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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Hurricane Richard in W Carib

#7181 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 2:00 pm

The ECMWF is on board with a Caribbean development.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Hurricane Richard in W Carib

#7182 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 2:43 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST SUN OCT 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL MAINTAINING A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. EXPECT A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EVOLVES
NEARBY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS NOTED ABOVE...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND INTERACT WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY
MID-WEEK AND BEYOND...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT...AS MID
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EVOLVES NEARBY AND EVENTUALLY
RESULTS IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 25/16Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 25/16Z...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR...INCLUDING TJMZ IN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 12 TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FOR EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN BEGINNING AT 6 PM
AST THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
UPCOMING SJUCWFSJU FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 76 87 / 30 30 50 50
STT 77 88 79 88 / 20 20 20 20

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Re: Caribbean - CA Weather Thread=TS Alex in Western Caribbean

#7183 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:15 pm

msbee wrote:Actually , according to wundeground, this one is from San Pedro

Image

and I think the one you posted, Luis, is from Caye Caulker
Image

Both of those locations are north of Belize city, if i am not mistaken.
and BZSTORM is South of Belize City.
am I right, BZ?


Yes both locations North of BZ City but not by much San Pedro/Ambergris Caye is about 12 Miles North and caye Caulker is about 6miles further north than San Pedro. San pedro reported 3 ft waves breaking the beach around 1pm BZ time, they are no more than 6 miles from the edge of the barrier reef. I'm located about 66 miles as crow flies from Belize City.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Hurricane Richard in W Carib

#7184 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:36 pm

The very good news BZSTORM is thay we can see you in the forum,meaning that your connection has not gone out yet.

Here is the cam showing how strong are the winds in that location.

Image
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#7185 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:52 pm

I have just had power flash on & off so will have to shut down soon, Belzie city just lost electricity, a poor lady is crying on radio right now that next to her house a lamppost is on fire and she worry for her house catch on fire too. we are the most serious part of the storm now for the north, were are startignt o get heavier squalls of rain in South winds prob about 10 kts and picking up. Another lampost reported to have fallen on a house, thankfully empty. If I have internet/power in few hours will report in then, for now good evening everyone its 5pm here right now.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Hurricane Richard in W Carib

#7186 Postby msbee » Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:26 pm

I hope everyone in Belize will be safe
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Hurricane Richard in W Carib

#7187 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:56 pm

msbee wrote:I hope everyone in Belize will be safe



I join on that. Hopefully,BZSTORM can come as soon things calm down to report on what has occured in Belize.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Richard Aftermath

#7188 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:24 pm

BZSTORM, this post is to let you know the exact time and the distance from Belize City Richard made landfall.

HURRICANE RICHARD TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
805 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE...

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICHARD
MADE LANDFALL AROUND 745 PM CDT...0045 UTC...ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 90
MPH...150 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 745 PM CDT...0045 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Richard Aftermath

#7189 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:11 am

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST MON OCT 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BY THE THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EVOLVES NORTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT
A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND SECTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. THESE SHALLOW AND SPOTTY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IF ANY...SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES AND TRADE WINDS
WEAKEN ...THEREFORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EVOLVES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS FOR ALL TAF SITES. ENE WINDS
15G25KT FOR ALL TAF SITES THRU WED. SFC WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-KT
AFTER 22Z WITH NOCTURNAL INVERSION. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSRA
INCREASE TUE AND BEYOND AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SUBSIDENCE CAP
WEAKENS. TRADES WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THU.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 12 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 9 FEET
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THERE IS A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...EXCEPT
THE SOUTHWEST WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 10 50 50 30
STT 87 78 88 78 / 10 20 20 30

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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Richard Aftermath

#7190 Postby tropicana » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:49 am

Phillip Goldston Airport in Belize City has seen 43.7mm of rain in the 24 hours to 7pm CT Sunday, and another further 102mm of rain in the 12 hours that ended at 7am CT this morning (Monday). This is in excess of 6 inches in total.

-justin-
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Richard Aftermath

#7191 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:08 am

Very good news from Belize as initial reports reveal no deaths nor injuries so far. Lets see if BZSTORM comes soon to see what occured with more details.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39826998/ns/weather
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Richard Aftermath

#7192 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:06 pm

In San Salvador is raining again, it's the 3rd time that we see rain on this unusually dry October, it seems that this week may be a little wet according to the models.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Richard Aftermath

#7193 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:19 pm

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST MON OCT 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EVOLVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATTELITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A
RELATIVE DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL HELP TO LIMITED THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...EACH AFTERNOON...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. IN CONTRAST...THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
FOCUS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY EVOLVES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY MID WEEK. THIS COULD
GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN...AN INDUCED TROUGH
WILL BRING A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR...
INCLUDING TJMZ IN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. LLVL WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND REMAINING LIGHT TO
MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS RESULT...LOCALLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SEVERAL MARINE ZONES
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 86 / 50 50 30 30
STT 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 30 30

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#7194 Postby BZSTORM » Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:44 pm

