Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SAT OCT 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE INCREASING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. ALSO CU LINES DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA
AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. ALTHOUGH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE LIMIT THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN ENE WINDS WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THESE PASSING BANDS OF MOISTURE. MIMIC PWAT PRODUCT SHOWED A
RELATIVE DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IN
ADDITION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW PWAT VALUES...BELOW 1.5
INCHES FOR TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COMBINE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. NO CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA...
AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW PASSING SHRA WILL
MOVE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHRA ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. THIS MAY
LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR...INCLUDING TJMZ FM
24/18Z-24/22Z...IN MAINLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TONIGHT
GENERATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 87 / 40 20 10 10
STT 77 87 77 89 / 30 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

The SHIP intensity model has it as a cat 1 at landfall on the 18z run.

Code: Select all

791
WHXX01 KWBC 231845
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD (AL192010) 20101023 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101023  1800   101024  0600   101024  1800   101025  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  83.8W   16.3N  86.4W   16.6N  89.0W   16.7N  91.2W
BAMD    16.0N  83.8W   16.3N  85.6W   16.6N  87.5W   17.1N  89.6W
BAMM    16.0N  83.8W   16.3N  85.9W   16.4N  88.0W   16.5N  90.1W
LBAR    16.0N  83.8W   16.3N  85.3W   17.0N  87.1W   17.7N  89.0W
SHIP        55KTS          64KTS          72KTS          79KTS
DSHP        55KTS          64KTS          72KTS          63KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101025  1800   101026  1800   101027  1800   101028  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  92.8W   18.0N  95.1W   19.9N  96.8W   20.6N 100.4W
BAMD    17.6N  91.4W   19.1N  94.2W   21.4N  96.6W   22.8N  98.8W
BAMM    16.5N  91.9W   16.8N  95.2W   17.4N  97.8W   17.3N 101.6W
LBAR    18.5N  90.6W   20.4N  92.7W   21.7N  92.5W   23.0N  92.1W
SHIP        80KTS          76KTS          67KTS          57KTS
DSHP        39KTS          32KTS          23KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.0N LONCUR =  83.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  15.8N LONM12 =  82.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  81.6W
WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   75NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  60NM
 
$$
NNNN


[BZSTORM]

The SHIP intensity model has it as a cat 1 at landfall on the 18z run.

Code: Select all

791
WHXX01 KWBC 231845
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD (AL192010) 20101023 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101023  1800   101024  0600   101024  1800   101025  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  83.8W   16.3N  86.4W   16.6N  89.0W   16.7N  91.2W
BAMD    16.0N  83.8W   16.3N  85.6W   16.6N  87.5W   17.1N  89.6W
BAMM    16.0N  83.8W   16.3N  85.9W   16.4N  88.0W   16.5N  90.1W
LBAR    16.0N  83.8W   16.3N  85.3W   17.0N  87.1W   17.7N  89.0W
SHIP        55KTS          64KTS          72KTS          79KTS
DSHP        55KTS          64KTS          72KTS          63KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101025  1800   101026  1800   101027  1800   101028  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  92.8W   18.0N  95.1W   19.9N  96.8W   20.6N 100.4W
BAMD    17.6N  91.4W   19.1N  94.2W   21.4N  96.6W   22.8N  98.8W
BAMM    16.5N  91.9W   16.8N  95.2W   17.4N  97.8W   17.3N 101.6W
LBAR    18.5N  90.6W   20.4N  92.7W   21.7N  92.5W   23.0N  92.1W
SHIP        80KTS          76KTS          67KTS          57KTS
DSHP        39KTS          32KTS          23KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.0N LONCUR =  83.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  15.8N LONM12 =  82.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  81.6W
WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   75NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  60NM
 
$$
NNNN


thxs ur support is very appreciated. Still sunny with mild breeze, lots of the big boats headed out from North belzie to Rio Dolce and Big Creek behind Independence. Voluntary evacuations for Seine Bight village and Placencia

[msbee]

watching carefully, and wishing Belize well

[cycloneye]

