ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Really amazing. I believe this is the system the Euro and GFS are wanting to develop later on around the Islands.

[KWT]

Nah Ivanhater the ECM takes this NW/NNW towards the Azores region eventually in 5-7 days time, I'm not sure about the GFS mind you!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the lack of deep convection is the only thing keeping NHC upgrading 90L to at least TD status.


If the convection starts to fire over the developing LLC, I would not be the least surprised they may upgrade it to tropical storm status given the impressive structure of the system.

This maybe the best looking CV invest this season, and it is occuring in late October. Really amazing.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2010102200, , BEST, 0, 103N, 242W, 25, 1009, LO

[wzrgirl1]

19 storms this season?

That was my prediction during the poll at the beginning of the season. Hey where is the link to that thread anyway...I can't find it.

[cycloneye]

19 storms this season?

That was my prediction during the poll at the beginning of the season. Hey where is the link to that thread anyway...I can't find it.

This is our Storm2k forecast forum,where all the contests are posted. You can check the 2010 poll here.

viewforum.php?f=25

Ok,after that,lets return to the 90L theme.

[Florida1118]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

Remain at 30%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220537
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RICHARD...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 960 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

impressive

[HURAKAN]

quite impressive

[HURAKAN]

convection on the increase

[cycloneye]

Down to 30%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE NOT CHANGED IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 90, 2010102300, , BEST, 0, 155N, 254W, 25, 1009, LO

moving NNW

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH OF THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Extratropical94]

AL, 90, 2010102318, , BEST, 0, 185N, 297W, 30, 1008, LO

latest

[HURAKAN]

AL, 90, 2010102412, , BEST, 0, 204N, 343W, 30, 1009, DB

moving NW now