Good afternoon everyone, we had pretty much countrywide blackout around 5pm last night as the eye made landfall. Our electricity was recently restored in the South and they hope to have majority of rest of country restored by tomorrow night. I understand in Belize City the South Side was hit hardest, trees down, roofs off some homes, some homes collapsed in winds but also from trees or lamp posts crashing on houses. Belmopan the capital was badly hit and personally I know of 2 friends who lost roofs there. The eye according to local radio passed Belmopan around 8pm last night. Spanish Lookout which is near San Ignacio reported they recorded winds at 92mph as the eye passed them. Lots of trees, building damage and electrical lines came down along the path of the hurricane. I heard near Belzie City a few of the high power tension electrical lines came down, there was a report of a whole roof near Belmopan which flew off and landed up on electrical lines. Friend in Belize city said boats in a marina were washed on shore and one boat washed up right across the main road. His house had minimal damage and found out the glass doors he's bought as hurricane proof - were not hurricane proof. Dangriga sustained collapsed houses, trees down and roof damage, power lines down.
On the placencia peninsula we had hardly any winds but constant rain till 4pm when winds picked up a bit and rain was heavier - winds swung from NE - SE during the night no more than approx 20 kts. Rain started dropping off around 8pm on th peninsula. If Richard had ahd more time to get bigger the damage would ahve been allot worse, but much like Hurr Iris 9 years ago, it was a compact hurricane doing the most damage in 20 mile radius from the eye.
Belize Gov & NEMO just had press conference and gave preliminary report from assessment made starting 8am today by fly over. First NO deaths related directly to Hurricane Richard. aprox 4600 ppl were in shelters. 400 homes have sustained serious damage i.e. collapsed , walls missing, whole roofs gone, currently approx 200 ppl are homeless . Major losses for citrus industry 30% overall loss - estimated $19.5million BZD orange, $9.6 million BZD grapefruit mostly from the Stann Creek Valley area. Initial estimate cost for recovery work, i,e making repairs clearing debris - $3.6 million BZD. $33.8 million BZD damages, this doesn't take into account reapirs to roads,bridges, or tourism industry. These are preliminary figures as many smaller villages still haven't been assessed.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Hurricane Richard in W Carib

#7195 Postby BZSTORM » Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:The ECMWF is on board with a Caribbean development.

Image

Image

Image


Sorry that looks to be in your neck of the woods pls tell me its not going to come in Belize's direction, we need time to clean up and recover
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Re: Caribbean - Central America - Richard Aftermath

#7196 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:04 pm

BZSTORM,that is a good detailed report of all of what occured there.The most important thing is that no deaths occured.But those homeless people are the priority now and I am sure they will be in a home very soon.

About the models showing a new Caribbean development,is not probable that if anything develops,go to Belize because the pattern by early November will not allow for a westward track.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#7197 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:41 am

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST TUE OCT 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT THRU WED. DEEP CUT OFF LOW FCST TO EVOLVE N OF THE
AREA WED AND MEANDER THRU THU BEFORE IT LIFTS OUT TO THE NE LATE FRI.
SFC TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SUBSIDENCE CAP AND TRADE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AND RESULT IN HIGHER CVRG ACROSS SW PR THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SHOULD ALSO SEE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CVRG AT NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA. SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS AFTERNOON CAN
BE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON. FOR WED NIGHT...TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH WITH COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRONGER INFLUX OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVIER SHOWERS SO HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO NRMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.

THU...AREA WILL BECOME UNDER THE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
65-KT H25 JET STREAK THAT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. MOISTURE LACKING SOMEWHAT BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD COMPENSATE.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NMRS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED AREA WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE CVRG AS DEEPER CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY GET STEERED MORE TOWARD NORTHEAST PR/SAN JUAN METRO
AREA UNDER STRONG SWRLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS. MOISTURE GETS
DEEPER AS WEEKEND APPROACHES BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE FRI. SO EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON TSRA THAT
SHOULD LIKELY GET STEERED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER THAN TO WRN
PR.

TRADES RETURN BY SUN AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT AFTERNOON TSRA TO CONCENTRATE MORE OVR WRN
PR.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
26/16Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. AFT
26/17Z...EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR...INCLUDING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJPS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SAT. SEAS GENERALLY 6-8 FEET ATLC WATERS
ON ENE WIND WAVES BUT MODERATE NE SWELLS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 77 / 20 40 40 70
STT 87 77 88 77 / 20 30 20 40

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#7198 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:49 am

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#7199 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 26, 2010 5:49 am

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#7200 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 26, 2010 2:22 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE OCT 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AT LEAST THU THURSDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHEN A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH AND REACH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION
WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON
HOURS. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH
JET DYNAMICS TO BECOME NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE ON SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESS NORTHWESTWARD THE WIND
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST... BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THU
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO COULD GENERATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJPS. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 10 TO KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS
GENERALLY 6-8 FEET ATLC WATERS ON ENE WIND WAVES. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SEVERAL MARINE ZONES DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

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