Here is the 5 PM Discussion.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 232034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION STILL LOOKING A LITTLE DESSICATED. BANDING FEATURES
ARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THOUGH BANDS OF
RAIN ARE NOW AFFECTING HONDURAS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE EARLIER RECON DATA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD
TO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED. MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HONDURAS TO ALLOW
SOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...LGEM...AND
SHIPS MODELS. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NEW
FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MODELS.
DISSIPATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER
RICHARD ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/7 KT. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY
TOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY. RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 16.1N 84.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 85.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 87.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.8N 88.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 90.4W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 93.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 27/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[BZSTORM]

tonight calm no rain in South, except Punta Gorda which had a short squall around 4pm.
everyone listening to updates from NEMO on local radio channel. Voluntary evacuations still in place, all cayes residents advised to move by 6am tomorrow morning to mainland if they are going to move. Coastal areas and areas prone flooding residents again advised to make their move no later than 8am.
NEMO UPDATE: PHASE THREE – Warning. Third phase. Likely to strike within 24 hrs. [two red flags with black disks above each other] activated 1hr ago.

Thxs for all the support my carib storm2K friends, using the 5pm discussion projected 24hr, 36hr etc coordinated in google earth the project path for landfall looks to be approx 3 miles North of Riversdale (which is actually a huge banana, citrus plantation), this is the mainland area the Placencia peninsula is attached to & is approx 10miles as the crow flies from my house. Well aware of the 50-100 mileerror off error within the projected path. Waiting for the new coordinates at the 11pm to see if project path moved more south or north. This sorm is so big over its wind radius that there will be no part of the coast of Belize untouched, remember Belize is only 180 miles along its coast.

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM, here is a good site to follow with every advisory the closest point from your location.

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

[BZSTORM]

BZSTORM, here is a good site to follow with every advisory the closest point from your location.

http://stormcarib.com/closest4.htm

that is really cool tool thanks for sharing and great that it shows my calculations on google earth actually was pretty dead on.

[cycloneye]

11 PM Discussion and Track.

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT AT 925 MB...SURFACE SFMR WINDS OF 58-63
KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. A 2259 UTC SSM/IS OVERPASS
SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND THE PLANE REPORTED A FORMATIVE
20-25 N MI EYEWALL WITH A ROUGHLY 12 N MI RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TILT OF THE VORTEX MAY BE
GRADUALLY LESSENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL WESTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES...CALLING FOR A LESSER AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL AIR NEAR THE STORM CIRCULATION AND A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE WOULD ARGUE IN FAVOR OF THIS
TREND. ON THE OTHER HAND...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION
WITH LAND...THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD PORTEND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IN BELIZE. IF RICHARD SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...
REGENERATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
PROHIBITIVELY HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE INTENSITY
WAS INCREASED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 24 HR AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER
THAT.

USING RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06. THERE
HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD STEER RICHARD ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY TOMORROW AND INLAND OVER
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A WEAKENING
RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS...THEN A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 16.3N 84.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.5N 85.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 87.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.1N 89.4W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 90.7W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 93.0W 25 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 28/0000Z 21.0N 94.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Macrocane]

Take care BZSTORM tomorrow could be a hard day, keep us updated.

[Macrocane]

Interesting excerpt from the latest TWD:

THE 18Z GLOBAL MODELS...GFS AND NOGAPS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOIST SW MONSOONAL FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IN THE CARIBBEAN...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE OBSERVED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SW MONSOONAL WINDS ARE ALSO
INDUCING SEAS UP TO 9 FT S OF 13N E OF 110W...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Those who live in the Eastern Caribbean will have to watch for a possible Cyclone forming by next weekend.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST SUN OCT 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA OVR THE NEXT 36
HRS INCREASING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MID
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED ON A MID LEVEL HIGH OVR PR WILL
FLATTEN AND BE FORCED TO MOVE WEST AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND CUTS OFF N OF THE AREA MID WEEK. AN INVERTED TROF
PATTERN IS FCST TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THESE WILL WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG DRY
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING ON STRENGTHENING
ENE TRADES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A STRENGTHENING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PRETTY MUCH KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY TODAY
AND MONDAY. CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW.

