Plains/Midwest Windstorm and Svr. Weather (10/25 - 10/27)

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WARRENSBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...KNOB NOSTER...CONCORDIA...SWEET
SPRINGS...CORDER...HOUSTONIA...ALMA...FAYETTEVILLE...AULLVILLE AND
EMMA.

THIS WILL IMPACT

I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 47 AND 69.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI.

[Dave]

GRlevel3 at 1235 AM EDT



Red boxes = severe thunderstorm warnings.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1142 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1138 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FAYETTE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOBERLY...ARMSTRONG...HIGBEE...CLARK AND RENICK.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT.

* AT 1141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF BRANDON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WINDSOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANDON...COLE CAMP...FLORENCE...
IONIA...LINCOLN...MORA...PALO PINTO AND SYRACUSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1143 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HIGBEE...OR
12 MILES SOUTH OF MOBERLY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTRALIA...PARIS...SANTA FE...STURGEON...MADISON...WOODLAWN...
GRANVILLE...DUNCANS BRIDGE AND HOLLIDAY.

[Dave]

going to grab some sleep, be back in the morning.

[snoopj]

They went with a High Risk over much of the Ohio Valley area.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
INDIANA...OHIO...KENTUCKY AND LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
AREA...FROM THE TN VLY INTO MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND LWR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL /100 KT/ MID LVL JET STREAK NOW OVER MO WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY
NE ACROSS THE OH VLY TODAY AND INTO THE LWR GRT LKS TONIGHT/EARLY
WED AS ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW OVER ERN SD MOVES SLOWLY NE INTO
ONTARIO...AND BAND OF STRONG UPSTREAM FLOW OVER THE RCKYS SPREADS E
ACROSS THE PLNS.

AT LWR LVLS...DEEP SFC LOW NOW OVER MN LIKELY WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY N/NE INTO ONTARIO. COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD AS THE
FRONT ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS TODAY...AND OVER
THE LWR GRT LKS/APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.


...MS/OH VLYS INTO GRT LKS/APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...

SVR TSTMS NOW IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID MS VLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND AND FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

INTENSE WIND PROFILES INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT... INCREASING
LOW LVL MOISTURE...AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD FOSTER FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF MID/LWR MS VLY QLCS THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES GENERALLY E ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS. AS THE MAIN UPR
VORT LOBE NOW OVER IA/MO SWEEPS NE IN A NEGATIVE-TILT FASHION TOWARD
THE UPR GRT LKS...EXPECT THAT FORCED LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
SMALL BOWS ALSO WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS MI. POTENTIAL WILL THEREFORE
EXIST FOR SWATHS OF DMGG WIND...AND FOR TORNADOES /ONE OR TWO
POSSIBLY STRONG/...WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES.

A BIT FARTHER S AND E...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAK OVER KY...SW OH...AND THE TN VLY AS REGION IS
ONLY GLANCED BY IA/MO VORT. BUT VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES /WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING THAN POINTS N/...AND AVAILABILITY OF
INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S/...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW QUASI-DISCRETE
STORMS OR BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS CINH IS
BREACHED. THESE COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD A FEW STRONG AND LONG-LIVED
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL .

WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSE STORMS SHOULD EXIST
IN THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN...THE SVR THREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED BOTH AHEAD OF FAST-MOVING PART OF
COLD FRONT OVER THE UPR OH VLY AND THE NRN HALF OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND ALONG MORE SLOWLY-MOVING PART OF FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/NRN GULF CST
STATES.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/26/2010

[CrazyC83]

Lots of tornado warnings now in effect in Indiana. Also a big number watch in effect, which really should be PDS given the numbers (95/60).

[CrazyC83]

This is common on nearly all the tornado warnings:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
947 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

INC013-071-093-105-261415-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-101026T1415Z/
BROWN-JACKSON-LAWRENCE-MONROE-
947 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAWRENCE...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHERN MONROE AND BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015
AM EDT...

