ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[caneman]

Anyone think this will pull up NW before the models have indicated? If you look at the Water Vapor loop at the clouds to the very NW of Richard they sure looks like they are moving from SW to NE. Thoughts???

[GCANE]

Hot-towers firing over the LLC and in north Feeder Band.

[Macrocane]

No doubt that Richard looks better than ever, 990 mb and still no hurricane? I guess winds will soon respond to the pressure drop, I think the NHC will upgrade it to hurricane in the next advisory even if recon doesn't support hurricane intensity yet.

[Battlebrick]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 13:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:38:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°50'N 86°35'W (16.8333N 86.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 116 miles (186 km) to the ESE (113°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,353m (4,439ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 85° at 84kts (From the E at ~ 96.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 150° to 330° (SSE to NNW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) in the north quadrant at 13:33:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYE

Possible special advisory?

Edit: 1000mb (Surface) 60° (from the ENE) 73 knots (84 mph)

I say upgrade to 80 mph at 11.

[Macrocane]

Forget what I said, recon supports hurricane now . I don't think a special advisory a normal advisory would be released in less than an hour.

[cycloneye]

Possible special advisory?

I think is only a short time before the 10 AM CDT advisory that they can wait. Data supports 70kts.

[Battlebrick]

More of that dropsonde:

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb (Surface) 60° (from the ENE) 73 knots (84 mph)
995mb 65° (from the ENE) 65 knots (75 mph)
992mb 70° (from the ENE) 70 knots (81 mph)
988mb 75° (from the ENE) 88 knots (101 mph)
984mb 70° (from the ENE) 96 knots (110 mph)
976mb 70° (from the ENE) 90 knots (104 mph)
947mb 80° (from the E) 95 knots (109 mph)
876mb 90° (from the E) 87 knots (100 mph)
842mb 100° (from the E) 76 knots (87 mph)

100 mph+ in the higher elevations.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Based on the dropsonde and SFMR, I would put the intensity at 75 kt. (The FL winds only translate to 67 kt but with two other sources suggesting higher I would go with the higher estimate.)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 86.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[Sanibel]

A landfaller and only a small hand-full of people on the board?


Richard is just pulling up on the periphery of the High. Good over-water coverage now and ensuing intensification.

[Macrocane]

Finally Richard did it, the 10th hurricane of the season pretty impressive and to think that in early August some of us thought this season was not going to be as active as predicted.

[jinftl]

NHC 'official' forecast at 11am is for Richard to reach Cat 2 intensity or 100mph...which is interesting given that they only give Richard a 21% chance of reaching Cat 2 intensity...

[cycloneye]

Finally Richard did it, the 10th hurricane of the season pretty impressive and to think that in early August some of us thought this season was not going to be as active as predicted.

17/10/5,as you said impressive.More telling is the stat that no U.S landfall by a hurricane has occured.

Richard may do a last minute RI and go above the 85kts that NHC has before landfall as it looks very impressive.

[Sanibel]

Good thing for Belize it didn't do this 24 hours ago.

[Extratropical94]

If Richard hits Belize, wouldn't that be the most tropical cyclones to hit Belize since 1851?

Just to push this question up a bit because I'm interested, too...
Does anyone know about a hurricane season with three landfalls in Belize?
Or would 2010 mark the first occasion?

Richard may do a last minute RI and go above the 85kts that NHC has before landfall as it looks very impressive.

Well, hopefully it does not do a "Giri".

[SouthDadeFish]

I would say Rapid Intensification is almost likely judging by satellite appearance and the eyewall closing off quickly on radar.

[GCANE]

Last drop had theta-e at 365K in eye.

Usually that is border line for setting off RI.

[cycloneye]

144.9325 is the acual ACE number for the Atlantic,after the last update at 75kts.Richard has only two more ACE updates as landfall will occur after that.The only way I see Richard get to 150 (Hyperactive Season) is doing a strong RI to cat 4,but I dont see that occuring.

[SouthDadeFish]

They will not account for ACE after landfall?