MOISTURE INCREASES TUE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH
THAT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THAT SHOULD CONCENTRATE OVR SW PR ON A ENE STEERING FLOW.
SCT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE FREQUENT OVR NE PR ON
BREEZY ENE WINDS.

TRADE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES AND AN INVERTED TROF PATTERN DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LIKELY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A
LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM ACROSS THE SRN
CARIBBEAN NEXT SUN THAT COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL TREND IS FOR WETTER
CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH HALLOWEEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
24/16Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 24/17Z...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR...INCLUDING TJMZ IN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY SEAS
WITH 6-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY CARIBBEAN
WATERS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. BUOY 42060 HAS BEEN
REPORTING EAST WINDS AT 20G31KT. THIS HAVE PROMPTED ME TO ISSUE
SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. LIMITED THE SCA
TO 36 HRS BUT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 20 10 10 50
STT 87 76 88 79 / 20 10 10 20

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Those who live in the Eastern Caribbean will have to watch for a possible Cyclone forming by next weekend.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST SUN OCT 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA OVR THE NEXT 36
HRS INCREASING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MID
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED ON A MID LEVEL HIGH OVR PR WILL
FLATTEN AND BE FORCED TO MOVE WEST AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND CUTS OFF N OF THE AREA MID WEEK. AN INVERTED TROF
PATTERN IS FCST TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THESE WILL WANE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG DRY
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING ON STRENGTHENING
ENE TRADES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A STRENGTHENING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PRETTY MUCH KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY TODAY
AND MONDAY. CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW.

MOISTURE INCREASES TUE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH
THAT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THAT SHOULD CONCENTRATE OVR SW PR ON A ENE STEERING FLOW.
SCT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE FREQUENT OVR NE PR ON
BREEZY ENE WINDS.

TRADE WINDS WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES AND AN INVERTED TROF PATTERN DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LIKELY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A
LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM ACROSS THE SRN
CARIBBEAN NEXT SUN THAT COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL TREND IS FOR WETTER
CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH HALLOWEEN DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
24/16Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 24/17Z...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR...INCLUDING TJMZ IN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY SEAS
WITH 6-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY CARIBBEAN
WATERS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. BUOY 42060 HAS BEEN
REPORTING EAST WINDS AT 20G31KT. THIS HAVE PROMPTED ME TO ISSUE
SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. LIMITED THE SCA
TO 36 HRS BUT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 77 / 20 10 10 50
STT 87 76 88 79 / 20 10 10 20

hope that nothing will form after all that messy amount of rain we have endured this month in the EC:roll:

[BZSTORM]

after a rain squall guess its random outer band waking me up at 5.15am went to bed at 1am so runnning on adeline and lack of sleep pretty calm here right now last prjected path appears to be far north end of Dangriga town for landfall but again I know that can vary upto 50 miles this far out, dangriga for ref is 30miles aprox as crow flies from my house in Seine Bight. Being on peninsula we expect both lagoon and sea to surge as they did in Iris the surge was about 8ft for Iris and for about 15mins as my husband out it the lagoon and sea held hands. Peninsula isn't very wide. I will appoligize for any spelling typo error for the day now as when I do post it will be in between doing other stuff. If Dangriga is hit we will lose powere as our feed comes from there , no elec means my dsl modem won't work and I don't have luxury of generator (smile). Also DSL/Phone is overground not underground so a few down posts will mean coms down as well as elec. Power station will shut power off at least 2 hours before landfall.
Can someone who has link which shows surface winds/sterring currents please post link or image for me for today/moday, we are trying to figure brunt of wind direction to expect. Please please if anyone knows how to do those google recon graphics can they do that for recon even if its one image that shows the results of the recon flight after coompleted, The Europeans short comments at end of each data line yesterday evening ws very helpful.
I'm trying to figure how strong the winds will likely be 30miles south of dangriga. Not jsut for myself but for friends here and further South. TS Matthew because it was a bit of non event in Belize has created a sense of oh if this to North of us it won't affect su much. My gut still feels we will have 50kt winds with higher gusts 30miles from center of landfall. Hopefully we won't lose power till 2 or 4 hours before landfall. Will keep you updated as best as I can. As brunt of winds will be to the North of us, the caye caulker weather center link should show wind speeds to North pretty good.

