ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 91, 2010102818, , BEST, 0, 77N, 504W, 30, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Keeps climbing in latitude.

[chrisjslucia]

To heck with the stupid percentage system. I see what I see on satellite. IF it develops (moving 18kt) it will be over a HUMAN's head in 3 days.

I think you're being a tad conservative there BVI, more like two days, especially if it keeps climbing latitude and says hello to Barbados.

[GCANE]

LLC looking a lot better than this morning.

[Vortex]

Btw, 12Z ECM continues to indicate it will meandor over the SW carribean for much of next week as ridging builds to the north late in the period

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N50W TO 13N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 07N49W
AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N-11N
BETWEEN 45W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 03N-15N BETWEEN 42W-54W.
ENHANCEMENT OF THE STRONGER ONGOING CONVECTION IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PROVIDED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 10N50W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

[bvigal]

To heck with the stupid percentage system. I see what I see on satellite. IF it develops (moving 18kt) it will be over a HUMAN's head in 3 days.

I think you're being a tad conservative there BVI, more like two days, especially if it keeps climbing latitude and says hello to Barbados.

You are SO CORRECT, Chris! I was being conservative!!

[HURAKAN]

AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery : looks good

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 28, 2010 11:09 am ET
ATLANTIC OCEAN

The third system is a well developed tropical wave located about 1000 miles to the southeast of the Windward Islands or just off the coast of South America near French Guiana and Suriname. The wave is moving toward the west-northwest between 15 and 20 mph.

Atmospheric conditions are favorable for development. There is a window of opportunity for the wave to develop an area of low pressure and become a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Windward Islands this weekend.

[HURAKAN]

ready for Halloween ... lol

[Bizzles]

ready for Halloween ... lol

LoL

[Macrocane]

LOL HURAKAN You've had some free time today, right?

[HURAKAN]

LOL HURAKAN You've had some free time today, right?

took 1 minute! I had the idea since yesterday

[SouthDadeFish]

28/1745 UTC 8.7N 50.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

That's a jump up from too weak.

[cycloneye]

28/1745 UTC 8.7N 50.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

That's a jump up from too weak.

And more north in latitude than 18z Best Track at 7.7N.

[Gustywind]

28/1745 UTC 8.7N 50.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

That's a jump up from too weak.

And more north in latitude than 18z Best Track at 7.7N.

that's big shift.... to the north.

[northjaxpro]

The more 91L gains in latitude and can avoid land interaction with SA, the greater probabilities that it will become a substantial tropical cyclone over time.

[GCANE]

Core is warming up fast.

[KWT]

Looking decent on the microwave imagery right now and as others have said it is gaining latitude now which is a good thing if this one is going to develop.

Think it has a good chance to be honest down the line as long as it does avoid land which is looking likely.

[HURAKAN]

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