AT 948 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
10 MILES NORTH OF BEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CHARLES DEAM WILDERNESS...NORMAN AND WOODVILLE HILLS AROUND 955 AM
EDT...
STORY...ELKINSVILLE...YELLOWWOOD LAKE AND FREETOWN AROUND 1000 AM
EDT...
STONE HEAD...SPURGEONS CORNER AND NASHVILLE AROUND 1005 AM EDT...
GNAW BONE AROUND 1010 AM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 8670 3908 8670 3931 8610 3898 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1348Z 240DEG 50KT 3900 8643

$$

77/TDUD
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Infdidoll]

Here I am, in the Western Pacific, stationed away from home and getting ready to be hit by a typhoon and I'm worried about everyone back home. A friend of mine in Southern Michigan just said they now have a tornado warning as well...and many counties in Indiana:



Stay safe!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, crazy weather out there today, stay safe there guys. Absolute huge system!

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN THROUGH NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261354Z - 261500Z

SCATTERED BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH
NRN MS IS BEING MONITORED FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THREAT
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME...BUT IF TRENDS BEGIN TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEEPEN OR INTENSIFY A WW WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL. OTHERWISE...WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE OF CONVECTION FARTHER WEST
APPROACHES THIS REGION.

THIS MORNING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES FROM MIDDLE TN
SWWD THROUGH NRN MS AND IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
ASCENT. THE CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
INDICATED...AND MORNING RAOB DATA FROM BIRMINGHAM AND NASHVILLE
INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 750 MB. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW BREAKS WITHIN A MULTILAYER CLOUD DECK WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODEST WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DIABATIC WARMING IN
ADDITION TO EWD ADVANCING ZONE OF ASCENT MIGHT EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AT LEAST ONE CONVECTIVE
RESOLVING MODEL SUPPORTS PRE-FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION. IF CONVECTION
INDEED DOES DEEPEN/INTENSIFY...LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...LINE OF
STORMS FARTHER WEST IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25 KT AND WILL APPROACH
THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AROUND 16Z.

..DIAL.. 10/26/2010


ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 35068822 36508743 36498576 35708532 34508582 33778706
33858867 35068822

[CrazyC83]

Here I am, in the Western Pacific, stationed away from home and getting ready to be hit by a typhoon and I'm worried about everyone back home. A friend of mine in Southern Michigan just said they now have a tornado warning as well...and many counties in Indiana:

Stay safe!

Yeah it is a very dangerous situation. That IN/OH/KY watch should be PDS IMO (I also sent an e-mail to the SPC wondering).

[Bunkertor]

Vid from Indi

http://www.wishtv.com/subindex/weather/video_forecast

And current standing

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 930 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 720...WW 721...WW 722...

DISCUSSION...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEEPENING
FROM N-CNTRL MS NWD TO E OF MKL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO TSTMS
LATE THIS MORNING WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
WARMING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 300-400 M2/S2...MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGEST A THREAT LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...MEAD

[Bunkertor]

that was fast

TORNADO WARNING
MSC033-093-137-261515-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0096.101026T1443Z-101026T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
943 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTH CENTRAL TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 943 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LEWISBURG...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF HERNANDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BYHALIA...
LEWISBURG AND RED BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8963 3477 8949 3468 9005 3475 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 244DEG 52KT 3476 8997

$$
BORGHOFF

[CrazyC83]

Might be PDS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261446Z - 261545Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN LOWER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...WHERE A STRONGLY SHEARED AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-LINEAR
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS /APPARENT IN AREA VAD
WIND DATA WITH NEARLY 50 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/ WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A RISK OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
OR TWO.

..ROGERS.. 10/26/2010


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42078539 43808471 44008432 43998267 43078238 42068318
42078539

[CrazyC83]

Threat increased to the south.

SPC AC 261611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF OH/KY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF LOWER MI/OH/KY/TN/MS/AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD TO MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF
STATES...

--SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK UNDERWAY WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES INTO TONIGHT--

...GREAT LAKES REGION SWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE TSTMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING FROM LOWER MI SWD THROUGH OH/TN VALLEYS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INTENSE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEEP
OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER NERN MN SEWD THROUGH LAKE MI AND CNTRL
IND...AND THEN SWWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF KY/TN TO SERN AR/NRN LA AS
OF 15Z. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS LARGELY IN
THE 60S AND PW VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO 500-1500 J/KG OVER THE TN
VALLEY INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES.

STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO DYNAMIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND
100-110 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD IN
PLACE AND RESULTING INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR... ONGOING QLCS WILL
REMAIN COMPOSED OF BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
EXIST ALONG FRONT AND WITHIN OPEN WARM SECTOR TO MAINTAIN MULTIPLE
BANDS OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE MORE DISCRETE NATURE OF ONGOING STORMS
OVER WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS...A POTENTIALLY GREATER RISK FOR
LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

THE DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.
REGENERATIVE/BACKBUILDING WAVES OF SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF MS/AL/NRN GA OWING TO THE SLOWER SEWD
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FRONT.

FINALLY...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE WAVES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. HERE...LOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN. DETAILS IN THIS SCENARIO REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THEREFORE NO
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MADE AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 10/26/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1618Z (12:18PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS AND A PORTION OF CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 721...

VALID 261626Z - 261730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 721 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 721 WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH
THAT WILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL MS.

PRE-FRONTAL CLEARING IS DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN A
CORRIDOR FROM NERN LA THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN MS. DESPITE THE WARM
AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...MLCAPE IS
LIMITED TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS N-CNTRL AND NRN MS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A COUPLE OF INVERSIONS. ONE LOCATED AROUND 750 MB AND A
WEAKER INVERSION NEAR 500 MB THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. DESPITE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MIGHT STILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN
THIS REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY
VEER AND WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 10/26/2010

[srainhoutx]

NOUS43 KDLH 261554
PNSDLH
MNZ010>012-018>021-026-270000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1055 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...MINNESOTA ALL TIME LOWEST PRESSURE RECORD BROKEN THIS MORNING...
...PRESSURE IS STILL FALLING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...

REMEMBER THAT THIS INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY. THE LOW IS STILL
STRENGTHENING SO THE VALUES LISTED BELOW ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.

AN UNUSUALLY INTENSE LOW WAS AFFECTING THE STATE OF MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. AT 1013 AM CDT...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM AT
AITKIN MINNESOTA RECORDED A 962.3 MILLIBAR /28.42 INCHES/ PRESSURE.
THIS BREAKS THE ALL TIME MINNESOTA STATE RECORD FOR THE LOWEST
OBSERVED PRESSURE.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 962.6 MB SET ON NOVEMBER 10 1998 AT ALBERT
LEA AND AUSTIN IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT DULUTH BROKE THEIR PRESSURE RECORD. AS
OF 1028 AM...THE PRESSURE AT DULUTH WAS 962.9 MILLIBARS /28.44
INCHES/. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 964.3 MILLIBARS WHICH
OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 10 1998.

PRESSURE RECORDS AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS WERE ONLY AVAILABLE BACK TO
1948. THE LOWEST PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY AT THAT LOCATION WAS 971.9
MILLIBARS ON OCTOBER 10 1949. THE PRESSURE AS OF 1024 AM WAS 967.4
MILLIBARS /28.57 INCHES/. THEREFORE...INTERNATIONAL FALLS ALSO BROKE
THEIR PRESSURE RECORD.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FALL. THEREFORE...THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND WILL BE UPDATED
ONCE THE LOWEST PRESSURE IS FINALLY OBSERVED.

THE LOW WAS AT ABOUT 983 MB ONLY 24 HOURS AGO OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THAT IS A PRESSURE DROP OF ABOUT 21 MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS.

$$

LAMERS