ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#701 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:31 pm

Plane will do the second pass from NE to SW shortly.
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#702 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:37 pm

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#703 Postby CajunMama » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:43 pm

Just a note...if you're going to post satellite pics please upload them, don't direct link. Those that are going back to read posts they've missed during the day are now seeing a black pic.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#704 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:45 pm

Houstonia wrote:Nice - maybe Southeast Texas can actually get some rain out of Richard. :-)

cycloneye wrote:http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/3066/204914w5nlsm.gif


Not a chance. The cold front will be moving south through Houston shortly after the 5-day point of the forecast track, bringing cool, dry weather back to our area. Richard's remnant moisture will accelerate NE-ENE along the front Thu-Fri, possibly toward south Florida.
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#705 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:59 pm

AL, 19, 2010102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 821W, 40, 1007, TS

40 knots
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#706 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:22 pm

Decoded second vortex message. At the end they remark something interesting about a large light.What may be that?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 01:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 0:49:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°45'N 82°12'W (15.75N 82.2W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 252 miles (405 km) to the SSW (192°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 754m (2,474ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 116° at 36kts (From the ESE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 8 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 0:06:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (53°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
LARGE LIGHT AND VAR WIND CENTER
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#707 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:Decoded second vortex message. At the end they remark something interesting about a large light.What may be that?

LARGE LIGHT AND VAR WIND CENTER


lol! It means they found a large center with light and variable winds.
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#708 Postby Vortmax1 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:41 pm

Latest center fix:


Image
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#709 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:52 pm

Image
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#710 Postby Vortmax1 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:09 pm

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 21 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM RICHARD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0519A RICHARD
C. 22/0800Z
D. 16.0N 81.0W
E. 22/1130Z TO 22/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0619A RICHARD
C. 22/2000Z
D. 16.0N 81.6W
E. 22/2330Z TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0719A RICHARD
C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.2N 82.4W
E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE BUOY DEPLOYMENT MISSION FOR 23/1400Z.
C. PROBABLE G-IV FLIGHT TAKING OFF AT 23/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL FLY A SERIES OF RESEARCH MISSIONS
BEGINNING WITH A G-IV TAKEOFF AT 22/1730Z. THE P-3
WILL TAKE OFF EVERY 12 HRS STARTING AT 23/0200Z.
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#711 Postby Vortmax1 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:17 pm

Takeing a way back look...this storm is not much to look at now.


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#712 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:39 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#713 Postby Buck » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:46 pm

I think he's finally starting to get his act together. His envelope is starting to take on a better and more evenly distributed shape.
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#714 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:47 pm

^^^
I agree. Strengthening phase tonight.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#715 Postby Ad Novoxium » Fri Oct 22, 2010 11:35 pm

What meteorological differences are there between Richard and those from 2000's Keith? Just to ask for clarification.
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#716 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Oct 23, 2010 12:15 am

This thing doesn't seem to have moved much at all;

11:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 Location...17.5°N 81.1°W
11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 Location: 15.8°N 82.4°W
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Re:

#717 Postby 45NWOrlando » Sat Oct 23, 2010 12:33 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:This thing doesn't seem to have moved much at all;

11:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 Location...17.5°N 81.1°W
11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 22 Location: 15.8°N 82.4°W

3.04167 miles per hour.
'
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#718 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 23, 2010 2:57 am

AL, 19, 2010102306, , BEST, 0, 158N, 828W, 40, 1006, TS

still at 40 kt / 45 mph
tracking directly westward (last position was 15.8 N 82.1 W)
pressures are not falling
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#719 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:55 am

Latest NHC Advisory (5am, #10)
Winds still at 45 mph, Richard is not forecast to reach 'cane strength anymore...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230852
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...CENTER NEARING THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND
THE BAY ISLANDS
* EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...AND THE BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM RICHARD - Discussion

#720 Postby CourierPR » Sat Oct 23, 2010 5:06 am

Ex, take a closer look at the blue part you highlighted. It says he could be near hurricane strength by Sunday.
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