Global model runs discussion

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GCANE
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1861 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:39 pm

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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1862 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:45 pm

GCANE, you mean coast of South America, right?
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1863 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:09 pm

CourierPR wrote:GCANE, you mean coast of South America, right?


Yes, South America.

Should have been explicit.

12Z Euro is digging a deep low on the east CONUS at 240 Hrs, by the time this is forecast to be in the mid Carib.


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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1864 Postby Steve H. » Mon Oct 25, 2010 3:52 pm

I know, this will be the super storm we are waiting on. A triple phasing monster that pulls moisture from a tropical storm into a low pressure system dropping through the Southern Mississippi valley and bombing off the SE US coast, riding up the coast to the Canadien maritimes. But seriously, this tropical wave in the Atlantic that is being picked up by some of the models could slip through the Caribbean and hook around Jamaica in the 10-day period. Something to watch for. Cane season ain't over yet :double:
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1865 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 25, 2010 8:35 pm

Steve H. wrote:I know, this will be the super storm we are waiting on. A triple phasing monster that pulls moisture from a tropical storm into a low pressure system dropping through the Southern Mississippi valley and bombing off the SE US coast, riding up the coast to the Canadien maritimes. But seriously, this tropical wave in the Atlantic that is being picked up by some of the models could slip through the Caribbean and hook around Jamaica in the 10-day period. Something to watch for. Cane season ain't over yet :double:


I am worried about Haiti.
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#1866 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:13 pm

Huge trough looks like it plunges into the gom and se united states by day 10. Both the gfs and ecmwf show this. That would usher in 30s all the way down to the northern gulf coast.

No threat to the united states if that pattern holds. That front may put an end to any more threats to the united states as the gulf is really going to cool down after this front.

Chances are increasing the united states may not get hit by a single hurricane this season.
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Re:

#1867 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:Huge trough looks like it plunges into the gom and se united states by day 10. Both the gfs and ecmwf show this. That would usher in 30s all the way down to the northern gulf coast.

No threat to the united states if that pattern holds. That front may put an end to any more threats to the united states as the gulf is really going to cool down after this front.

Chances are increasing the united states may not get hit by a single hurricane this season.
This potential system would be in the Caribbean, not the Gulf.
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Re:

#1868 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:Huge trough looks like it plunges into the gom and se united states by day 10. Both the gfs and ecmwf show this. That would usher in 30s all the way down to the northern gulf coast.

No threat to the united states if that pattern holds. That front may put an end to any more threats to the united states as the gulf is really going to cool down after this front.

Chances are increasing the united states may not get hit by a single hurricane this season.
The final line of your post is a given considering we are nearing the end of the season.
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1869 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:22 pm

The latest model runs shows that strong trough picking really fast the system not giving it much time to strengthen in the Caribbean, it's still too early to know with certainty how strong the low/trough off the East Coast of US will be, if it is weaker the system may have more time to strengthen.
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1870 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:43 am

10/26 OOZ FIS 200 Hrs Out

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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1871 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:57 am

00Z Euro leaves the system behind in the Caribbean

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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1872 Postby blp » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:47 am

Thanks for providing this model. I had never heard of it before. I have attached below a link I found that give more information.

http://fim.noaa.gov/fimdocu_rb.pdf

GCANE wrote:10/26 OOZ FIS 200 Hrs Out

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#1873 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:17 pm

The 12Z gfs is quite meager. Easterly shear and proximity to South America seems to cause some issues; ironically, too much ridging may be the problem this time.
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1874 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:17 pm

blp wrote:Thanks for providing this model. I had never heard of it before. I have attached below a link I found that give more information.

http://fim.noaa.gov/fimdocu_rb.pdf

GCANE wrote:10/26 OOZ FIS 200 Hrs Out




First I heard of it too.

Will be interesting to see if it pans out as a good long-term forecaster.
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1875 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:29 pm

The 12Z Canadian does very little with the nice wave. This is terrible news for tc-lovers that such a tc-happy model does so little with this system.
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Re:

#1876 Postby CourierPR » Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:08 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:The 12Z gfs is quite meager. Easterly shear and proximity to South America seems to cause some issues; ironically, too much ridging may be the problem this time.
Pressures are forecast to lower next week in the Caribbean. Any developing system will be able to tap plenty of moisture.


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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1877 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:43 pm

When I say ridge, I am referring to the upper levels. On the gfs there is a closed 1248 dm contour for a period of time next week, and the wave appears to be on the south side of this. This would expose the wave to some fairly stiff easterlies.

The Euro is blah through 168. The bad news continues.
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1878 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:00 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:The 12Z Canadian does very little with the nice wave. This is terrible news for tc-lovers that such a tc-happy model does so little with this system.


And your NOT a TC lover...is that what your trying to say? :lol: :lol: :lol:



The Euro is blah through 168. The bad news continues.



You've been setting it up like this all season...and it always turns out the way you said it wouldnt for some off reason keep it up though, I wanna see more storms! Just for fun I looked up the models after reading this and I will tell you what I saw...


CMC develops Shary in 30 hours. At 42 hours it sees a low near 60W, both areas become both Shary and Tomas.

GFS shows two interesting areas that the CMC sees but develops neither. It is hard to say whether or not that will or will not verify, but it does indeed see a low setting up at the end of the run in the South Carib.

Nogaps is completely nada.

HWRF is consistent in seeing a low west of 90L developing, alongside CMC.

GFDL sees the same low but keeps it weak, BUT it develops 90L


My point here is there is a whole bunch of evidence we will see TCs dwsqos2. I am not so sure what you are talking about...
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#1879 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:47 pm

The trough by day 10 is a mega trough. Digs all the way down into the western Caribbean. Looks like yet again, a trough will arrive just in time to spare the u.s...from a hit.
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Re: Medium / Long Range Model Runs

#1880 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:09 am

Area around 40W looking pretty interesting this morning.

Convection even firing north of 10N.


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