definitely amazed that we are seeing a well developed invest that far east in the Atlantic this late in the season. If 90L goes on to become a name system, that will already get us to 19 befor the end of October. It is conceivable we could get two more named cyclones next month before we close the book on Hurricane season 2010.

Nitpick: This would only be 18 named storms before the end of October. "S" is the 19th letter of the alphabet, but the official lists do not use "Q", so the "S" storm is only #18.

[Ptarmigan]

If 90L formed, I am going to be really amazed. The Cape Verde region is not that favorable this time around. With La Nina, it is possible. La Nina seems to be more favorable to Cape Verde like we saw in September.

[HURAKAN]

It's already the best wave this month!!

[northjaxpro]

19 storms this season?

I am definitely amazed that we are seeing a well developed invest that far east in the Atlantic this late in the season. If 90L goes on to become a name system, that will already get us to 19 befor the end of October. It is conceivable we could get two more named cyclones next month before we close the book on Hurricane season 2010.

Nitpick: This would only be 18 named storms before the end of October. "S" is the 19th letter of the alphabet, but the official lists do not use "Q", so the "S" storm is only #18.

LOL.. I don't mind the nitpick at all. With so many storms this season, it is easy to lose track. Thanks for the correction.

Meanwhile, as I pointed out in an earlier post, I am just bowled over at how impressive this invest is at this late stage of the season this far out in the Atlantic. 90L has a very impressive satellite presentation in terms of structure with very good outflow and excellent curved banding rotating into the developing circulation center. There have been some other TDs and invests this season that hasn't looked as impressive as this one does at the moment. For me, 90L is looking very much like not only a TD, but possibly a tropical storm already near the CV islands. Amazing for late October.

[KWT]

It does sorta look like a system that could quite readily develop a few days down the line once it gets a little further to the north...we will see, I'd imagine at best its 50-50 of developing simply because of its location...but it does look like its on its way at the same time.

[Weatherfreak000]

Structurally this thing is a beauty. Convection looks healthy too. I would up the chances to 50% at 8 P.M.

Now it's looking like a coinflip for Shary. Unreal. Greek Alphabet?

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

50% probably is reasonable, convection is abit on the light side though looking at IR but can't deny the structure is good at the moment!