ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection refiring, a few models did indeed develop this past 24 hours...we will see how it goes.


Looks like Invest 91L is soon to be as well.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

27/1145 UTC 26.8N 40.8W ST1.5 90L

no change

[HURAKAN]

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[Hurricanehink]

Back up to 30%

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Florida1118]

Nice Convection

[Florida1118]

NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Weatherfreak000]

I see this developing. As well as one of the other invests. 5 named storms in the month of October anyone?

[Florida1118]

If all 3 get names, we will only be 2 away from going Greek. Crazy.

[brunota2003]

Wow...looks like the Atlantic is trying to go out with a bang.

[HURAKAN]

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[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2010102800, , BEST, 0, 269N, 409W, 30, 1008, LO

[Hurricanehink]

Special TWO.

UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Special TWO.

UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[brunota2003]

Come on buddy! You can do it! You can do it alllll night longggg!

[Weatherfreak000]

Seems highly likely now that not only will we see one storm, we may see all three.



What is the record for most storms/ most active at once for october? We MUST be looking good now...

[Hurricanehink]

Seems highly likely now that not only will we see one storm, we may see all three.



What is the record for most storms/ most active at once for october? We MUST be looking good now...

At 12z on October 9, 1990, Tropical Storm Klaus was located over the Bahamas (dissipated 6 hours later), a tropical depression was over Cuba (having just formed and would cause Klaus's dissipation), and the subtropical storm that later became Hurricane Lili was east of Bermuda. As far as I know, there was never an occasion of four storms at once in October.

[HURAKAN]

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