WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[Infdidoll]

Wow...this thing is really blowing up on satellite...I'm surprised. More than once, I've looked at the ECMWF forecast and this storm and said, "Haha...you've finally got one wrong!" Guess I'd better get to the commissary before they raise the TCOR and it becomes a stampede.

ECMWF seems to be freakishly accurate. I continue to be impressed.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.9N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.3N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.1N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.0N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.9N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.6N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 130.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z.//


WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION
BANDING WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 241929Z TRMM 36H MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED, AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC AND
IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. A 240000Z AND 241200Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS TRACKING OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA AND DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED DUE TO CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION TRENDS, MODEL GUIDANCE, AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW.
B. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RE-ORIENT AND
WEAKEN WITH THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN
MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE TROUGH AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD AND AROUND TAU 96, TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. AT THIS TIME, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT SHOULD INITIALLY WEAKEN TS 16W AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD IN THE
TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD, EXCEPT FOR GFDN
WHICH ERRONEOUSLY INTENSIFIES TS 16W AND TRACKS IT WESTWARD. THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A NORTHWARD TURN WITH NOGAPS
AND GFS TURNING THE SYSTEM LATEST AND THEN TRACKING THE SYSTEM
TOWARD OKINAWA. THE ECMWF, WBAR, AND UKMO MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD MORE SHARPLY SOUTH OF OKINAWA, INDICATING THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH TO INDUCE A
RECURVATURE SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND IS RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFDN
WESTWARD TRACK ERROR.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

The shear really let up around this system,

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think this will be the 4th major typhoon of the season, the microwave shows an eyewall beggining to form, the shear has relaxed and it only needs to improve the outflow in the northern half to start a period of steady or even rapid intensification.

[Infdidoll]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think this will be the 4th major typhoon of the season, the microwave shows an eyewall beggining to form, the shear has relaxed and it only needs to improve the outflow in the northern half to start a period of steady or even rapid intensification.

Agree with your analysis. This one is looking really, really good right now. Very rapid development in the last 24 hours alone and virtually non-existent shear. Looks good to go. Water temps up here have cooled off...that might weaken it a little before it gets to mainland Japan. There are people here praying for a typhoon...They told me it helps nurture the coral reefs and gives the island a good cleaning. Still looks like it may be far enough to the east to give us nothing more than another windy day, but we'll see.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I still think it will remain E of Okinawa, but hey cmon! No more typhoon! I enjoy snow forecasting! Where's the snow?

[Infdidoll]

Or maybe we could be in for more than I've been expecting...track keeps shifting back this way and they're now thinking a possible Cat 2 storm? In that case, I'd better pick up some beer while I'm out, too.

[Infdidoll]

I still think it will remain E of Okinawa, but hey cmon! No more typhoon! I enjoy snow forecasting! Where's the snow?

My kids got to see snow for the first time, earlier this year. I grew up in Cincinnati, so I was used to a little of all weather. Then ended up out in Cali for about six years of temperate, but boring weather, then on to Okinawa, where you definitely don't see snow. It was kind of funny watching their reaction to REAL snow and to watch them play in it. My son told me, while warming his hands up that it was more fun watching snow on TV. "It's too cold!" 5 year-olds are fun.

They get excited whenever I start cleaning the house because I tell them a typhoon might be coming. They think 'Typhoon' is a person...and then they ask if Typhoon is bringing any kids they can play with. So far, they think Typhoon is a really flaky dinner guest.

[StormingB81]

Wundergrouns computer model shows it coming right next to Okinawa and NOGAPS has it coming over us. Just be prepared for the worse and hope for the best

[Chacor]

JMA at 45 kt at 03z, up from 40 at 00z. Waiting or 06z fix... wouldn't be surprised to see a T3.5.

[StormingB81]

Ive heard people say watch this one hit us because it will be here on a weekend..I was like that would be my luck

[RobWESTPACWX]

Have you ever wanted to toss a computer out the window because it was being a pain.. ? LOL Any how I made up some thoughts on this storm guys, let me know what you think please?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiKbX1lmeBA[/youtube]

[Chacor]

As I expected, JMA have indeed put out a satellite Dvorak fix at T3.5 at 06z. Could have a severe TS within the hour. Slow start, fast developer...

[StormingB81]

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp2t.png

You know according to this JTWC is the only one to the east the others or 1) way west and the others are right over Okinawa

[Chacor]

50 kt STS, as called.

[Chacor]

55kt at 1200z from JMA.

[StormingB81]

Okinawa is now TCCOR 3

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

Kadena needs to update their webpage, they still show you in cor 4...

http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/