Here is a look at the 00z ECMWF's depiction of the event:
Monday Evening:
Notice the tight pressure gradient setting up across the plains. In Oklahoma, for instance, the pressure ranges from near 985-987mb in the northwest to near 999-1000mb in the southeast. 850mb winds (a few thousand feet above the surface) are over 40-50 knots (46-58mph+) across a large area, and while friction will keep surface wind speeds lower than that, mixing throughout the day could bring down sporadic wind gusts in that range.
Tuesday Evening:
The low pressure center really bombs out Tuesday evening across the upper midwest, reaching a minimum central pressure of 964mb according to this run of the ECMWF. The pressure gradient also becomes very tight around the low center, meaning very windy conditions are likely for the area surrounding the low. High wind warnings are possible over a large area with a setup like this.
Here are a few randomly selected forecast discussions from the regions to be affected:
Norman, OK
MONDAY... PRESSURE FALLS WILL KICK IN TO LEE OF ROCKIES AS NOSE OF
STRONG UPPER JET... STILL 160 KT OR SO AT 250MB... PUNCHES E
ACROSS KS/OK. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 0-1KM WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...
WHICH SUPPORTS SUSTAINED 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS 45-55 MPH. NW OK
USUALLY GETS THE STRONGEST WINDS... BUT IN THIS CASE SPEEDS MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS HIGH THERE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
KS. WIND ADVISORY ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE
MORNING ON... MOST LIKELY FROM N TX TO W-CENTRAL OK AND NE INTO
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL OK.
Lubbock, TX
LONG TERM...
STRONG WINDS STILL EXPECTED MONDAY AS A POTENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY
MAX ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ROLLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER SPEEDS WITH LIFT ABOVE PERHAPS LEADING TO PERSISTENT HIGH
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY PANHANDLE AREA THAT MAY COUNTER MIXING ABILITY
TO SOME EXTENT. ANYWAY...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 25-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY REQUIRING A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY LEADS TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW-POINTS THAN MODELS CAN PRODUCE
SO WE CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST ELEMENTS THAT WAY.
Dodge City, KS
IN ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPS IN THE N/NE WILL ALSO BE BUMPING UP
THE WINDS AS ALL MODELS SUGGEST A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BL/MIXED LAYER/85H WINDS ALL SUGGESTING AT
LEAST WINDY CONDITIONS. COULD EVEN SEE WINDS APPROACH WIND ADV
CRITERIA SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
WIND ADV MONDAY AFTERNOON.
Omaha, NE
CONCERN SHIFTS TO INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SPEEDS EASILY INCREASING TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AS
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. H85 WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA APPROACH 50 TO
55KTS...AND SHOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS...WITH EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. IN FACT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED THAT WE WILL BE MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA OF 40 MPH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NORTHERN HALF THE CWFA WITH WIND GUSTS EASILY
APPROACHING 50 MPH. STILL JUST SLIGHTLY BEYOND OUR 48 HOUR WIND FOR
ANY WATCH...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO FOR NOW AND
CONSIDER A WATCH IN LATER FORECAST SHIFTS.
Twin Cities, MN
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OVER
20 MB IN 18 HOURS BY ALMOST ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS IT EVOLVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN MN. USING THE GFS...ANOMALIES
OF FOUR TO FIVE STANDARD DEVIATIONS OCCUR ON ALMOST ALL KEY
VARIABLES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. THE STRONGEST DEVIATION IS ON
850MB WIND COMPONENTS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE 55 TO 60 KTS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE FIRST PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS
DIMINISH LITTLE THROUGH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. USING THE CIPS ANALOG DATABASE LOOKING AT PAST EVENTS
OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE...NOVEMBER 8TH 1986 AND NOVEMBER 10TH
1998...THERE WERE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 KTS ACROSS THE MN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE ALMOST A
DEFINITE...WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA POSSIBLE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE WINDS...FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
MAIN ISSUE IS DEALING WITH STRONG WINDS WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.
NAM HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS/ECWMF TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THEY DEEPEN A 985MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO
AROUND 970MB IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND DEEPENS
FURTHER TO AROUND 965MB JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BORDER WITH ONTARIO CANADA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AROUND A 20MB
DEEPENING IN 24 HOURS...NEARLY BOMB CYCLOGENESIS CRITERIA.
THIS STRONG LOW SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONG 50 TO 60 KNOT 850MB LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE POINTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHOW WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT ELEVATED TALL SKINNY CAPE. THUS...MAINTAINED HIGH POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE AT TIMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 KNOTS LIKELY AT TIMES. 50 KNOT GUSTS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...IF ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM MIXING IS REALIZED. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...AND LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE
MORE LOOK AT THE WIND TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING ON A HIGH WIND WATCH OR
WIND ADVISORY. IT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD WIND ADVISORY SITUATION FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
