ATL: RICHARD - Models

[KWT]

Wow the 18z GFS actually keeps it moving WSW from the looks of things, I've got massive doubts that comes off, esp as the system is strengthening and that alone will IMO be enough in this set-up to induce at least some northward motion.

Still can't totally rule out any solution right now I suppose!

[northjaxpro]

GFS is strenthening the ridge big time based on the 18z run. KWT, as you pointed out, that solution is not to be discounted.

We should know more from the models regarding the future path hopefully during this upcoming weekend.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm like wxman27, don't put too much trust in the 18z GFS.

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRF drops the idea of ramming Richard into the ridge over S. Florida. It now joins the other models with a Yucatan hit. Much more realistic.

[cycloneye]

Looks a little more slower.Wow, a cat 3 hitting Belize/Yucatan.

[Sanibel]

GFDL shifts left. Heads towards Nature Coast after Yucatan crossing.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF now in agreement with the NHC cone.

[Vortex]

The hurricane models are now begin to allign more and more with the globals at this point...starting to think this becomes a cat 1-2 and heads for Belize/Yucatan then weakens considerablly overland and the remnant low and moisture get drawn N into the approaching front....if this verifies there wouldn't be much of anything for the US...

[Vortex]

I think HWRF looks very reasonable as far as track and maybe a bit to bullish with intensity....

[Vortex]

If the 00Z GFDL/HWRF come in with a similar solution then I think the trend is real...The 18Z GFDL yesterday did head west into belize and wash out after all day runs headed towards the SE Gulf only to revert back to the SE Gulf on the 00z run...

[Ntxw]

If the 00Z GFDL/HWRF come in with a similar solution then I think the trend is real...The 18Z GFDL yesterday did head west into belize and wash out after all day runs headed towards the SE Gulf only to revert back to the SE Gulf on the 00z run...

That's true, but the consensus (trend) generally has always been the Yucatan peninsula. It's been the outliers that people have been putting emphasis on what they think would happen.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

777
WHXX01 KWBC 220010
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC FRI OCT 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD (AL192010) 20101022 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101022  0000   101022  1200   101023  0000   101023  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  80.5W   15.4N  81.6W   14.7N  83.0W   13.8N  84.9W
BAMD    16.0N  80.5W   16.2N  81.0W   16.5N  81.6W   16.9N  82.6W
BAMM    16.0N  80.5W   15.6N  81.4W   15.1N  82.6W   14.4N  84.4W
LBAR    16.0N  80.5W   16.4N  80.9W   17.5N  81.5W   18.8N  82.3W
SHIP        35KTS          41KTS          46KTS          52KTS
DSHP        35KTS          41KTS          46KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101024  0000   101025  0000   101026  0000   101027  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  86.6W   12.2N  89.1W   12.0N  89.9W   12.5N  90.8W
BAMD    17.2N  84.2W   18.2N  88.5W   20.0N  90.6W   21.7N  91.9W
BAMM    13.9N  86.4W   12.9N  89.8W   12.1N  91.8W   11.5N  93.8W
LBAR    20.3N  83.0W   23.3N  84.4W   27.6N  82.8W   33.8N  75.1W
SHIP        56KTS          62KTS          60KTS          51KTS
DSHP        56KTS          62KTS          35KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.0N LONCUR =  80.5W DIRCUR = 160DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  16.6N LONM12 =  80.6W DIRM12 = 162DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  17.5N LONM24 =  81.2W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =   90NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Dean4Storms]

If the GFDL is found to be correct in the 18z run and Richard does emerge off the north coast of the Yucatan it will have a small window to re-strengthen over the southern Gulf before it gets to cooler SST's in the northern Gulf and the UL shear. Also, this front could inject an increasingly faster moving motion allowing Richard to still maintain some punch toward the northern or Northeastern Gulf. I remember Opal got absorbed in a front and hurricane force winds were felt all the way to Montgomery, AL and some gusts to hurricane force even reached the Atlanta area. Yes, Opal moved ashore as a Cat. 3 but was weakening rapidly. But I wouldn't be surprised for a fast moving Cat. 1 hurricane in the southern to central Gulf moving rapidly northward making a landfall with at least top end Tropical Storm winds.

[Vortex]

00Z Nam rolling in and quite a bit further North than prior runs..not sure if the NAM has any digested recon data used earlier today

H48


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Vortex]

I think we'll see the models shift back towards the east some later tonight...once we get a more desernible movement the models should stabilize some..I'm starting to think that the potent short wave expected along the NGOM Mon/Tue may weaken the ridge over FL enough to allow for the system to track through the yucatan channel and across w/sw FL on Wednesday....This also alligns very well with climatology...

[Vortex]

00Z NAM at H66 500mb...Further North and the shortwave digging over Texas may play a pivotal role early next week...


H66 500 mb


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

[Vortex]

500mb H72 ridge axis over western bahamas as shortwave digs SE....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[Vortex]

00Z NAM 500mb at H84...much further north this run...ridge axis weaker and to the east of FL as potent shortwave digs along the NGOM...



H84 500mb


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[Vortex]

here's the 500mb loop of the 00Z NAM...notice the turn to the NW towards the end as shortwave digs into the SE US...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml