Upcoming week - October 18-24

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

Last week was, in short, a disaster for me. It is thankful, though, that Paula was such a small storm and effects were limited, and that nothing else of warrant took place. As for Paula itself, I predicted the timing of development correctly as happening on Monday. But I had Paula being a weak tropical storm that would rain itself out into Central America – instead, it became an impressive, but small, C2 hurricane and re-curved gradually into Cuba as a dying tropical storm, and dissipated shortly after that. I also predicted Richard to form during the weekend – well, Invest 99L is here, but no Richard. Lastly, well, at least I predicted no other developments in the Atlantic. I can only take small solace in that and the good timing of development for Paula. With the rest of the week being the disaster it was and Paula being so important, I’m not sugarcoating anything: I flat-out deserve an F for last week.

Well, at least I can’t do much worse this week, right? Let’s get to it!

Current situation and models

Invest 99L is disorganized in the southwestern Caribbean, very close to Central America. Models were, for a while, predicting a significant to storm to take place during this upcoming week, but most, such as the GFS and Euro, have backed off significantly. In fact, some do not develop this until it reaches the Eastern Pacific, if it does develop at all.

Pouch PGI61L has also been designated in the Main Development Region. The Canadian and NOGAPS models have been developing something out in this area, but have little support from other models.

Elsewhere, nothing is imminent this upcoming week, looking at the models.

Recent history

Surprisingly, during this upcoming week, only two storm developed in the Caribbean, but one was a biggie: Mitch in 1998. The other was Alpha in 2005. This is often looked as “the” spot for development and hurricane threats as most likely to happen, but perhaps the peak has passed. Well, what if we look at storms that were present in the Caribbean as the week began? Continuing the surprises, only one storm was in action as the week began! It was another biggie, though: Wilma in 2005. So yeah, the peak for October storms in this area does indeed appear to have past, looking at the past 15 years.

Yet, looking further out, other substantial storms have still formed in later periods in recent years, such as Michelle, Beta (which was in fact close to this upcoming week!), Paloma, and Ida. Maybe this is more of a “lull” week than anything. Or there’s that theory that it’s too soon after Paula came and went for something significant to come – like Earl, followed by Fiona, earlier this year.

Looking at PGI61L, it is very surprising, but two storms have actually formed in that vicinity since 1995 during this upcoming week: Sebastien in 1995 and Jose in 1999. Sebastien was very disorganized, but at one point still was near hurricane strength. Jose actually pulled it off impressively, becoming a C2 storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles! It is not out of the realm of possibility that PGI61L could develop, looking at this trend. That said, it’s still two storms in the last fifteen years in this area during this upcoming week. The last one before Sebastien to fit the mold was Holly in 1976, which also became a hurricane…but 19 years prior, and 23 prior to the next hurricane.

So what does this all tell us?

It will be difficult for Invest 99L to develop, being close to land, having gone from plenty of model support to very little, and with history surprisingly against it. Yet, if it does, Mitch and Wilma show that it could very easily become a very dangerous hurricane.

Pouch PGI61L may have two recent storms to go by, along with the Canadian and NOGAPS models. However, two storms in 15 years…that’s still not very good odds. With the last one before this period being in 1976, the odds lessen further. There needs to be a lot more model support, in my opinion, to predict PGI61L will do anything other than produce rain showers to the ships and sharks of the Atlantic before reaching the Lesser Antilles.

Back to looking ahead

Last week was a colossal failure. I would really like to have a good week to more than make up for last. OK, with that said, let’s start with Invest 99L. There is simply too much working against this disturbance now than there was even just a few days ago. With it being so close to land and model support dwindling – now the forecast is still somewhat challenging being that this is still a climatologically favored spot for the month of October in general – but it will be tough. This is also a much tougher week to see activity in the Caribbean than the week before. I predict no tropical cyclone development for Invest 99L. Confidence is 70%.

Pouch PGI61L is very simple: I predict no tropical cyclone development for this tropical wave. Confidence is 85%.

Finally, I predict no other tropical cyclone development anywhere else in the Atlantic, and that this will be the first full week without any storms since the period between Colin and Danielle. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Evaluating last week

Back to looking ahead

Last week was a colossal failure. I would really like to have a good week to more than make up for last. OK, with that said, let’s start with Invest 99L. There is simply too much working against this disturbance now than there was even just a few days ago. With it being so close to land and model support dwindling – now the forecast is still somewhat challenging being that this is still a climatologically favored spot for the month of October in general – but it will be tough. This is also a much tougher week to see activity in the Caribbean than the week before. I predict no tropical cyclone development for Invest 99L. Confidence is 70%.

Pouch PGI61L is very simple: I predict no tropical cyclone development for this tropical wave. Confidence is 85%.

Finally, I predict no other tropical cyclone development anywhere else in the Atlantic, and that this will be the first full week without any storms since the period between Colin and Danielle. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

Sorry, I don't understand your confidence percentages. How can you be 70% confident 99L will not develop and 85% confident that PGI61L will not develop, and yet 90% confident that NEITHER will develop so that this will be a week without any storms? Shouldn't your confidence level on neither developing be less than your confidence that one of them will? Or is the difference that your idea of whether or not one of them will develop separately includes chances of them developing after this week?

[Migle]

[/quote] Sorry, I don't understand your confidence percentages. How can you be 70% confident 99L will not develop and 85% confident that PGI61L will not develop, and yet 90% confident that NEITHER will develop so that this will be a week without any storms? Shouldn't your confidence level on neither developing be less than your confidence that one of them will? Or is the difference that your idea of whether or not one of them will develop separately includes chances of them developing after this week?[/quote]

That 90% is that nothing else develops, not talking about 99L or PGI61L. So he isn't predicting a storm anywhere in the base during the week. lol, did I explain that right?

[Andrew92]

That's correct Migle. 70% chance that 99L doesn't develop and an 85% chance that PGI61L doesn't develop.

The 90% chance is that nothing else besides those two develops. The last line clearly says "Finally, I predict no other tropical cyclone development anywhere else in the Atlantic..."

-Andrew92

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

That's correct Migle. 70% chance that 99L doesn't develop and an 85% chance that PGI61L doesn't develop.

The 90% chance is that nothing else besides those two develops. The last line clearly says "Finally, I predict no other tropical cyclone development anywhere else in the Atlantic..."

-Andrew92

OK, but your original sentence was "Finally, I predict no other tropical cyclone development anywhere else in the Atlantic, and that this will be the first full week without any storms since the period between Colin and Danielle. Confidence is 90%."

The "and" in there implied to me that your 90% confidence was about BOTH there being no other developments AND this being the first full week without any storms since between Colin and Danielle. And it wasn't logical for you to have 90% confidence about the second clause of the sentence given your previous statements.

[Andrew92]

Ah, I see what you're saying, maybe I could have worded that a little better. But yes, I meant 90% of any other developments.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Time to evaluate, another rough week it was....

Well, I predicted no tropical cyclones to develop last week, including Invest 99L. Unfortunately, that one did develop, and then some – becoming Richard, and then a hurricane before making landfall in Belize. So that gets an F right there. Elsewhere, nothing else developed. Invest 90L was designated off the coast of Africa, but nothing consequential has come from it so far, or from anything else. Therefore, my prediction for the rest of the Atlantic certainly gets an A. The Richard part of the forecast has to be given the most weight though, I’m afraid. Anytime a hurricane forms and makes landfall anywhere, it’s big news for where it hits at the time, even if it’s a C1 and ends up causing minimal damage, which I pray is the story that comes out of this storm. Overall, my grade for this week is a potentially very generous D.

Last week of October coming in just a couple minutes.

-Andrew92