ATL : Ex SHARY - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
Wxman was exactly on the money. Shary and Tomas tomorrow imo very possible.

[Florida1118]

^^^
Wxman was exactly on the money. Shary and Tomas tomorrow imo very possible.

He was. I say 90L becomes Shary and 92L is Tomas...and then only 3 more to go until Greek if we bang these 2 out, and ACE will shoot up.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 281137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE
FORCE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
LOW IS FORMING WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[Cyclone1]

Wow, is it really almost Halloween? This year is awesome.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 92, 2010102812, , BEST, 0, 241N, 587W, 30, 1009, LO

no change

[HURAKAN]

Briefly talked with Richard Pasch and he's not impressed with this system at the surface.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        30    17    16    15    11     9    44    70    88    99    87    65    45
SHEAR DIR        243   254   237   265   283   233   224   223   221   227   241   263   281

Good shot at development in the next 24 hours, then shear increases to 99 knots according to SHIPS

[HURAKAN]

Inflow is improving

[brunota2003]

That definitely has the look of a subtropical depression or storm. Perhaps 70% at 2 pm?

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

Plane going tommorow afternoon if necessary.

1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 29/1400Z
D. 29.0N 65.5W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite good

[wxman57]

Clear LLC, convection near center. It all comes down to whether or not the NHC feels like naming it. Better chance of that due to the potential Bermuda threat.

[candycane86]

so where do you guys think this will end up in the long term? i was surprised when i logged on here and saw 3 different systems this late. wow. anything looking to actually be a threat?

[HURAKAN]

I was talking with John Cangialosi and he said that this system may have a 36-hour window for development and that it has been improving. Nonetheless, at least 2 hours ago he told me that they haven't been able to completely close a LLC and that's the only thing missing for a subtropical or tropical depression or storm to form. I would guess that chances for development may increase at 2 pm.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

[HURAKAN]

WTNT21 KNGU 281200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.6N 56.4W TO 24.9N 63.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 28/0600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5N 56.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT APPROXIMATELY 12 TO 17 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST UNDER A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DECREASED WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER DEVELOP THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291200Z.//

[KWT]

I'm a little bit surprised this one isn't higher then 60%, but I think recon will discover a storm tomorrow if it isn't upgraded before then...