[Gustywind]

after a rain squall guess its random outer band waking me up at 5.15am went to bed at 1am so runnning on adeline and lack of sleep pretty calm here right now last prjected path appears to be far north end of Dangriga town for landfall but again I know that can vary upto 50 miles this far out, dangriga for ref is 30miles aprox as crow flies from my house in Seine Bight. Being on peninsula we expect both lagoon and sea to surge as they did in Iris the surge was about 8ft for Iris and for about 15mins as my husband out it the lagoon and sea held hands. Peninsula isn't very wide. I will appoligize for any spelling typo error for the day now as when I do post it will be in between doing other stuff. If Dangriga is hit we will lose powere as our feed comes from there , no elec means my dsl modem won't work and I don't have luxury of generator (smile). Also DSL/Phone is overground not underground so a few down posts will mean coms down as well as elec. Power station will shut power off at least 2 hours before landfall.
Can someone who has link which shows surface winds/sterring currents please post link or image for me for today/moday, we are trying to figure brunt of wind direction to expect. Please please if anyone knows how to do those google recon graphics can they do that for recon even if its one image that shows the results of the recon flight after coompleted, The Europeans short comments at end of each data line yesterday evening ws very helpful.
I'm trying to figure how strong the winds will likely be 30miles south of dangriga. Not jsut for myself but for friends here and further South. TS Matthew because it was a bit of non event in Belize has created a sense of oh if this to North of us it won't affect su much. My gut still feels we will have 50kt winds with higher gusts 30miles from center of landfall. Hopefully we won't lose power till 2 or 4 hours before landfall. Will keep you updated as best as I can. As brunt of winds will be to the North of us, the caye caulker weather center link should show wind speeds to North pretty good.

Best thoughts and prayers for your my friend ! Thanks to keep us informed and continue to be very vigilant!
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

What Gusty said. Take care.

[BZSTORM]

Well had some contant rain for last hour winds picked up a bit a little while a ago but have jsut dropped off again.
A friend found this hurricane track site which shows nicely the "area for winds and speeds nice tool to have, looks like I can expect 39- 54mph winds. Hoever those to North of Dangriga gonna have it hard.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/ns/weather

[cycloneye]

Well had some contant rain for last hour winds picked up a bit a little while a ago but have jsut dropped off again.
A friend found this hurricane track site which shows nicely the "area for winds and speeds nice tool to have, looks like I can expect 39- 54mph winds. Hoever those to North of Dangriga gonna have it hard.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/ns/weather

Where are you located in relation to Belize City that appears in the radar but where you are doesn't?

[abajan]

Good morning. Those who live in the Eastern Caribbean will have to watch for a possible Cyclone forming by next weekend.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST SUN OCT 24 2010 ...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A
LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM ACROSS THE SRN
CARIBBEAN NEXT SUN THAT COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL TREND IS FOR WETTER
CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH HALLOWEEN DAY.
...

Thanks very much for this information, cycloneye. I have found these NWS area forecast discussions out of San Juan to be quite accurate and useful. As I had earlier stated, it’s been an usual October with a long dry spell punctuated with the odd shower even though it started out with significant rainfall. So it turns out that there has been no marked deviation from the average amount we normally accumulate in October by this date.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Those who live in the Eastern Caribbean will have to watch for a possible Cyclone forming by next weekend.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST SUN OCT 24 2010 ...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A
LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM ACROSS THE SRN
CARIBBEAN NEXT SUN THAT COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL TREND IS FOR WETTER
CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH HALLOWEEN DAY.
...

Thanks very much for this information, cycloneye. I have found these NWS area forecast discussions out of San Juan to be quite accurate and useful. As I had earlier stated, it’s been an usual October with a long dry spell punctuated with the odd shower even though it started out with significant rainfall. So it turns out that there has been no marked deviation from the average amount we normally accumulate in October by this date.

abajan,GFs is bullish with this.It forms a storm in the Southern Caribbean after moving thru the southern Windwards.Lets see the other models what they have,but in interesting that we may have the S storm.