Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

Yeah but remember thats when the resolution shift occurs at 192hrs, so its probably no weaker its just the system 'looks' weaker because the resolution goes way down and thus the model can't 'see' the true pressure of the system anymore.

[x-y-no]

Yeah but remember thats when the resolution shift occurs at 192hrs, so its probably no weaker its just the system 'looks' weaker because the resolution goes way down and thus the model can't 'see' the true pressure of the system anymore.

Ah, ok ... that's a point I neglected to consider. It did seem pretty odd - I couldn't see any dramatic change in upper air conditions to account for it.

[dwsqos2]

The gfs from hour 0 to 384 is stultifyingly dull. Also, 200 mb winds over much of the Atlantic remain relatively strong for the entire prognosticated period. This is vomit-inducing for anyone who wants to see a tc.

And, I need a ridge over the Southeast, a nice 588 dm ridge.

[gatorcane]

Gfs has been very constistent in the long-range in developing a Caribbean system that could impact the greater antilles

[gatorcane]

It's very consistent with this feature. More west in this run:

[Macrocane]

I think it will develop, the GFS has been the best model this year to predict cyclogenesis in the long range, I wouldn't be surprsed if it drops develpment just a few days before the system actually develops as it was the case with Paula and Richard.

[gatorcane]

12z Euro also shows a reflection at 240 hours in the central Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

GFS continues on showing development run after run. Development starts much sooner than this, but showing the end of the run here:

00Z:


06Z:

[gatorcane]

ECMWF showing a reflection as well:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0102400!!/

[GCANE]

ESRL's FIM Global Model very aggressive 144 hrs out.

[GCANE]

ESRL's FIM 200 Hrs Out

[GCANE]

Well developed 216 hrs out with strong latent-heat flux in the eyewall.

Will be interesting to see how this experimental model pans out.

[wxman57]

Look near 8N/28W and you'll see the disturbance that the models are developing. Strong tropical wave with good mid-level rotation.

[Blown Away]

Look near 8N/28W and you'll see the disturbance that the models are developing. Strong tropical wave with good mid-level rotation.

Looks like a track that would stay away from Bahamas/CONUS after crossing PR.

[GCANE]

The convection that is firing from the TUTT / 90L interaction will help the wave.

It'll keep the tropopause high over the wave and give it good mid-level moisture.

[CourierPR]

Look near 8N/28W and you'll see the disturbance that the models are developing. Strong tropical wave with good mid-level rotation.

Looks like a track that would stay away from Bahamas/CONUS after crossing PR.

Do you have a link to something that shows such a track or are you giving your opinion?

[wxman57]

Look near 8N/28W and you'll see the disturbance that the models are developing. Strong tropical wave with good mid-level rotation.

Looks like a track that would stay away from Bahamas/CONUS after crossing PR.

Do you have a link to something that shows such a track or are you giving your opinion?

I have something. This is the GFS prediction of mean 700-400mb flow for next Wednesday. The system is between Jamaica and Haiti (predicted). Note the deep trof across the eastern U.S. and NW flow all across the Gulf. This would indicate a northerly turn around the DR or eastern Cuba. Could be a threat to the Bahamas, but probably not to the U.S.

00Z EC indicates a similar pattern along the East U.S. Coast, but with the trof axis a bit farther west than the GFS predicts. That's why it turns the storm northward near western Jamaica vs. east of Jamaica as per the GFS and Canadian.

[FireRat]

Looking at the models looks like Scary Shary's gonna be a trick from Halloween

[GCANE]

Look near 8N/28W and you'll see the disturbance that the models are developing. Strong tropical wave with good mid-level rotation.

Too bad Predict went back to school early.

Would be able to get a lot of good data.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS