WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

chaba looks to be rapidly strengthening. this looks like a major typhoon in the making

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like this Halloween weekend is going to be a soaker in Japan.

GFS MODEL

[StormingB81]

looks like oki has nothing to worry about this one is going to turn

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[StormingB81]

See this is what has me worried..ANother Typhoon is going to miss us. The mental thinking here is oh they all miss us anyway. I am afraid we will get that one typhoon noone prepares for and it will be a hige disaster...

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1014 CHABA (1014)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 19.0N 129.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM EAST 140NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 20.5N 128.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 271800UTC 21.8N 128.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 281800UTC 24.0N 128.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =



WTPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 018
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.3N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.2N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.2N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.5N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 29.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 34.1N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 129.3E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
IS CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND
INTENSIFYING THEREFORE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. POLAR
OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING WHILE GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TYPHOON CHABA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN PROVIDES
FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TYPHOON CHABA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72 AND SHOULD ENTER A ZONE OF RAPIDLY INCREASING
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR NEAR TAU 96. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTWARD-TRACKING (AND ERRONEOUS)
GFDN GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//



TXPN26 KNES 252113
SIMWIR
A. 16W (CHABA)
B. 25/2030Z
C. 18.8N
D. 129.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.5 BASED ON .8 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 4.0.
FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
=

[Infdidoll]

See this is what has me worried..ANother Typhoon is going to miss us. The mental thinking here is oh they all miss us anyway. I am afraid we will get that one typhoon noone prepares for and it will be a hige disaster...

That is the mentality here, but I don't think it will be a huge disaster. A few idiots might just run out of beer for a few days or won't have enough water to bathe and flush their toilet because they didn't put enough aside. Those who do take such things seriously, though, can either loan it to them or point and laugh.

After seeing what these things do in other countries, however, I always feel relieved when I hear it's coming here. Just about everyone lives within concrete walls. There might be the danger of a few mudslides in the northern region, but for the most part, there aren't huge flooding concerns. The only huge disaster I could foresee would be a direct hit super typhoon, a storm surge high enough to scaled the sea walls, etc.

This one seems like it will be close enough to ruin all your plans, but not near enough to at least get you out of work and school, too.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, some of the outer rain bands already making there way towards OKI.

[StormingB81]

I saw that. Cold fron is still wayto the WEST of us...Some are saying that this storm may get here before the cold front...thats would mean a hit near Okinawa. This is going to be an interesting day watching this storm. Wil lthe cold front get here on time or will we get a typhoon

[StormingB81]

Starting to look really good.

[RobWESTPACWX]

You know I may haft to start worrying a little about this one. Good thing I'm on vacation, I won't haft to sortie with the boat if need be.

[StormingB81]

Rob what do you think. I hear some saying that it may get here before the cold front and Okinawa could feel the full force of this storm..you think it is a POSSIBILITY seing how these things are unpredictable

[Chacor]

JMA 4.5 on the satfix. Should have an upgrade to typhoon.

[Chacor]

JMA have upgraded to a 70kt typhoon.

[RobWESTPACWX]

IT will defiantly get to OKI before with no effect from that front, but I think should still remain to the E of the Island. I think your going to get some Gale Force winds max... Are you still in COR IV or III now though Storming?

[StormingB81]

Who knows. The BX said TCCOR 3 but everything else says 4...

[StormingB81]

I see some models though now starting to turn the storm west into us. thats why i said an anxious day od storm watching today

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya, I'll probably put out two videos today, got one up here in a min, but you can tell I stayed up late last night (kid kept me awake) LOL I'm like blahhh.....

[RobWESTPACWX]

This Shot here really shows how much this storm has organized...

[StormingB81]

I was seeing that. It could be a long couple of days. I am going to fill up my gallon of water jugs today before I head home..Im gonna act like it is hitting us and just be prepared