ATL: RICHARD - Models

[Vortex]

towards the end of run the ridge is displaced well to the east..this pattern would likely result in a turn to the N the NE across FL...

[Vortex]

00Z NAM loop...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Yeah quite a difference from the 18z. Still a long way to go before we know where this ends up

[cycloneye]

Lets see if the rest of the models at 00z run do the same.

[calmbeforestorm1]

towards the end of run the ridge is displaced well to the east..this pattern would likely result in a turn to the N the NE across FL...

The ridge depicted by the GFS at is not that strong and would not build over florida if a strong hurricane was approaching that area.

[SouthDadeFish]

The NAM isn't known for its tropical forecasting, but its forecasts of ridge and trough positions should definitely be taken into consideration.

[SouthDadeFish]

The NAM keeps Richard in practically the same area for the next 48 hours. At its current rate of speed, seems reasonable to me.

[Ivanhater]

The GFS shows the same shortwave. The ridge builds in as the shortwave lifts out by day 5 and 6. The shortwave could allow this to get tugged more north and not slam into Central America, but not enough to curve it NE imo, as a ridge will be expanding over Florida.

Nam only goes out 84 hours so it won't show this progression.

[calmbeforestorm1]

The GFS shows the same shortwave. The ridge builds in as the shortwave lifts out by day 5 and 6. The shortwave could allow this to get tugged more north and not slam into Central America, but not enough to curve it NE imo, as a ridge will be expanding over Florida.

Nam only goes out 84 hours so it won't show this progression.

So a strong storm in the Yucatan channel would allow a ridge to build over s. florida?

[gatorcane]

The GFS shows the same shortwave. The ridge builds in as the shortwave lifts out by day 5 and 6. The shortwave could allow this to get tugged more north and not slam into Central America, but not enough to curve it NE imo, as a ridge will be expanding over Florida.

Nam only goes out 84 hours so it won't show this progression.

I would not put faith in the models after 84 hours in this type of complex situation.

If Richard intensifies more than forecast, it would feel that shortwave especially when you look at the 200mb to 300mb flow

[Ivanhater]

The GFS shows the same shortwave. The ridge builds in as the shortwave lifts out by day 5 and 6. The shortwave could allow this to get tugged more north and not slam into Central America, but not enough to curve it NE imo, as a ridge will be expanding over Florida.

Nam only goes out 84 hours so it won't show this progression.

So a strong storm in the Yucatan channel would allow a ridge to build over s. florida?

What model has this over the Yucatan channel? And yes, the ridge looks stout to me over South Florida by day 5, 6 and 7.

[boca]

If their is a ridge centered over S FL then we have to think that will dodge another bullet.I'm sure the models will continue to flip flop though,but again I'm not so concerned about Richard and South Florida at the moment. What happened to that advertised cold front or strong shortwave which was supposed to plow thru the middle to later part of the week.

[Sanibel]

NAM was unreliable with Matthew and tried to take it through the Yucatan Channel as well.

[Ntxw]

NAM was unreliable with Matthew and tried to take it through the Yucatan Channel as well.

I remember that, created quite a buzz as Richard is atm. A lot were put into the idea of Matthew skirting the Yucatan coast and boom. Didn't happen. NAM is about reliable beyond 48 hrs as the GFS is 100+ hours tbh.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS is further south than 18z and has a landfall in Nicaragua.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[cycloneye]

00z GFS makes a second landfall in Belize after it emerges in the Gulf of Honduras.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS coming in with an even stronger ridge and no trough digging into the GOM this run.

18z GFS



00Z GFS

[ROCK]

Man, I went into hibernation for awhile and here we have Richard.....just going by recent guidance I would say a Yuc landfall is pretty good bet. Need to do my homework before I venture to guess what happens afterwards......heat potential though or MHP looks ok to me....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

granted if the upper air environment is condusive to intensification after the exit....


good to be back....

[Vortex]

HWRF/GFDL roll within about an hour

[Vortex]

If the short wave doesnt draw it north next tue-wed then ridging per gfs builds back in late in the week and it probablly washes out over ca with nowhere to go....