#183 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:54 pm
WTPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.6N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.9N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.3N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 35.8N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 129.1E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MARKEDLY IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE INTENSIFICATION. A 252132Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE AND INCREASINGLY WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN COLD TOPS OVER
THE LLCC DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 77
KNOTS FROM RJTD. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WELL
DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72 HAVE BEEN INCREASED.
B. TYPHOON CHABA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A STEADY POLEWARD TRACK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48.
THE STORM WILL SUSTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN PROVIDES FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN A VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL UNTIL IT PASSES EAST OF THE STORM. THIS
WILL INDUCE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS TY 16W ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GFDN, FORMERLY AN OUTLIER TO THE EXTREME
WEST, HAS NOW JOINED THE PACK AND IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
OF OKINAWA.
C. A RECENT COLD SURGE OVER WESTPAC HAS BROUGHT CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR DEEP INTO THE THEATER, THEREFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSISTION WILL
BEGIN BEFORE THE STORM REACHES 30N. TYPHOON CHABA IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE AND TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU AFTER TAU 72 WHILE
UNDERGOING A RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE RECURVATURE WILL
NOT BE A DRAMATIC TURN AND ACCELERATION DUE TO A ZONAL ORIENTATION
OF THE POLAR FRONT JET DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ZONAL JET, HOWEVER,
WILL PRODUCE TREMENDOUS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 NORTH
LATITUDE. THEREFORE TYPHOON CHABA IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID
DE-INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS PERIOD OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
DURING THE SAME PERIOD,THE STORM WILL BE RIDING OVER A REGION OF
RAPIDLY DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS AND EGRR BOTH STEER
THE STORM OVER SHIKOKU AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, PUNCHING IT
THROUGH A 100 KNOT POLAR FRONT JET AND OVER THE JAPANESE ALPS. THIS
SOLUTION IS INCOHERENT AND IS DISREGARDED. BECAUSE THE CONSENSUS
INCLUDES BOTH NOGAPS AND EGRR, THE FORECAST IS TO THE
RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER
BUT VERY CLOSE TO ECMWF. ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE BEST HANDLING OF THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK THUS FAR.//
NNNN
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