DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Unlike the other two areas mentioned in the tropical weather outlook, this disturbance is not listed on the NOAA's areas Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/mainrfpa.png
The area is also mentioned in the TWD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N58W THAT
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N54W TO
26N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
50W-55W.
